U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, March 29, 00/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstani market for U.S. dollar (more than 98% of country's all currency market). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US dollar trades at the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) -------------------------- -------------- ------------- ----------- ----------- Instrument USD TOM USD TOM USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (ALM) 10:15-11:00 11:30-15:30 14:00-18:00 14:00-18:00 Weighted average rate 141.85(-0.10) Not indicated - - Volume of the session(mln) 2.580(-4.430) 1.435 0 0 Ask 141.86 141.86 *141.87 *141.90 Bid 141.87 141.88 - - Number of participants 15 9 5 5 -------------------------- -------------- ------------- ----------- ----------- Indicative US dollar quotations in the interbank market in the information system REUTERS at KASE sessions closing (disregarding settlement dates) -------------------------- -------------- -------------- ---------- ----------- Ask 141.81 141.88 141.88 Bid 141.85 141.96 141.98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: Best bid and ask prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange quotations. In case of absence of such in the trade system of KASE, the last quotations marked by stars are given (in this case, for USD_TOM - at 17:29, USD_SPOT - at 17:57PM). By indicative interbank quotations of the dollar in REUTERS information system, tenge lost 10 points in comparison with previous day closing on demand and 7 points on supply of the American currency. The day was interesting, and during its most part the banks worked under the obvious tenge deficiency. The money deficiency was confirmed today by the cancellation of next National Bank notes issue: demand was small and the offered yields could not satisfy the emitter. The quotations of interbank overnight tenge deposits already since morning were at 12-15/20% p.a. The deficiency forced some banks of the second tier to maintain a short-term liquidity at the expense of dollar sales basically on the morning session, where the objectively equilibrium market was observed. The interrogation of the dealers has shown that not all banks have the tenge deficiency today, but some banks of the second tier have the periodically arising problems or diverse banks of the second tier more correctly. In many respects heighten. The high tenge price is stipulated by the great demand rather than the objective deficiency. And demand is stipulated by the dealers' devaluation expectations caused by the National Bank behavior, as it looks from the direction of the traders, and also by presentiment of the jump in prices. It, in turn, in opinion of the dealers, will be aroused by inevitable tariffs growth, because it is impossible "to freeze" the tariffs indefinitely (as it attempts to do the Antimonopoly committee). TRK "HABAR" already has notified that RGP "Kazakhstan Temir Zholy" (railroads of Kazakhstan) has made a decision to increase tariffs by 15%. The power branch for a long time achieves permission to increase the power price. For this reasons literally each free tenge the banks prefer today to invest in the dollar. Understanding it the National Bank holds the overnights prices a little bit above the market' ones. However often the banks are compiled to sell dollar due to insufficiency its money base. Structure of the short money market in the financial capital is rather stable. The banks of the second tier have defined clients, which grant the short credits or invest in the tenge deposits. And when such habitual client suddenly begins to attract tenge (as a rule, due to completely local private reasons), the nervousness appears in the market and overnight quotations go up sharply. In opinion of Timur Gabasov (CITIBANK of KAZAKSTAN), just such schema has worked today. Such schema can explain, why after dinner the overnight quotations have gone downwards. In addition, as the dealers speak, one of the large banks has taken suddenly on the interbank market USD 12 millions. Under the presentiment of demand the dollar price has sharply increased. At the day session KASE dollar has increased from 141.82 to 141.88 at unusually large volumes. The indicative off-exchange quotations of USD have also started to grow. The market closure parameters show an opportunity of dollar strengthening at the basic session KASE on Thursday within the limits of 10 points. It is confirmed by the forward accounts parameters. Furthermore, at the moment of closing the overnight quotation have decreased to normal working values. And the SS redemption to the sum of 2,408.6 million tenges will be soon.