At KASE dollar exchange rate dynamics are still determined by traders' speculative behaviors

/IRBIS, Sept.01, 99/ - The next trades with the US dollar, Deutsche mark were held at Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE). 23 banks participated in the trades. The trades were opened with the US dollar at 132.16 tenge per unit of the currency. After two-three deals at about opening price dollar began to fall quickly under a pressure of increasing supply. Sellers made an attempt to stop the fall of dollar exchange rate at 132.10, and they succeeded someway, but not for long. Demand was moderate. Dollar exchange rate went down to 132.06 tenge per unit of the currency because buyers got more active. Only after this point American currency began to gain against tenge, and the rest of the trades its rate constantly rose. The session was closed at 132.17 (demand) / 132.19 (supply). 289 deals were made with US dollars. The weighted average dollar exchange rate has made 132.12 tenge per unit of the currency, and compared to the results of the previous session went down by 0.14 tenge (14 points). The trade volume of the session - $25.300 mln - has increased relative to that of the latest trades by $14.355 mln. The exchange rate fluctuation during the trade was 0.10%. One hour after closing of the trades at over-the-counter market of Kazakhstan dollar was quoted at 132.20 (demand) / 132.25 (supply) tenge per unit of the currency. Two hours later - 132.19 / 132.25. In general, by the results of the trades the market seems to be in equilibrium. Large volumes of supply of dollars at the beginning of the session that brought the dollar exchange rate down was balanced by a high demand in the second half of the session. As a result, closing rate exceeded the first deal price just a bit. It seems as if major banks which were buying US dollars yesterday decided to fix their profits, and then began to open long positions again. It is worth to say most of the banks of the second tier did not trade with dollars in large volumes, though total turnover of the session was big. The market was orchestrated by a few major participants who made most of the deals. Analysts at IRBIS say influence of mandatory sale of exporters' currency earnings was not profound today. Dealers were mainly trying to achieve speculative goals. Speculative component on today's trades made USD6 mln or 23.9%. This is a very high indicator. Also, significant amounts of dollars were sold by those participants who did not have high volumes of export earnings before. Trade results show traders did not attempt to strengthen tenge unanimously. 2 deals were made on Deutsche marks. The weighted average rate has made 71.53 tenge for 1 mark. Compared to the results of the previous trades it went up by 0.45 tenge (45 points). Trade volume - DEM20 thousand. At closing of the session Deutsche mark was asked for 71.55 tenge per unit of the currency. No supply existed. No deals were made on Euro. At closing of the trades Euro was offered at 139.15 tenge per unit of the currency. No demand existed.