Market reveiws and recommendations of Financial Company REAL INVEST.KZ (Kazakhstan) analysts on November 15, 2010
15.11.10 16:39
/IRBIS, November 15, 2010/ - JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz
(Almaty, REAL Invest.kz) provided to IRBIS overview of major developments
in Kazakhstan and the world markets on November 15, 2010.
JSC Financial Company REAL Invest.kz notes the following significant
developments on the world stock, commodity and currency market:
- Friday trading on the American and European markets ended lower
major indexes. Published yet on Thursday, data on inflation in China,
according to which Celestial CPI in October rose by 4.4%, the 25-
month high, gave serious cause market participants to expect soon to
tighten monetary policy by the Chinese authorities to curb the
inflationary increase. An additional negative factor was the release of
data on the change Euro zone GDP in the third quarter - the value
index increased during the reporting period, by 0.1% less than the
already modest expectations of analysts had forecast growth at 0.5%.
Macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. only added confidence
"Bear", active fixed income, index of consumer confidence in the U.S.
this month rose by 0.1 points lower than analysts' forecasts, is
expected to increase rate to a mark of 69 points. As a result of the
day, the U.S. the Dow Jones and S & P 500 fell by 0.8% and 1.18%
respectively, while S & P 500 ended the week below the
psychological level of 1,200 points. As a result of weeks of U.S.
indices have recorded substantial losses at the level of 2.2%. Indexes
in Europe and on the week to adjust, the French CAC 40 up to five
sessions, fell by 2.2%, German DAX by 0.28%, while Britain's FTSE
100 for the week, adjusted to 1.3%.
- past week turned out different sites for emerging markets.
Immediately two major interstate activities - G20 summit in Seoul and
the APEC Summit in Tokyo, took place at the end of last week,
according to analysts would have to make significant adjustments in
the global balance of economic forces. However, in addition to an oral
agreement in fact the U.S. and China did not untie the currency of
war, analysts believe that some really effective measures aimed at
strengthening the fragile global economic growth made and were not.
Sites in developing countries, under pressure and support a number
of factors have closed the past week in different directions, so if the
Indian BSE and Russian PTC grown up to five consecutive trading
session at a quarter percent, the Brazilian BOVESPA sank
immediately to 3.08%, while the Chinese SSEC inflationary pressure
Data has fallen by 4.6%. Today's session began with the Asian area
of steady growth - around the "fault" output data for Japan's GDP in
the third quarter - rather than analysts had expected growth to 2.6%
of GDP of the Rising Sun has grown by 3.9%. Thus, for premarket
sites emerging markets to the present moment is regarded as
positive.
- quotations of "black gold" on the basis of the last session to adjust on
2.3%, fully covering a small increase at the beginning of the week and
finished Friday's session below $ 85 a barrel. Despite a rather
substantial decline in oil prices that occurred against the background
of the formation of general negative mood of investors at mid-day
schedule is still clearly visible upward dynamics. In the short term
quotes "black gold" can be supported by macro-economic statistics of
Asia, that under certain conditions can become the driver for a new
two-year high at $ 90 per barrel.
- the price of an ounce of gold for the entire second half of the week
were in a state of correction, down from a maximum value at 3.7%. At
the same time, the daily chart, the uptrend is stored here, however,
very likely in the short term, beginning a little consolidation, with the
possibility of a moderate correction of quotations, so that by the end
of the year, as close to the mark at $ 1,500, and perhaps even try to
overcome it.
- quotes a regional European currency on the basis of last week fell by
2.4%, breaking through the psychological level at around 1.37, and
despite a small correction on Friday closed below it. In total, up to a
half weeks, the currency pair EUR/USD corrected for 4.4%, and
traders will find the answer to a difficult question: what is worse - once
again warmed up fears about the budgetary problems of the Euro
zone, or inflationary pressures caused by the recent adoption of a
package of measures the Fed . According to the "REAL Invest.kz",
the current situation is more negative for the euro, which resulted in
short-term decrease in quotations of the pair EUR/USD.
- British pound, at the end of the week virtually unchanged in value,
while there was repulsed quotations pair GBP/USD from the 1.60
mark. That last fact, according to the "REAL Invest.kz", provided that
the British currency again "will resist" bear "in the case of another
attempt to break through the psychological level, may be decisive to
the very end of the year. Of the maximum value for the year
GBP/USD pair is currently trading at a discount to only 1.23%.
Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" noted that the most attractive stories
among the shares of Kazakh companies are RD Kazmunaigas,
Kazakhtelecom and Halyk Bank. Especially attractive look and EP
Kazakhtelecom, as both companies are very strong balance sheet with
low debt burden, the EP's net debt at all negative, i.e. cash flows of the
company exceed liabilities. Besides their business generates more free
cash flow, which allows them to pay a very solid dividends. Dividend
income on preferred shares of KMG and Kazakhtelecom is 6-8% and 3-
4% of ordinary shares. Shares of these companies are traded much
cheaper than the shares of similar companies in other emerging markets.
This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation
to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the
opinions expressed in this material.
[2010-11-15]