Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for July 1, 2011

/IRBIS, July 1, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for July 1, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - Today, the situation on foreign markets, which determine the mood on KASE, remains ambiguous. Negative for China and Japan dampened the optimism of investors. Today, reducing the price of the shares of mining companies after significant growth in recent days is possible. - Asian indices move up today, after U.S. and European markets on optimism about Greece. The Japanese Nikkei rising by 0.6%, Shanghai and Hang Seng added 0.4% today and 1.5% respectively. Today, however, is not without negatives. As shown by official data on China's index of business activity PMI Manufacturing, growth in manufacturing slowed. The index fell in June to 50.9 points from 52 points in May. Evidence suggests that the measures the country's regulators to combat inflation have a negative impact on the economy. The Japanese index of confidence among the major industrial countries has also disappointed economists, most dramatically, falling from 2009. - In early Friday trading in Asia, there is little reduction in the euro / dollar, which is located below the 1.45. Investors, apparently, still can not decide which direction to go further, considering the growth of the euro to the current levels sufficient. Positive on Greece and the expectations of growth rates of the ECB are more to win. Yesterday also it became known that after the French banks, German financial institutions have also agreed on a voluntary prolongation of expiring in the next three years of Greek bonds worth 2 billion euros, with total investments of about EUR 10 billion. Now, market participants would expect the EU decision and the IMF formally grant Greece the fifth tranche of 12 billion euros, which should be taken on July 3. Today, the influence on the sale will provide statistics. In the U.S., is expected to improve consumer confidence, but at the same time and lowering production index ISM. Eurozone PMI and unemployment data will see the light today. - The situation on the commodity markets today is talking about self-restraint of "bulls" after rallying since the beginning of the week and release of negative data on China's index of business activity in the industry. Stopping of the growth of the euro also doesn't play in favor of the optimists. Copper futures in Shanghai, added only 0.4%, while in New York in electronic trading were down 0.7%. Oil prices are now adjusted, investors are fixing profits on futures after a substantial rise in recent days. In U.S. WTI crude oil drops in price by 0.8%, European Brent loses 0.2% from yesterday's closing level. Gold is now trying to hold on a significant point of $1,500 per ounce. Temporary optimism for Greece was putting pressure on precious metals, but the stabilization of the euro rate at around 1.45 gives hope to increase the value of "yellow metal", usually growing in times of crisis. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 5.5 6.2 Hold +12.7 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 400.0 452.0 Hold +13.0 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 188.0 226.0 Buy +20.2 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.0 13.6 Buy +52.0 HALYK BANK KASE 321.0 474.0 Buy +47.7 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 487.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 19.9 22.7 Hold +14 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 17,800.0 20,062.0 Hold +13 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.00 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,380.0 1,427.0 Hold +3 ENRC LSE 781.5 1,216.0 Buy +56 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 3.4 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 2.7 3.3 Buy +24 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,550.0 33,825.0 Buy +73 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 39.8 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-07-01]