Keeping production limits of OPEC may cause summer irregular gasoline supplies in USA - FT

/IRBIS, Feb.22, 00/ - PRIME-TASS informs, with the reference to British Centre for Global Energy Studies, that keeping production limits of OPEC may cause summer irregular gasoline supplies in USA. It was said USA had 2 day less reserves in January of 2000 than it had in May of 1999, and Europe had 36 mln barrels less in January than in similar period of last year. US gasoline consumption usually grows from January through June by 1 mln barrels a day, therefore, the reserves should be replenished. There are several signs that OPEC will decide to increase the production in March meeting in Vienna. Some other sources say the decision has been already made though the details are still discussed. It is believed that Brent oil price would be $20-25 per barrel, since Saudi Arabia, as the most influential member of OPEC, has debts of 110% of its GDP. The country needs to receive $18 per barrel to cover the budget and $21 per barrel to cover its debt. Saudi Arabia believes $30 per barrel is too much, but it also considers $20 per barrel and below for Brent low as well. For oil price to equal $20 per barrel the production should be increased to 1.7 mln barrels a day from April of 2000. However, increase is not likely to be that much considering OPEC's fear of price collapse, though it may promise further increases in the future.