Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for April 27, 2011

/IRBIS. April 27, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for April 27, 2011. "BCC Invest" JCS analysts are expecting the positive trade opening today on KASE in the background of the previous day rise of stock quotation and depository receipts quotation in London. During the day the KASE stock quotation dynamics would probably depend on the mood of the western floors investors. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" expect the following developments in international markets today: - The growth of the Kazakhstani GDP made 6.5% in the first quarter - the Ministry of economic development. The GDP in January-March, 2011 went up 6.5% in comparison with analogical last-year period. "On the preliminary data, the GDP increase made 6.5% in the first quarter of 2011", - the Minister of economical development and trade Kayrat Kelimbetov said on Tuesday selectory government meeting. As stated, the GDP has grown 7% in 2010, comparing to 2009, and made KZT21 trln 513.5 bln (current 145.38/$1). The growth is expected to be 5% in 2011. - The Ministry of Economic Development bettered the GDP growth prognosis for 2011. "Taking into account the positive conjuncture on the world trade markets and the economic results for the first quarter, the ministry believes the 7% economic growth to be possible this year", - Kayrat Kelimbetov said on the Tuesday selectory meeting. On preliminary prognosis, he mentioned, the goods produce may increase 5.3%, the service produce - 8.2%. As for the Prime Minister Karim Massimov, he entrusted to prepare the accordable account by the end of the week. The GDP had been expected to grow 5% in 2011. - The government debt of Kazakhstan made KZT 2 trillion 298.1 billion tenge. - The Ministry of Finance. The government debt made KZT2,298.1 billion at the end of the first quarter, - The Minister of Finance Bolat Zhamishev said. "After the first quarter the amount of government debt stays in safe range. By April 1, id made 2,298.1 billion or 71.8% of the limit", - Zhamishev said at the government selectory meeting. The limit is set up on KZT3,200 billion (current 145.38/$1). The sum is stated in the "On the republican budget for 2011-2013" law. So, the limit is set as 15% of the expected GDP. The limit of the state guarantee leaning for 2011 is set up on KZT65 billion. The budget also provides KZT1,747,853.0 billion for the covering and service of the state guarantee debt. - The Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan has placed 15.0 million MEUKAM-144 (third release) (KZKDKY120035) for 5.30% of annual interest rate on KASE on April 26. On April 26, the KASE trade system held special trade on the state long-term treasury obligations MEUKAM-144 (third release) with life of 12 years (4,320 days) and periodicity of 1 time a year, of the Ministry of Finance placement. Among the total amount of the active bids, the pensionary market subjects were 34.8%, Kazakhstani second-tier banks (STB) - 14.7%, STB clients - 37.2%, broker-dealer companies - 4.5%, their clients - 8.7%. According to the information of "Central Stock Depositary" JCS (Almaty), all the dealings on MEUKAM-144 (third release) had been fulfilled by the end of the trade results account. 8.4% of the total of obligations had been bought by the pensionary subjects, 6.7% - STB, 68.5 - STB clients, 4.7% - broker-dealer companies, 11.7% - their clients. The MEUKAM-144 (third release) are automatically allowed to the circulation on KASE secondary market nder the code name MUM144_0003. The obligations should be quoted in net prices in the KASE trading system. - The Halyk bank would send 15.2% of the net profit to the dividend payment on prefs. The banks intends to send 15.2% of the net profit to the dividend payment on privileged shares and convertible privileged shares, is stated in the message on the totals of the investors annual meeting, which was held on April, 21. According to the information, KZT5,292.4 billion (current 145.38/$1) would be sent for dividend payment. Dividends on common stocks would not be paid or calculated. The amount of declared privileged shares is 680,225,222, of placed privileged shares - 390,84,052 by April, 1. As noted, the net profit of the bank made KZT36.2 billion in 2010, which is 2.3 times bigger than 2009. The assets has grown 3.7% up to KZT2,098 trillion. Bank's majoritarian investor is "Almex" holding group (44.51% of stocks), "Samruk Kazyna" state fund has 11.55%, the APF of Halyk Bank - 9.59%. In December, 2006 the pank has berformed IPO on the London Stock Exchange, placing GDR for $748 million (including the option). "BCC Invest" JCS analysts think that this news is neutral for common stock quotations of Halyk Bank and keep the "HOLD" recommendation with the target price of KZT415 per stock. - The Russian government has changes the nickel export taxes account method, binding it to LME prices. The relevant directive has been signed by the Prime Minister of Russia V. Putin on April, 25. The progressive duty scale would increase the exporters' expenditures in case of the increase of the world prices. Now, 10% rate is performed at the nickel export, it was implemented on December 19 (5% before). According to the Ministry of Finance calculation, the increase of the rate was to bring RUB6.5 billion into the budget of the RF. New rates are calculated with the formula, depending on LME last quarter average price. The cutoff price is set on $12,000/ton. If average price was below $12,000/ton, the duty rate is zero. If average price was between $12,000 and $15,000, then the rate is calculated like: 0.05 x Average LME price per quarter. With such price, the exporters would pay the duty not bigger than $750 per ton. If average price is between $15000 and $20,000, the duty is $750 + 0.15 x (average LME price - 15,000). In this case the duty will make less than $1.500 per ton. If the price is higher than $20,000, the rate is: $1,500 + 0.3 x (average price - 20,000). In this case the duty rate will exceed $1,500 per ton. For the first quarter of 2011 LME average price didn't reduce more than $24,000. So, if the new method would have been implemented from January 1, 2011, the exporters would pay the duty on sum of minimum $2,700 per ton. "Nornickel" called the decision on the new rates "expectable". The company has taken part in the formulas development and had the opportunity to represent its point of view and the needed data, the press service declared. The government's decision means the rise of duty rates from 10% to 13% for Nornickel (PTC: GMKN), it's not significant for the company, "Uralsib" (PTC: USBN) analysts mark. The fiscal pressure would rise $150-200 per ton, or 2% of the 2011 EBITDA ("Uralsib"s forecast - $8 billion). Judging of the first quarter nickel average price, making $26,905 per ton, the export duty rates may be $3,572 per ton. "BCC Invest" analysts don't expect the news to negatively affect the stock and GDR quotations of Nornickel. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" also expect the following developments in international markets today: - Consumption price index is to be published today in Russia. - Today at 12:00 (AST) the consumer trust index from GfK and the data on the consumption price index, including the regional data, would be published in Germany. At 14.30 (AST) in Great Britain the data on GDP, service market activity index, hypothecary credits bulk from BBA would be published in Germany. Euro zone's data on new industrial orders will see the light at 15:00(AST). In France, the consumer trust index will be published at 12:45(AST), and the unemployment level index - at 22.00. - Today the MBA data on the hypothecary bids (17:00 AST) and on durable goods orders (18:30 AST) will be published in USA. The FOMC decision on the rates (22:30 AST) and B.Bernanke's speech on FRS press conference (00:15) are also expected. Today the following companies will provede the reports: ConocoPhillips, ENI SpA, GlaxoSmithKline PLC, Boeing Co, Volkswagen AG, Baidu Inc, eBay Inc, Barclays PLC, Komatsu Ltd, FANUC CORP, Barrick Gold Corp and the others. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: ----------------------------------------------------------------- Last price Target Potential, Issuer Code price % Recommenda tion ----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------- ---------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 510 583 +14,31 Neutral KKGBp 225 196 -12,89 Neutral Halyk Bank HSBK 370 415 +12,16 Hold Bank CenterCredit CCBN 515 646 +25,44 Hold Tsesnabank TSBN 865 1 030 +19,08 Neutral KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 19 550 20 500 +4,86 Hold Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3 300 3 870 +17,27 Buy ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2 195 2 550 +16,17 Hold Kazakhtelekom KZTK 19 750 Review KZTKp 9 600 9 300 -3,13 Hold MREK MREK 1 100 1 130 +2,73 Hold ----------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-04-27]