Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for January 13, 2011

/IRBIS, January 13, 2011/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for January 13, 2011. Analysts of IFH RESMI give attention to the following to the important events in the markets: - On Wednesday, January 12, Kazakhstan's stock market closed on a positive note. The local stock market indicator rose 1.7% and amounted to 1 747.50 points amid growing global indices. In the secondary market of Kazakhstan Stock Exchange was signed 69 deals with shares worth KZT156.5 million, or 570.8 million KZT was less than that of the previous trading day. Representatives of the metallurgical sector, Kazakhmys Plc and ENRC Plc acted as leaders of growth of stock price, as affecting the positive dynamics of the local benchmark. By the end of the trading session papers of these companies have increased in price by 4.5% and 4.2% respectively. Shares of National Bank, Bank CenterCredit and KKB showed growth of quotations on 1.3%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Price shares Exploration and Production KMG closed by the end of the trading session increased by 1.3%, while the price was KZT17,600. Yesterday trading GDRs and equities of Kazakhstan issuers on the LSE took place in a positive way. HSBK LI (+1.0%), KKB LI (-0.3%), KMG LI (2.0%), ENRC LN (+4.4%), KAZ LN (+3.7%). Today, for the local market of a positive external background. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" believe that the growth of KASE index closes at the end of the trading day. - Yesterday the U.S. stock markets closed growing major indexes. Leading stock indicators reached their two-year highs against the backdrop of successful trading sovereign bonds from a number of Euro zone countries. At the forefront of the growth of stock indices made by the financial sector. As part of the Dow Jones index of stock price growth leader were JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, whose shares rose 2.6% and 2.0% respectively. The Dow Jones rose 83.56 points (0.72%) and entrenched at the level of 11,755.44 points. S & P 500 closed by growth of 11.48 points (0.90%) and recorded at 1,285.96 points. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 36.69 points (0.61%) and amounted to 6 050.72 points. Today in the U.S. is expected to yield data on trade balance. - HSBC has posted bonds totaling $ 4 billion, which was one of the largest offerings of corporate debt securities this year. Placement occurred in four trenches. PNP Paribas SA and Nomura Holdings Inc. also undertook a placement of bonds in the U.S. market. The total emission volume of debt instruments of the three banks totaled $ 9.1 billion worth noting that the largest European banks, Deutsche Bank AG, Barclays Bank Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland were also in the number of active issuers of debt instruments. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" believe that, given the volatility in the euro area, associated with sovereign debt crises in several countries of the conglomerate, as well as low interest rates in the U.S., borrowers so-called group of "Yankee borrowers", prefer to use the U.S. market as a platform for accumulation of funding. IFD "RESMI" believes that this trend will continue until such time until I finally set out a plan to break out of the Euro zone countries the debt crisis and official interest rates in the U.S. will be at record low levels. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" believe that now is not the best time to invest in bonds last issue HSBC, since the coupons in the two editions of this total program allocation ($ 4 billion) are tied to the rate of three-month dollar LIBOR, whose value is predicted IFD RESMI ", will be at fairly low levels in the near term. - Today, 12 January, was an auction of government bonds in Portugal. The total volume of securities sold amounted to 1.2 billion euros, of which $ 599 million maturing in 2020 and $ 600 million maturing in 2014. Despite fears in the markets, the yield on 10-year government bond fell to 6.806% yield of the previous auction to 6.716%. Average three-year government bond yield was 5.396% versus 4.041% on the previous auction. Demand for 10-year government bonds exceeded supply by 3.1 times, the 3-year in 2.6 times. In general, the yield was sponsored by the European Central Bank, which actively bought the Portuguese government bonds before the auction. However, the effect of this measure is short. On Thursday, 13 January, are expected to place Spain and Italy. The last two days quotes euro showed increased volatility in the run-up to placement of government bonds by Portugal. Yesterday, after successfully passing placement euro played their losses. We believe the euro will remain extremely volatile in the future of one month, but the trend is positive. However, according to some estimates, Portugal in the first quarter of 2011 will need to raise about $ 8 billion euros, and each subsequent placement will exert pressure on rates and demand, and thus to the euro. According to forecasts of IFD "RESMI", the euro/dollar at the end of the 1st quarter of 2011 could reach 1.25-1.26. - REIT ETF - attractive instruments for investment. In 2010, companies engaged in real estate, to assess the benefits of investment real estate funds, because of their tax preferences. So, for the year a number of companies such as Weyerhaeuser have been reorganized into a REIT founded by real estate investment funds, such as Westfield Retail Trust. In 2011 expected to grow REIT market in developed countries and an increase in acquisitions of real estate. The most popular among ETF REIT are those that invest in different types of real estate investment funds, including its portfolio industrial, office, residential, hotel and other types of real estate. In general, ETF invests in the largest representatives of the market REIT, such as Simon Property Group, Vornado Realty Trust, Public Storage, etc. - Yesterday on commodity markets again reigned "bullish" sentiment. Sect precious metals closed higher prices in the range of 0.08% - 1.32%. The largest growth rates among the precious metals once again became the palladium, the price of which rose by 1.32%. Sugar closed offset by a decrease in the price of 2.23%. Futures price of corn rose 1.6% against the USDA statement on the reduction of stocks of maize in the country. Oil brand Brent (spot) reached $ 97.4 per barrel. Euro continued to win back the position of the dollar against the backdrop of successful auctions of bonds of a number of Euro zone countries. Currency pair euro/dollar closed at a ratio of 1 euro / $ 1.3131. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI. Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 440 On Review n/a 53.25 Halyk bank 380 519 36.6% 474 61.32 Bank Center Credit 611 On Review 1,007 63.90 RD KMG 17,600 On Review 23,159 58.01 Kazkhtelekom 18,897 On Review 32,000 75.20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought/oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100%/0%. - Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1.230 m.; - Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. - The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24.895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-01-13]