Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for December 27, 2010

/IRBIS. December 27, 2010/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for December 27, 2010. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" expect a positive start of last trading week of year. JSC "BCC Invest" also notes the following important events in the Kazakh market: - The international rating agency Standard & Poor's assigned a state fund, "SK" credit rating at 'BBB' foreign currency and VBB + "in the national currency from" stable "outlook, the report indicates state fund. Rate Fund, a sovereign rating of Kazakhstan. "The fact of receiving an investment grade rating would allow the fund," SK "to attract debt financing on more favorable terms and, therefore, for companies and financial institutions in Kazakhstan, financed by the fund," - the report says. "SK" in I half-year net profit against the loss a year earlier - State Fund "SK" received in January-June 2010 net profit of KZT281.837 billion against a net loss of KZT17.212 billion in the same period last year. Such data are published in the Consolidated Financial Reporting state fund. Gross profit fund was in the reporting period, KZT556.874 bln against KZT468.633 bln in the first half of 2009, pretax profit - KZT384.320 bln and KZT114.412 bln, respectively. The fund's assets at the end of June 2010 reached KZT11,457.534 billion in compared to KZT11,072.803 bln at the beginning of this year, the obligation - KZT6,541.896 bln and KZT6,329.043 billion, shareholders' equity - KZT4,915.638 bln and KZT4,743.760 billion, registered capital KZT3,778.299 bln vs. KZT3 748.299 billion. - The management of MMC Norilsk Nickel, in alliance with the holding company Interros plans to buy back shares for $ 4.5 billion, according to Kommersant. The Board yesterday approved a program to improve the capitalization of Norilsk Nickel, the newspaper said, citing a source close to the company. According to the newspaper, the first phase of offshore subsidiaries Norilsk buyback will buy securities of up to $ 3 billion with a premium to the market 10-15 per cent. Since MMC can buy about 7 percent of the shares, wrote Kommersant. In the second stage within six months of Norilsk Nickel plans to buy its own shares from the market for another $ 1.5 billion, the newspaper said. Press Service of the Norilsk Nickel could not comment on operational agency Bloomberg, the information published in Kommersant. - Percentage of Rusal in OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel is worth at least $ 15 billion, according to Nathaniel Rothschild, the chairman of the board of directors EN + Group. This is a $ 3 billion more than requested the MMC for this package. Package in a 25 percent stake owned by Rusal, controlled by billionaire Mr. Oleg Deripaska, worth "a conservatively estimated $ 15 billion and possibly much more," said an e-mail Rothschild, chairman of the board Mr Deripaska's holding company. Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of nickel, Dec. 16 offered to buy a package of shares in Rusal for $ 12 billion of capital output Rusal MMC can end the long-running conflict on the issue of corporate strategy between Mr. Deripaska and Norilsk shareholder Mr. Vladimir Potanin, said Nomura Holdings Plc. Rusal, which initially rejected the offer of Norilsk Nickel, said in 1922 December that it would be studied in committee aluminum company. Rusal may sell the package at a price of $ 12 billion to $ 15 billion, said the Dec. 20 newspaper Vedomosti, billionaire Mr. Mikhail Prokhorov, who owns 17 percent stake in the aluminum companies. The next year, Norilsk Nickel quite "can make a profit before tax, interest, depreciation and amortization of $ 10.9 billion, said yesterday Rothschild." Even a modest multiplier at six, the business value from $ 54 billion to $ 60 billion, "- said Rothschild. Norilsk Nickel Corporate discount Ebitda this year may reach $ 7.15 billion in 2011 - $ 7.63 billion, according to the consensus forecast of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. "Norilsk Nickel shares are traded at a discount of about 40-45 percent due to the risks associated with corporate governance, "- said Rothschild. Rusal is seeking the resignation of director general of Norilsk Nickel, Vladimir Strzhalkovsky and re-electing the board of directors of the company. Rusal yesterday demanded to convene a meeting of shareholders of Norilsk Nickel to elect new directors after the MMC without the approval of the Board Directors agreed to sell 8 percent equity trader Trafigura Beheer BV. According to the JSC "BCC Invest", Norilsk Nickel intends to seriously increase its control over the company in the near future. In the case of an offer to Rusal, to buy 25% stake for $ 12 billion United States, as we said earlier, we expect a counter-proposal, but on the other hand, a higher price. JSC "BCC Invest" leaves the current recommendation of depositary receipts to "hold" with a target price of 25,08 USD. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" and expect the following developments in international markets today: - Russia is expected to publish data on an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in December. - The UK 06:01 (AST) data were published on the review of real estate prices from Hometrack in December. - U.S. at 21:30 (AST) is expected to publish data on the index of manufacturing activity from the Dallas Fed. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in the domestic Kazakh market:: ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Target Predicted price. code price % Recom- mendation ----------------- ------- ---------- ------ ---------------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 430 479 +11.40 Neutral KKGBp 210 335 +59.52 Buy Halyk Bank HSBK 375 386 +2.93 Buy Bank CenterCredit CCBN 594.98 646 +8.58 Hold Tsesnabank TSBN 865 1,030 +19.08 Neutral KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 17,550 22,300 +27.07 Buy Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 3,580 3,977 +11.09 Hold ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,300 2,298 -0.09 Hold Kazakhtelekom KZTK 18,600 19,200 +3.23 Buy KZTKp 8,910 9,300 +4.38 Buy MREK MREK 1,100 1,130 +2.73 Hold ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-12-27]