National Bank of Kazakhstan forecasts normal behavior of the tenge

/IRBIS, Nov.21, 00/ - REUTERS informs, with the reference to the chairman of the National Bank, Grigorii Marchenko, that the bank does not see any reasons for the anxiety on the currency market till the end of the year. Everything is under control and absolutely quiet, he added. Today the U.S. dollar fell against the tenge down to KZT143.83 from KZT144.12 of the last trades. The bank chairman says that KZT144 per dollar exchange rate "reflects more balance" of the national currency and that the National Bank will buy the currency if it firms too much. Previously, the support level was around KZT142.6 - 142.7, now it about KZT143.9 - 144.0, he said. It was said that the National Bank is the only buyer of the dollars and it bought $15 mln yesterday and today in order to prevent excessive growth of the tenge. Last week we did not intervene, but if we do not intervene now, then the rate may go down to KZT142 or KZT140, which is not correct, he added. As he says the National Bank has three scenarios for the currency situation developments till the end of this year, which will depend on the exporters' behaviors. If our purchasing volumes remain at $60-70 mln a month, then the exchange rate will be relatively stable at KZT143.9 to KZT144 per dollar and we will try to keep this level, was said. If we have to buy $120-150 mln due to sales of the exporters, then we have to let the tenge to firm somewhat, that is, to KZT143 or KZT142.50 again, he added. Finally, if the exporters sales vanish on the market, then the rate may go up to KZT145, he said. It was reminded that the inflation equaled 6.9%, and devaluation of the tenge - 4.2% in 10 months of this year. In real terms tenge even firmed, was said. In early November the National Bank made a statement where it expressed its wish to see the exchange rate around KZT144 per dollar, and Mr. Marchenko said that the market had reacted correctly to the statement, and that further on the National Bank intends to influence the market morally. It was said that gold and hard currency reserves of the National Bank is at $2.2 bln which enables it to set the exchange rate technically, though the bank prefers not to intervene much so that the rate settles down by market factors.