Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for November 15, 2011

/IRBIS, November 15, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for November 15, 2011. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" now expect negative opening of trades on negative external background. Further, during the day, according to analysts, the dynamics will be changeable, but the KASE index will, probably, end the day with decrease. Analysts of BCC Invest JCS note the following events on the markets today: - November 16, 2011 in the trade system of KASE specialized trades on placement of long-term treasury bills of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan MEUKAM-168 of release 2 on the following terms (Almaty time) were held: Paper Type: MEUKAM-168 National identification number: KZKDKY140025 Order number: 2 / 168 Trading code KASE: MUM168_0002 Face value, KZT: 1 000.00 Payment date: 11/16/11 Date of circulation start: 11/16/11 Last Day: 15.11.25 Maturity date: 16/11/25 Circulation period: 14 years (5040 days) Coupon frequency: 1x a year Coupon payment date: 16 November each year Time base: 30 / 360 Declared level of accommodation, m.: 17 000.0 Trade subject: coupon According to forecasts of JSC "BCC Invest", the coupon rate at the auction was formed in the range 5.00% - 5.50%, with the most probable value of 5.25%. - KazMunayGas ExplorationProduction JCS (KMG EP or the "Company") has published consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended September 30, 2011. Net profit amounted to 165 billion tenge (1,126 million U.S. dollars) and earnings per one share - 2,280 tenge (U.S. $ 2.6 per GDR), an increase of 5% and 6%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2010 on the performance of the Company in the first nine months of 2011 have affected production and exports fall as a result of illegal protests in the production branch "Ozenmunaygaz" (OMG), which took place in May- August 2011, an increase of taxes and impose fines and penalties in the second quarter of 2011 average price of Brent crude oil in the first nine months of 2011 was 46% higher than in the corresponding period last year, up from $ 77 U.S. per barrel to 112 U.S. dollars per barrel. According to the JSC "BCC Invest", published financial statements are neutral to stock quotes and bonds of KazMunaiGas ExplorationProduction as well as operating results for the company have been published previously and financial results are in line with our expectations and the expectations of most market participants. However, the negative factor is that the declines at Ozenmunaygaz mostly affected its exports, which significantly changed the balance of exports and domestic sales in the revenue structure and a negative impact on revenues and profits. Taking into account the current quotes and price targets of JSC "BCC Invest" - 15,900 tenge per common share and $ 18.30 per GDR, analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" lowered their recommendations on equity securities of KMGEP from "Buy" to "Hold". Analysts of BCC Invest JCS expect the following developments on international markets today: - In the next two days Russia is expected to publish data on producer prices in October and on balance the budget in October. - in France at 12:30 (AST) will be published GDP data for Q3 2011, 13:45 (AST) - on wages and jobs outside of agricultural sector. In Germany at 13:00 (AST) will be published GDP data for Q3 2011, at 16:00 (AST) ZEW will publish the index of the current situation and the mood in the business environment. In the UK, at 15:30 (AST) will be published CPI, CPI and PPI for October. At 16:00 (AST) will be published on Eurozone GDP data for Q3 2011, the sentiment index in the business environment of the ZEW for November and trade balance in September. - In the United States at 19:30 (AST) will be published producer price index for October, retail sales in October and the manufacturing index Empire Manufacturing for November. At 21:00 (AST) to be published data on the inventory in September. - Today Wal-Mart Stores Inc, Home Depot Inc, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc, Dell Inc, Covidien PLC, TJX Cos Inc, and others will be reporting. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: ------------------------------------------------------------- Closing Target Potential, Issuer Code price price % Recommen- dation ----------------- ------- ------- ------ ---------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 240 320 +33.33 Neutral KKGBp 156.20 157 +0.51 Neutral Halyk Bank HSBK 218 296 +35.78 Buy Bank CenterCredit CCBN 294.99 Review Tsesnabank TSBN 800 1,030 +28.75 Neutral KazMunaiGaz EP RDGZ 15,300 15,900 +3.92 Hold Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 2,221 2,440 +9.86 Hold ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 1,625 1,900 +16.92 Buy Kazakhtelekom KZTK 17,800 27,500 +54.49 Buy KZTKp 12,000 8,900 -25.83 Buy MREK MREK 1,350 1,130 -16.30 Hold ------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. IRBIS Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-11-15]