By results of week it is impossible to speak about tenge collapse in the near future - analysts of IRBIS

/IRBIS, Nov.05, 99/ - The last week on the Kazakhstan exchange market is remarkable first of all by the dollar rate increasing on KASE. In three previous weeks tenge has slightly increased, though the speed of revaluation has been reduced gradually. The last market events testify to the next turn in the exchange rate dynamics. The message about cancellation in the near future of the obligatory sale of half of exporters' foreign currency earnings on KASE has acted as a signal to this turn. This message about the press-conference of Grigory Marchenko has appeared in some information systems. More correct, the future cancellation has been introduced earlier, but this time nobody doubt, that it will actually take place in the nearest future. It is necessary to add, that the cancellation of the one-percentage tax from the foreign currency purchasing by the natural persons was also promised. It is the important factor, because this tax provokes decreasing of the dollar demand from the population and, hence, the dollar has lost in the bank's opinion a part of its speculative potential. The changes have begun in the market on Thursday. Before it the dollar rate have been steadily reduced. It has been promoted by increase in volume of exporters' dollars sales in the beginning of November, and also by restoration of bank's currency net - positions under the influence of tenge rate increase. The last two days of week has shown, that anything extraordinary has not happened. On the exchange trades, in contrast to the previous days, the market has shown a pliability, and some attempts of banks to sell dollar more expensive has been successful. But the dollar rate has increased only to the strictly certain level. On Thursday they has not exceeded 140.17 tenge for dollar (though on the OTS market after dinner the dollar quotation has crossed this level), on Friday they has not crossed a level of 140.40 tenge. The Friday's "level of resistance" has been not crossed after dinner by the interbank quotations. The banks has possessed of free money for the dollar purchasing, but they have refrained from it. The banks' and their customers' behavior at the placement of the National Bank notes is indicative. The great demand at the not indexed note-35 placement on Wednesday testify to the market's trust in a stable tenge. The participants are not confused with the further decrease of the yield. Investors' accounts has been depleted by the Wednesday's placement, when 2.3 billion tenges were attracted, and the Thursday's note-42 placement has appeared not so successful. Demand has falls, and it can be explained also by doubts of the participants in result of the dollar growth during exchange session on Thursday. On Friday the National Bank has offered the indexed note-21, and the demand has reached almost 2 billion tenges at a current dollar rate. Judge by the notes demand on Friday the market has already "voted" for devaluation. But when the emitter has conducted rigid cutting off and has offered at the additional placement 7.14% instead of usual 7.31%, many participants have preferred to refuse to bay so expensive notes. Thus, behavior of the market participants in the last few days do not show the sharp change towards the dollar increase. Dealers and brokers "just in case" undertake security measures to be protected against possible tenge devaluation, which can be provoked by cancellation of hard currency obligatory sale. They has started with opening of the long positions, but they do not harry. There is an impression, that all decisions will be accepted proceeding just from the developing conditions. And it is still impossible to speak about tenge collapse in the near future. In opinion of the IRBIS experts, in the next week the dollar strengthening will proceed with the same speed (approximately 4-5% p.a.). At that the technical corrections of dollar rate downwards are possible on Tuesday and on Wednesday.