Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for January 26, 2011
26.01.11 19:27
/IRBIS. January 26, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a
survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for January
26, 2011.
Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" now expect a negative opening of
trading on the background of a decrease in stocks and depositary
receipts of Kazakhstan issuers yesterday in London. Further, during
the day at the KASE trading dynamics would be volatile, and probably
all or part of the losses by the end of the day will play.
JSC "BCC Invest" also notes the following important events in the
Kazakh market:
- January 25, 2011 in the trade system of KASE specialized trades on
placement of government treasury bonds of the Ministry of Finance of
the Republic of Kazakhstan MEUKAM-156 Release 3 with a maturity of
13 years and Coupon frequency 1 time per year. Placement volume
amounted to 2,833,333 bonds worth 2.83 billion (20.2% of the plan), the
coupon rate - 5.15% per annum. The volume of active orders, the
proportion of pension market had 27.9%, the share of Kazakhstan's
second-tier banks (STB) - 26.3%, clients of STB - 24.6%, broker-
dealers - 3.9%, their customers - 17.3%. According to data of Central
Securities Depository, all transactions on placement MEUKAM-156 third
edition by the end of calculations based on trades executed. 8.5% of the
total outstanding bonds were redeemed by the subjects of the pension
market, 25.9% - BWI, 29.4% - STB clients, 8.8% - broker-dealer
companies, 27.3% - by customers of broker-dealers.
- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts
GDP growth in Kazakhstan in 2011 to 5%. "(...) Given the fact that oil
production will fail in the same way as to ensure economic growth in
2011 is expected to slow GDP growth to 5 percent "- the report said the
Bank issued on Tuesday. "Nevertheless, the medium-term growth
prospects remain good, particularly in the area in 2015, when oil
production is expected to start at the large Kashagan field. There is also
potential to expand production of uranium, copper and corn," - stated in
the report. According to experts the Bank, despite the fact that the
National Bank of Kazakhstan announced the introduction of a March
2011 managed floating exchange rate, which may lead to increased
exchange rate fluctuations, it will keep the rate of inflation in the range of
6-8%. According to preliminary data, Kazakhstan's GDP in 2010 grew by
7%. The IMF forecasts that GDP growth in Kazakhstan up to 2011 is 5%.
The government of Kazakhstan expects GDP growth of the republic in
2011 at 4-5%
Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" and expect the following developments
in international markets today:
- Russia is expected to publish data on the consumer price index.
- in Germany 13:00 (AST) will be published data on the prices of
imports. At 15:30 (AST) in the UK will be published data on the volume
of mortgage loans from the BBA, and will publish the proceedings of
the Bank of England. At 23:00 (AST) in France will be published data
on the net change of job seekers and the total number of unemployed.
- U.S. at 18:00 (AST) will be published data on applications for
mortgages from the MBA. At 21:00 (AST) will be published sales data
on the primary housing market.
- Today reports Yahoo! Inc, SAP AG, United Technologies Corp,
ConocoPhillips and others.
Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" give the following advice for investors in
securities of issuers in the domestic Kazakh market::
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Issuer Last price Target Predicted price.
code price % Recom-
mendation
----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------------- ---------
Kazkommertsbank KKGB 465 479 +3.01 Neutral
KKGBp 210 335 +59.52 Buy
Halyk Bank HSBK 390 386 -1.03 Buy
Bank CenterCredit CCBN 660 646 -2.12 Hold
Tsesnabank TSBN 865 1,030 +19.08 Neutral
KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 19,200 22,300 +16.15 Buy
Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,550 3,977 +12.03 Hold
ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,400 2,298 -4.25 Neutral
Kazakhtelekom KZTK 19,700 19,200 -2.54 Hold
KZTKp 9,300 9,300 0 Hold
MREK MREK 1,100 1,130 +2.73 Hold
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The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer
or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't
take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2011-01-26]