KASE: demand of the banks of the second tier for dollars remains high

/IRBIS, Jan.10, 009/ - The morning trades in US dollar, Deutsche mark and Euro were held at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) with TOD payment terms. 23 banks participated in the trades. Today the trades in US dollars opened at 138.51 tenge per unit. Total of 153 deals were made. Weighted average dollar exchange rate equaled to 138.90 (+0.18) tenge per unit. Volume of the session - $11,025 mln (-$4,885 mln). Exchange rate fluctuation during the trade reached 0.29% (mainly because of unjustified weak opening of the market). The trades were closed at 138.88/89 tenge per dollar. The market conjuncture practically did not change relative to that of last trades of previous week. It distinctive feature - high demand for the U.S. dollars of the banks of the second tier. The demand can not be called massive, though. Most of the trade participants were simply buying dollars, however, there were only 4 traders with volumes exceeding $1 mln. Supply monopolization degree, as on Friday, remained very high. Dollars were sold by 4 traders, but one of them accounted for 97.6% of all sales. The market found its equilibrium little higher than on previous session - about 138.88 - 138.90 tenge per dollar. Speculative component, as expected, was low. One hour after closing of the morning session on interbank market of Kazakhstan dollar was quoted at 138.91/96 tenge per unit, two hours later - 138.95/139.05. In the day session of KASE with TOD payment terms at 1:00PM the dollar was at 138.94/99. In IRBIS specialists' opinion, high and yet not declining demand of the BST is due to several factors. Dealers note during the holidays banks sold a lot of dollars through their exchange booths. Now, considering the situation in Russia and under the need to restore their currency assets, banks are closing their short positions and opening long ones. At the beginning of the year banks have accumulated many dollars in their correspondent accounts, banks became more solvent. Bank clients have also accumulated many orders to buy currency during the time when country's financial market was closed. Also, exporters' sales are not big enough. As a result, demand for dollars exceed their supply, tenge loses points. It should be said also, under the emergence of positive trend of the dollar exchange rate the shortest money has also grown. In the morning rates for interbank "overnight" deposits reached 6% on demand and 12% APR on offer. That is, the price of short money doubled. Yet, it does not imply deficit of tenge and "overheat" of the currency market. But, if the price of short money keeps rising at this pace, deficit of tenge may come earlier. More than that, repayment volume of SS in this week is insignificant. In case the deficit shows up the banks can not buy dollars so actively, and the exchange rate may stabilize. Deutsche mark, morning session, TOD: no deals. Closing demand - 72.51 tenge for mark, no offer. Euro, morning session, TOD: no deals. Closing demand - 140.78 tenge for euro, no offer.