Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for February 11, 2011

/IRBIS, February 11, 2011/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for February 11, 2011. Analysts of IFH RESMI give attention to the following to the important events in the markets: - Kazakhstan Stock Exchange on February 10 was closed in the red line, with the fall of KASE index to the level of 1890.53 on 25.04 points lower than the previous auction. The only securities, which showed a positive change in the price action was CenterCredit Bank, which rose marginally by 0.1%. The rest of the banking sector fell: Halyk by 0.7% to 0.3% Kazkommertsbank. The biggest negative swing in share price has undergone ENRC Plc, dropping to 5.4% and Kazakhmys Plc paper at -1.3%. Action Kazakhtelecom as become cheaper by 1.2%. - The stock trades in Europe on February 10 ended with multidirectional movement of the leading index. Drop in major stock indexes have contributed to negative corporate news, mostly representatives from the financial sector. Thus, inter alia, income at Credit Suisse in 2010, declined by a quarter. Shares of Deutsche Bank fell 1.75%, the French Societe Generale - on 1.71%, the British Barclays - 1%. At the same time, the news that Egyptian President Mr. Hosni Mubarak, might resign, has contributed to higher oil prices, which in turn led to the growth of quotations of the companies, the oil and gas sector. In the "red zone" of trading results were papers from leading European banks. In the "plus" completed trades oil and gas companies. Shares of the Italian Eni S.p.A. increased by 0.83%, French TOTAL - at 1.10%. Thus, the trade results on Feb. 10 British FITSE 100 index fell 32.28 points (-0.53%) - to 6020.01 points, the German DAX index rose 19.38 points (0.26%) - up 7,340.28 points. Trades in the U.S. on Thursday and ended in opposite changes of indexes against corporate news and the statements by Egyptian President Mr. Hosni Mubarak. Thus, at the end of the trading index of "blue chips" Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.09% to 12,229 points. The S & P 500 was closed by growth of 0.08% at 1,322 points. "High tech" Nasdaq Composite closed higher by 0.05% to 2,790 points. - Kraft Foods Inc (KFT.N), the second largest food producer in the world after Nestle (NESN.VX), has lowered its forecasts with respect to revenue due to increased raw material prices. Prices of shares resonated to the news and fell to the level of $ 30.45 per share, which is 2.1% lower. According to corporate earnings, excluding costs related to the acquisition of Cadbury Plc, will rise from 11% to 13%. This is less than previous statements about the growth of 15% - 17%. CEO Irene Rosenfeld mentioned that the result of these corrections predictions were rising commodity prices and weakening demand for products in many markets. Key players in the segment of the food industry such as Kraft, Sara Lee Corp. (SLE.N) and General Mills Inc. (GIS.N) have raised their prices to cope with the rebounded prices on wheat, corn and sugar. It is expected that production costs will not be significantly adjusted in the short term, which in turn will narrow the margin of profitability. Nevertheless, the information contained in the records of the company in the last financial report, the Corporation has shown growth in net profit for the Operations in 2010 to 36.7% and amounted to 4.1 billion U.S. dollars. Revenue raised corporations by 27% and amounted to 49.2 billion dollars, and gross profit also showed a high result, an increase of 28.5% to $ 17.9 billion quarterly results showed a decrease in net profit by 23.1% compared to with the same period the previous year and amounted to 547 million dollars. But the company's revenue rose by 30%. Gross profit in the 4 th quarter of last year increased by 21.6%. - Precious metals trading on Feb. 10 dropped in price. Thus, palladium fell by 1.92%, platinum at 1.53%. Silver and gold have dropped in price by 1.09% and 0.35% respectively. Trades non-ferrous metals in much the same continued negative trend, where only certain types of aluminum showed positive vibrations. Thus, an alloy of aluminum and form NASSAC rose in price by 1.51% and 1.01% respectively. Continued to fall by 2.7% lead, and zinc at 2.12%, copper at 1.25%. Over the past 5 trading days, lead has fallen to 5.17%. Oil keeps the already achieved levels, exposing small price fluctuations. So, Brent fell by 0.22%, WTI Cushing rose slightly to 0.02% and URALS fell by 0.56%. The price for agro markets were closed in the versatile manner. Cotton continues to grow to the last trading session at 3.88%. Growth rates over the last week were already 13.55%. Wheat on the contrary, showed a negative trend in the 2.62%. Nevertheless, wheat for the last year has risen in price by almost 75%. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI. Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 598 On Review 397 79.16 Halyk bank 417 519 24.5% 470 61.53 Bank Center Credit 659 On Review 1,007 63.59 RD KMG 19,330 On Review 23,638 59.56 Kazkhtelekom 20,151 On Review 24,587 70.41 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought/oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100%/0%. - Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1.230 m.; - Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. - The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24.895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-02-11]