The Review of key events and forecasts from "ASYL INVEST" JCS (Kazakhstan) analysts for August 9, 2011

/IRBIS, August 9, 2011/ - "ASYL INVEST" JCS (Almaty) has provided IRBIS with the review of key events and its investment ideas and forecasts for August 9, 2011 The news background for the Kazakhstan stock market today remains extremely negative. Yesterday's drop in the main U.S. indices and the Asian markets today creates unfavorable prospects for the domestic market shares. Shares of steel companies in Kazakhstan, Kazakhmys and ENRC are under pressure because we are seeing today a significant reduction of price quotations for copper traded in Shanghai and New York. KMG EP can now update the lows. Oil prices are now falling by more than 3%, already reaching a level of $ 100 per barrel. Shares of the banking sector against a background of problems in the Eurozone and the U.S. economy and have no prospects of growth. However, investors should separate the bad shares from the good ones. According to analysts of the "ASYL INVEST", investors should first get rid of the stocks of fundamentally weak issuers, which include Kazkommertsbank with high debt load and the Bank CenterCredit with low levels of capitalization. Shares of National Bank are in last resort for sale, as high liquidity, profitability, and low dependence on external loans makes banks less susceptible to external shocks. Fundamentally strong stocks of Kazakhtelecom are still the most stable stocks in a recession. Besides, ASYL INVEST analysts note the following events on world markets: - News of the decrease in credit rating yesterday caused a massive sell-off in the U.S. market. Shares of major U.S. banks Bank of America have collapsed by 20% and Ford Motor Company and Caterpillar lost at least 8.3% of market value. Falling oil prices led to a 7% condom collapse quotes Chevron. Last Friday, the statistics for the United States gave some cause for optimism, but the S & P action did not allow reversing the trend in the markets. According to Department of U.S. employment, the number of new jobs in non-farm sectors of the economy amounted to 117 thousand well above market expectations of 85 thousand in private sector employment increased by 154 thousand to 41 thousand that higher expectations of economists. Unemployment unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percentage points to 9.1%. Last week, the statistics reflect a significant U.S. economic slowdown. The index of business activity in the services sector in July ISM Manufacturing fell to 52.7 points from 53.5 points the previous month. The market was expecting a moderate growth rate to 53.5 points. Industrial orders in June fell by 0.8%, which was within expectations of economists, however, the growth rate in May was revised to decrease to 0.6% from 0.8% at initial assessment. Economic fears of investors on Thursday endorsed the U.S. statistics on initial applications for unemployment benefits. Last week, the number of applications dropped to 400 thousand, which means that little progress in the labor market. Little support for markets was the U.S. data on employment from the agency ADP, which showed job growth in the private sector of the U.S. economy by 114 thousand, slightly above market expectations (1,000 thousand). In July and early August, the market disappointed the weak U.S. data on GDP, in the second quarter of 2011, growth of the economy was only 1.3%. Orders of durable goods fell 2.1% in June, and the ISM Manufacturing Index showed a significant reduction in business activity in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. According to figures for August 1, the index fell by 50.9 points in July, the very lowest level since August last year. - The Asian market is now falling behind American markets. Nikkei index falls by 4.4% while the Hang-Seng and Shanghai Composite - 6.6 and 1.0%. Futures for U.S. indices fell today by 2.2%, reflecting the high probability of further decline in the index today. - The market for oil and industrial metals yesterday was shocked by the prospects of deteriorating economic trends in the U.S. and the world after America has lost the highest rating from the agency S & P. Copper for delivery in three months lost 2.85% of value, aluminum fell by 0.8%, nickel and lead- more than 5.5%. Gold yesterday showed significant growth, adding up to the day 3.35%. Price reached a new record high closing at $ 719.5 an ounce. Commodity markets today again under pressure after a panic in the U.S. spread to the Asian market, where investors have continued to dispose of risky assets. Prices for Brent crude fell today by 3.0%, reaching already the mark of $ 100 per barrel, WTI went below $ 80 a barrel and lost with yesterday's closing levels 4.6%. Copper futures for delivery in three months fell in price by 4.6% in Shanghai, while in New York in electronic trading, 1.5%. Gold continued to rise today, after the downgrade of the U.S. ratings, "yellow metal" is the only "safe haven". In morning trading in Asia, the price of gold added 2.7%, easily breaking the mark of $1,750 per ounce. The present material is exclusively informative and isn't an offer or recommendation to conclude any deals with stock. "IRBIS" Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions, given in the present material. [2011-08-09]