In first quarter of 200s volume of transactions at KASE reached $5,051.5m, a 2.8 time increase against similar period of 2001
/IRBIS, Apr 2, 01/ - During the first quarter of 2002 total volume of transactions made in all sectors of the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) reached an equivalent of $5,051.5m, or KZT768.1bn. Compared to similar period of last year, turnover increased 2.80 times measured in dollars and 2.93 times measured in tenges.
Compared to previous, fourth quarter of 2001, volume of transactions made at the Exchange increased by 10.0% in dollars, and 11.9% in tenge.
Following is the table of volumes of deals made at KASE during those periods, as well as dynamics of the turnover structure of the Exchange (in millions USD unless otherwise indicated). The calculation was made in terms of dollars.
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To I quarter of 2001 To previous quarter
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Sector January- trend trend
of KASE March Jan-March --------------- Oct-Dec ---------------
market 2002 2001 m USD % 2001 m USD %
---------- -------- --------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------
Foreign 448.0 404.7 +43.3 +10.7 681.3 -233.3 -34.2
currency 8.9% 22.4% 14.8%
---------- -------- --------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------
Futures 228.4 0 +228.4 +100.0 520.9 -292.5 -56.2
4.5% 0% 11.3%
---------- -------- --------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------
GS 4,266.6 1,354.5 +2,912.1 +215.0 3,128.4 +1,138.2 +36.4
84.5% 75.0% 68.1%
---------- -------- --------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------
CS 108.5 42.1 +66.5 +158.0 262.5 -154.0 -58.7
2.1% 2.3% 5.7%
---------- -------- --------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------
Supranat-l 0 3.6 -3.6 -100.0 0 -0.3 0
bonds 0% 0.2% 0%
---------- -------- --------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------
Promissory 0.023 0 +0.023 +100.0 0 +0.023 +100.0
notes 0% 0% 0%
---------- -------- --------- -------- ------ ------- -------- ------
TOTAL 5,051.5 1,804.8 +3,246.7 +179.9 4,593.3 +458.2 +10.0
100% 100% 100%
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In March 2002 the volume of deals made at the Exchange increased 1.18 times against February both in terms of dollars and tenges.
Following is the table with the dynamics of the turnover of the Exchange in last 6 months, which is grouped by months and market sectors (both in KZT and USD).
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2001 2002
----------------------------- -----------------------
Year Indicator ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Month IX X XI XII I II III
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Est. m USD
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Foreign volume 156.2 227.7 204.1 249.5 151.8 139.5 156.7
currency % 20.4 21.0 13.8 12.3 9.2 8.9 8.5
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Futures volume - - - 520.9 97.8 49.0 81.6
% 0 0 0 25.7 6.0 3.1 4.4
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
GS volume 560.6 799.2 1,173.1 1,156.1 1,349.5 1,340.8 1,576.4
% 73.4 73.8 79.1 57.0 82.2 85.7 85.4
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
CS volume 45.7 55.7 105.5 101.4 42.5 35.7 30.3
% 6.0 5.1 7.1 5.0 2.6 2.3 1.6
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Supra- volume 1.76 0.27 - - - - -
nationals % 0.23 0.02 0 0 0 0 0
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Promiss. volume - - - - - - 0.023
notes % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
TOTAL 764.3 1,082.9 1,482.6 2,027.9 1,641.5 1,565.0 1,845.0
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Est. m KZT
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Foreign volume 23.1 33.7 30.3 37.5 23.0 21.2 23.9
currency % 20.4 21.0 13.8 12.3 9.2 8.9 8.5
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Futures volume - - - 79.7 15.0 7.5 12.5
% 0 0 0 26.0 6.0 3.2 4.4
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
GS volume 82.8 118.3 174.3 173.7 204.6 203.9 240.0
% 73.4 73.8 79.1 56.7 82.2 85.7 85.4
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
CS volume 6.7 8.2 15.7 15.2 6.4 5.4 4.6
% 6.0 5.1 7.1 5.0 2.6 2.3 1.6
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Supra- volume 0.26 0.04 - - - - -
nationals % 0.23 0.02 0 0 0 0 0
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Promiss. volume - - - - - - 0.004
notes % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
--------- --------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
TOTAL 112.9 160.3 220.3 306.1 249.1 238.1 280.9
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Supranationals - bonds issued by International financial organizations.
These data show that in March the Exchange's market was getting more active after a seasonal calmness related mostly to budgetary payments made by the results of last year. The foreign currency market expanded by 12.4% against February, the market of futures contracts - by 66.4%, and GS market - by 17.6%. The volume of GS deals in March was the highest in the whole history of the Exchange, though similar records are typical to the end of the year.
The only sector of the market of KASE, where the volume is still falling down, is the sector of corporate securities. Its proportion did not exceed 1.6% of all transactions made at the Exchange in March. This is the lowest figure for the last 13 months.
In the opinions of IRBIS analysts, CS sector "has not recovered" yet from the change in the Civil and Tax code of Kazakhstan. However, adaptation period is well behind, and it can be demonstrated by the admittance of five new issues of bonds to the official list of KASE securities under the highest category: Development Bank of Kazakhstan CJSC, SB Alfa-Bank OJSC, NAC Kazatomprom, Astana-finance OJSC (second issue) and Bank CenterCredit OJSC (second issue). This strong start of the year led to an increase in capitalization of the corporate bonds market of the Exchange by $98.1m or 16.7% during the last 1.5 months, which leaves good hope for future.
Still, the market participants can not resign themselves to the decline in yields of securities. KASE_BY index is at the lowest historical levels now, and repeats the dynamics of the rates on financial market as a whole. It is more likely that the major institutional investors should go for a compromise in April already, since the situation on the world raw materials markets is getting better and the Ministry of Finance will hardly go for the increase in yields of its bonds in spring or summer.
[2002-04-02]