Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for July 27, 2011

/IRBIS. July 27, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for July 27, 2011. The analysts expect negative opening of trades on KASE amid negative external background. During the day, according to the forecasts, the dynamics of stocks included into KASE index, will remain mixed and multidimensional, and KASE index will end the day with moderate decrease Analysts of "BCC Invest" JCS expect the following developments on Kazakhstani market today: - Total assets of commercial banks in Kazakhstan as of July 1, 2011 amounted to 12 trillion 739.7 billion tenge (current 145.90 / $ 1), an increase of 2.8% in June, said the Committee on Financial Supervision of the National Bank. The share of assets denominated in foreign currencies at the reporting date amounted to 33.1% of total assets, or 4 trillion 215.5 billion KZT. The share of liquid assets to total assets of banks amounted to 21.2% July 1 (June 1, 21.5%). The aggregate estimated net worth of the banking sector on July 1, 2011 amounted to 1 trillion 948 billion tenge, an increase of 2.2% in June. The aggregate amount of income commercial banks to July 1, 2011 amounted to 1 trillion 632.7 billion KZT, amount of spending - 1 trillion 613.3 billion tenge (excluding income tax, which formed at the reporting date KZT 9.1 billion). As a result, banks' net profit for January- June 2011 amounted to 10.2 billion tenge. Banks' loan portfolio (including interbank loans) as of July 1 this year amounted to 9 trillion 354.3 billion tenge, an increase of 1.3% in June. At the same loans to non-residents of Kazakhstan amounted to one trillion 276.8 billion tenge or 13.6% of the loan portfolio (on January 1, 2011 this figure stood at 14.8%). As of July 1, 2011 loans granted in foreign currency amounted to 46.5% of the total loan portfolio, or 4 trillion 354.1 billion KZT. The structure of banks' loan portfolio as of July 1, 2011 the share of standard loans was 25.7%, suspicious - 53.7%, bad - 20.6%. A month ago, these figures were 25.3%, 54.3% and 20.4% respectively. The amount of bank loans, doubtful loans related to Category 5 and hopeless, at the reporting date amounted to 3 trillion 111.9 billion tenge, or 33.3% of the total loan portfolio (32.9% last month). Arrears of bank customers over 90 days on payments for loans at 01 June of this year totaled 2 trillion 418.7 billion tenge, or 26.2% of the loan portfolio (26.5% last month). The volume of bank provisioning for loans on the balance sheet date amounted to 2 trillion 457.1 billion tenge or 26.3% of the loan portfolio (31%). As of July 01, total liabilities of the banking sector amounted to 11 trillion 302.3 billion tenge, an increase of 2.8% in June. Of these liabilities to non-residents of Kazakhstan amounted to 2 trillion 536.2 billion tenge, down in June by 2.7%. The share of liabilities to nonresidents of the country as of July 1 this year amounted to 22.4% of total liabilities (at the beginning, the figure stood at 23.9%). Liabilities denominated in foreign currency amounted to 40.5% of the total liabilities of commercial banks, or 4 trillion 582.9 billion KZT. Total deposits from individuals and legal entities (excluding banks and special purpose subsidiaries) as of July 1, 2011 amounted to 7 trillion 411.9 billion tenge, an increase of 4.4% in June. The amount of deposits of legal entities (excluding subsidiaries of deposits for special purposes) was 4 trillion 930.7 billion tenge (up 4.4%). The amount of individual deposits (excluding deposits of subsidiaries of special purpose) was 2 trillion 481.2 billion tenge (up 4.5%). Deposits of subsidiaries special 1.7 billion tenge (down 93.2%). As of July 1, 2011 the republic's banking sector was presented to 39 second-tier banks. Kazakhstan's population exceeds 16.5 million people. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" expect the following developments on international markets today: - Russia is expected to publish the consumer price index. - in Germany 12:00 (AST) to be published data on the price index for imports, and the day will be published data on the consumer price index. In the UK, at 16:00 (AST) CBI will publish data on Trends Total Orders, Trend Selling Prices and Business Optimism. In France, at 22:00 (AST) to be published data on the unemployment rate. - U.S. at 17:00 (AST) to be published data on applications for mortgages from an MBA, at 18:40 (AST) - on orders for durable goods. Today at midnight, at 00:00 (AST) will be released "Beige Book" - an economic survey from the Fed. - Today will be reporting FANUC Corp, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, ConocoPhillips, Banco Bradesco SA, Banco Santander SA, Visa Inc, British American Tobacco PLC, Daimler AG, Boeing Co, Dow Chemical Co, Goldcorp Inc, ArcelorMittal, Exelon Corp, Corning Inc, WellPoint Inc, Hess Corp, and others. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: ------------------------------------------------------------- Closing Target Potential, Issuer Code price price % Recommen- dation ----------------- ------- ------- ------ ---------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 380 545 +43.42 Hold KKGBp 167 168 +0.60 Neutral Halyk Bank HSBK 314 415 +32.17 Hold Bank CenterCredit CCBN 495 608 +22.83 Buy Tsesnabank TSBN 942.85 1,030 +9.24 Neutral KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 17,550 20,500 +16.81 Buy Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,150 3,500 +11.11 Hold ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 1,875 2,200 +17.33 Buy Kazakhtelekom KZTK 19,700 Review KZTKp 9,210 9,300 +0.98 Hold MREK MREK 3,000 1,130 -62.33 Hold ------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-07-27]