Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for March 3, 2011

/IRBIS, March 3, 2011/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for March 3, 2011. Analysts of IFH RESMI give attention to the following to the important events in the markets: - Today, March 2, 2011, KASE index showed a decline of 1.73% and entrenched at 1,809.03 points. Also, the volume of transactions declined from the previous trading day on 33.6%, which amounted to 18.9 million KZT (in dollar terms was $129.9 million). Shares representative list of KASE: KKB, Kazakhmys Plc, the National Bank, Bank CenterCredit showed a decrease of 5.6%, 4.3%, 1.8% and 0.6% respectively. Common shares of KMG, ENRC and KazakhTelecom remained unchanged. KASE index since the beginning of the year showed an increase of 5.3%, but over the past 30 days decreased by 2.5%. - European shares 2 March 2011 resulted in declining the major indices on the background of unrest in West Africa and the Middle East, which negatively affected the global economy, supply and prices of oil. In reversing the corridor were the shares of one of the leading banks. So, the British Barclays and German Deutsche Bank have shown an increase of 0.37% and 0.29% respectively. In turn, the French Societe Generale and the UK Royal Bank of Scotland fell by 1.33% and 0.23%. Oil and gas companies have closed in the minus, for example such as the British-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell fell by 0.56%, Italian Eni SpA At 0.17%, and French Total SA to 0.24%. Also, mining companies have shown decline. Shares of British-Chilean Antofagasta at 2.33%, Anglo- Australian Rio Tinto on 2.45% and the British Anglo American fell 1.41%. 2 March 2011. British index FITSE 100 closed lower at 20.87 points or -0.35% on the previous day. Meanwhile, the U.S. market on March 2 2011 closed in the plus mark, the index Dow Jones Industrial average blue chips rose 0.07% and Nasdaq Composite by 0.39% which was 2,748.07 points. - Fed Chairman Bernanke, the U.S. does not rule out the third phase of financial incentives (quantitative easing) the U.S. economy. Ben Bernanke stated the need to continue and expand the purchase of U.S. government bonds by the U.S. Federal Reserve. At this time, the Fed continues to the second phase of financial incentive, under which refers to the buying of government bonds in the amount of 600 billion USD, and which should be completed by June. Bernanke's latest speech sets the stage for the third phase of financial incentive, under which, probably, it will already be going on volumes exceeding 600 billion USD. Bernanke last year's performance driven by the recovery of global financial markets, so for example, at the auctions in Tokyo the dollar rose against the 12 currencies, the ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell in price by 5 points, to 2.95%. In addition, the increased stock indexes. Against this background, the last performances can be expected to further strengthen the dollar, and possibly, lower interest rates on long-term U.S. government bonds. One of the main reasons for such action Bernanke has called the struggle against unemployment, the value of which reached 9.8% at the end of 2010, but which, however, decreased to 9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics for January 2011. The latest news has already positively affected the markets in Asia. - Commodity markets showed fragmented dynamics. At the end of trading on U.S. exchanges precious metals, gold, silver, platinum and palladium, struck new highs. The greatest growth has shown platinum (+1.29%). With the positive trend of non-ferrous metals went down. Due to the severe situation in Libya and the recent publication of the EIA on the decline of oil reserves the United States by 3.5 million barrels of oil, energy prices continue to rise. The spot price of WTI crude oil remains at $ 102.2 per barrel, while the price of Brent futures reached a new high of $ 116.3 per barrel (+ $ 0.90). In addition to rising prices for hydrocarbons, inflationary pressure on the dollar had a third round of quantitative easing, announced today the head of the Federal Reserve Mr. Ben Bernanke. The dollar continues to depreciate relative to gold (+1.06%) and a number of oil currencies and the ruble as the tenge. Markets for agricultural commodities have corrected, but, despite a 3-month growth remain positive. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI. Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 583 On Review 490 52.13 Halyk bank 380 519 36.6% 456 42.52 Bank Center Credit 626 On Review 921 35.17 RD KMG 20,250 On Review 23,873 63.00 Kazkhtelekom 19,500 On Review 26,057 47.08 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought/oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100%/0%. - Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1.230 m.; - Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. - The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24.895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-03-03]