Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for January 20, 2011

/IRBIS. January 20, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for January 20, 2011. Analysts OF JSC "BCC Invest" now expect a negative opening of trading on the background of escalating correctional market sentiment. Further, during the day sales are likely to worsen, and the index of KASE, probably finished the day in negative territory. JSC "BCC Invest" also notes the following important events in the Kazakh market: - Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan placed on the KASE 19 January 45.0 million MEKKAM-12 releases 112 on the amount of 4.4 billion KZT at 1.72% per annum. January 19, 2011 in the trade system of KASE specialized trades on placement of short-term treasury bills of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan MEKKAM-12 production 112. Placement volume totaled 45.0 million bonds in the amount of 4,424 million KZT, the average yield to maturity - 1.7170% per annum, the weighted average price - 98.3120% of the nominal discount bonds. The volume of active orders, the proportion of pension market had 14.2%, the share of Kazakhstan's second-tier banks (STB) - 58.0%, clients of STB - 18.5%, broker-dealers - 5.2%, their customers - 4.1%. According to data of Central Securities Depository, all transactions on placement MEKKAM-12 issue 112 by the end of calculations based on trades executed. 11.1% of the total outstanding bonds were redeemed by the subjects of the pension market, 59.3% - BWI, 22.8% - STB clients, 5.6% - broker-dealer firms, 1.2% - clients of broker-dealers. - Norilsk Nickel (RTS: GMKN) may make Rusal new proposal for redemption of shares, "Rusal" in the MMC, while the new offer may change as the better and for worse, and the size of the acquire at the aluminum company package can be lowered, told reporters a source familiar with the situation. Norilsk Nickel is considering updating its offer (for redemption of shares, "Rusal" in the MMC), not excluding the change in the price parameters, "- he said. According to him, offering to Rusal could be done" at any moment. "" It depends on whether the positive developments of Rusal - said the source. "The road to a deal - a movement towards each other until the other side there is no movement" - he said. Talking about how and at what price can be made a new proposal, the source said that the price may rise as well as down - similar to the Dutch auction (a fall). In the latter case, the offer may be as low as $ 11-11.5 billion (per package). According to him, "Norilsk Nickel" at some point in time, which very soon will come, "may change the position and, instead of raising its offer to reduce it. In addition to this, Norilsk Nickel may change the amount of repurchased shares Rusal. "It may be reduced by the amount of the package (available from Rusal) - not 25% but, for example, 23% of that in future they have been able to implement the remainder of the market" - said the source. In this case, Norilsk is not ready to consider a buyout offer at a price higher than $ 14 billion in "Beyond the board, when there were discussions on possible parameters of the transaction, is the upper limit that was discussed, but no one called - is a $ 14 billion," - said a source . He suggested that the position of Rusal may change when the time comes to pay interest on the loan company. Commenting on the negotiations with the shareholders of Rusal, the source pointed out that they are configured to search for a compromise at a higher price level: Vekselberg and Prokhorov have indicated that are set to continue negotiations. They probably would like to Norilsk raise the price, that they were arguments for Deripaska. According to him, with the chairman of the board of Rusal, and one of the owners of the company Viktor Vekselberg, an agreement was reached that Rusal would withdraw the request to convene an extraordinary meeting, and Norilsk Nickel refuses buy back. But Oleg Deripaska on board of directors of Norilsk Nickel, according to him, said, "Let everyone do everything as planned." In Rusal Interfax said that the aluminum company is public, and the only authority who can take decisions in respect of any transactions Rusal - its board of directors. "None of the individual shareholders of any negotiations regarding the sale of a package we do not know," - said a spokesman for Rusal. Norilsk is ready to deal, the source said, the company has already received a guarantee of funding redemption of shares from Rusal with a pool of banks. "It's more than one bank. Foremost among them - not the state bank and one of the big Western banks," - he added. This news gave a dose of optimism that a positive impact on share prices Norilsk Nickel. The main hope of being successful Norilsk situation around the controlling party is the obligation Rusal, thereby selling the package MMC Aluminum Company will need money for debt repayment. Analysts JSC "BCC Invest" leave the current recommendation to "hold" with a target price of $ 25.08 per depositary receipt. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" and expect the following developments in international markets today: - Russia is expected to publish data on the fiscal balance since the beginning of the year and international reserves. - in Germany 13:00 (AST) will be published data on producer prices. At 17:00 (AST) in the UK are expected to publish data from the CBI for optimism in the business environment and Trends Total Orders. At 21:00 (AST) will be published data on consumer confidence in the euro area. - U.S. at 19:30 (AST) will be published data to first and second applications for unemployment benefits, and 21:00 (AST) are expected to publish data on sales of existing homes, according to leading indicators and an index of activity FRB Philadelphia. - Today reports Morgan Stanley, Seagate Technology PLC, Google Inc, and others. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in the domestic Kazakh market:: ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Target Predicted price. code price % Recom- mendation ----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 469 479 +2.13 Neutral KKGBp 210 335 +59.52 Buy Halyk Bank HSBK 397 386 -2.77 Buy Bank CenterCredit CCBN 651 646 -0.77 Hold Tsesnabank TSBN 900 1,030 +14.44 Neutral KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 19,700 22,300 +13.20 Buy Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,800 3,977 +4.66 Hold ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,600 2,298 -11.62 Neutral Kazakhtelekom KZTK 19,800 19,200 -3.03 Hold KZTKp 9,200 9,300 +1.06 Hold MREK MREK 1,100 1,130 +2.73 Hold ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-01-20]