Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for January 14, 2011

/IRBIS. January 14, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for January 14, 2011. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" now expect a positive opening of trading on the background of the growth of quotations of depositary receipts of Kazakhstan issuers yesterday in London. Further, during the day at the KASE trading dynamics will depend on investor sentiment in the western trading floors, at the end of the day is possible profit-taking before the weekend. JSC "BCC Invest" also notes the following important events in the Kazakh market: - World Bank (WB) predicts slowdown in global GDP growth to 3.3% in 2011 compared to 3.9%, which, according to his estimates, made in the past year, the report says the World Bank about the prospects of a global economy. The economy this year, according to the WB, will grow more slowly in developed countries (2.4% against 2.8% in 2010) and in developing countries (6% to 7% in 2010). In 2012, the World Bank predicts world GDP growth at 3.6% in developed countries - 2.7%, in developing countries - 6.1%. The World Bank notes that economic growth in the next two years will be not high enough to eradicate unemployment and to cope with the sluggish economy and selected sectors that are most strongly affected by the crisis. Continuation of post- crisis recovery of the developing countries will be supported by increased capital inflows into their economies. Nevertheless, the magnitude of carry trade is expected to be reduced to the extent that, as in developed countries will be tightening monetary policy and rising interest rates. "Including the resulting influx of funds into developing countries will grow more slowly - a little more than 10% in 2011 and slightly less than 5% in 2012" - the report says. In general, as the World Bank, economic activity in most developing countries returned to pre-crisis levels, or close to recovery. This is due to the revival of domestic and international financial flows and higher prices for raw materials, which led to the loading capacity to stand in the crisis. Restoration of many developed economies (as well as a number of developing countries in Europe and Central Asia), in contrast, was strong enough to cope with high unemployment and idle power use, said the WB. The growth of these economies in the long term will continue to restrain the restructuring of liabilities of the banking sector, high debt load and shrinking consumer sectors, which grew rapidly during the economic boom. Support global economic growth will provide strong domestic demand in developing countries, which provided 46% of global growth in 2010, predicts the World Bank. High prices for energy resources, including oil, will continue to maintain a steady growth in the economies of exporting resources, for which the crisis was less dramatic than for others. The average oil price in 2011, the World Bank predicts, will be at $ 85 per barrel in 2012, it dropped to $ 80.4. In 2010 it was $ 79 per barrel. In the short term economic recovery may prevent such factors as the possible aggravation of the problems with government debt in Europe and the emergence of imbalances in exchange rates, prices for resources and assets in connection with the volatility of capital flows on a background of low interest rates in developed countries. In addition, it is likely to reduce food availability and increasing poverty in many underdeveloped regions due to the possible continuation of rising food prices on international markets. According to WB experts, long-term risks associated with the fact that the countries most affected by the crisis, may prefer to concentrate on short-term crisis responses and not on addressing structural problems (fiscal sustainability, financial sector regulation, competitiveness and fiscal incentives for job creation , the flexibility of exchange rates, volatility major reserve currency), which became the cause of the downturn. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" and expect the following developments in international markets today: - Russia is expected to publish data on monetary aggregates, as well as the trade balance for November. - in Germany 13:00 (AST) will be published data on the consumer price index for December. In the UK, 15:30 (AST) will be published data on the Producer Price Index for December. At 16:00 (AST) will be published data on euro area consumer price index for December and the Euro zone trade balance for December. - U.S. at 19:30 (AST) is expected to publish data on consumer price indices in December and the volume of retail sales for December. At 20:15 (AST) will be published data on the volume of industrial production and capacity utilization in December. At 20:55 (AST) will be published values of the index of consumer confidence in the University of Michigan in January. At 21:00 (AST) will be published data on commodity stocks for November. - Today reports JPMorgan Chase & Co. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in the domestic Kazakh market:: ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Target Predicted price. code price % Recom- mendation ----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 447 479 +7.16 Neutral KKGBp 210 335 +59.52 Buy Halyk Bank HSBK 394 386 -2.03 Buy Bank CenterCredit CCBN 623 646 +3.69 Hold Tsesnabank TSBN 865 1,030 +19.08 Neutral KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 18,150 22,300 +22.87 Buy Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,750 3,977 +6.05 Hold ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,510 2,298 -8.45 Neutral Kazakhtelekom KZTK 18,800 19,200 +2.13 Hold KZTKp 8,850 9,300 +5.08 Hold MREK MREK 1,100 1,130 +2.73 Hold ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-01-14]