Market reveiws and recommendations of Financial Company REAL INVEST.KZ (Kazakhstan) analysts on October 20, 2010
20.10.10 17:47
/IRBIS, October 20, 2010/ - JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz
(Almaty, REAL Invest.kz) provided to IRBIS overview of major developments
in Kazakhstan and the world markets on October 20, 2010.
JSC Financial Company REAL Invest.kz notes the following significant
developments on the world stock, commodity and currency market:
- major U.S. and European markets finished the day lower. Positive in
general, macroeconomic statistics, coupled with equally positive
corporate reports, published on Tuesday, completely leveled of the
Chinese Central Bank, rose unexpectedly for many, the refinancing
rate by 0.25% from 5.31% to 5.56%. Such a move authorities
Celestial explained "the stabilization of the main macroeconomic
parameters from the global economic crisis, while referred to the
liquidity crisis is not too much, and then destabilize the economic
situation in the country (GDP growth of China in the crisis years 2008
and 2009 was respectively 9% and 8 7%, respectively). An additional
factor that led to a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar came
forward a message the U.S. Treasury that the near-term expected
depreciation of the dollar should not be. Finally, the Japanese
government revised its economic growth forecast downward, against
the backdrop of the country began in the soft phase of deflation.
Strengthening of the yen had a negative impact on Japanese
exporters, reducing profits of enterprises. At the same time, the
volume of construction of new U.S. homes last month rose by 2
thousand units, while analysts expected a drop rate of 29 thousand
units. The index of business expectations in Germany in October of
this year decreased by 2.9 points - to -7.2 points, while analysts
predicted that the indicator value will be -7 points. Published on
Tuesday, corporate reports were extremely positive about the good
results reported Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs,
Johnson & Johnson, Harley Davidson and Yahoo. As a result of the
day, European indexes were down 0.4% -0.7%, U.S. indices closed
the day with a decrease in the area of 1.5%. Today, market
participants will wait for the "beige book" The Fed, in this connection,
"REAL Invest.kz" expects weak, inactive trading began.
- Site emerging markets finished the day differently. Venues BRIC
quartet of trading results on Tuesday, mostly in capitalization fell on
0,65% grew only Chinese Shanghai Composite. External background
before opening of the regional sites to a given minute is characterized
as a negative, as evidenced by the course of trading in Asia, where
the indices are under pressure, "bears."
- The cost of a barrel of oil up to the last trading day fell $ 2.65, which
served as the only cause of the Central Bank of China, raise interest
rates. Publication of weekly data on stocks of petroleum and
petroleum products in the country, in view of the ambiguous nature of
the data on the dynamics of oil prices did not significantly affected.
Further prospects of oil prices will be, according to the "REAL
Invest.kz", determined by the results of today's publication of the Fed
meeting, which is all the clearer it becomes faced with the necessity
of introducing additional incentives.
- troy ounce of gold up to the last session, fell by 2% to stay below $
1,350. In addition, already dubbed by the data of China, led to the
strengthening U.S. dollar, the reason for selling "precious metal"
could well serve as the present situation in terms of technical analysis
on the background of strong growth in the price of gold up to the last
two months. Fed meeting should reflect on the future of ounces of
gold, but analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" believes that in the medium
term, continue corrective mood, and the cost of "precious metal" may
reach the $ 1,300 an ounce.
- major currency pairs forex market on the basis of the last session
substantially corrected, resulting in the first place who grew up in the
value of the dollar. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD up to the day fell by
0.9% and 1.1%, but held fall leaves border uptrend not fixed
JSC Financial company "REAL Invest.kz" notes the following
significant events in the Kazakh market:
- Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation is expanding its iron ore
resource base in Brazil. Holding company acquires 100% Mineracao
Minas Bahia SA (MIBA) and 51% of the enlarged share capital
Mineracao Peixe Bravo SA (MPB). Together, these acquisitions are
estimated at up to $ 304 million to be paid from funds available
ENRC. The deal should be completed by October 20, 2010. Holding
also received a 3-year option to buy the remaining 49% MPB for $ 50
million deal involves the payment of $ 250 million to existing
shareholders of up to $ 54 million to the Steel do Brasil Participacoes
SA, which had previously entered into an agreement to acquire 100%
of existing shares of MIBA and 50 % of shares of MPB and gave the
sellers agreed to enter into independent arrangements with ENRC.
Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" believe that the news will not affect the
share prices of the company since acquired the assets are still at an
early stage of development.
- Growth of Kazakhstan's GDP in January-September 2010 amounted
to 7.5%, announced by President Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev at the
meeting with the governors of the regions on Tuesday in Astana. "The
President noted that the economy shows good growth's GDP grew by
7.5%. Industrial production rose by 10%, including in the
manufacturing industry - 20%, chemicals - 77%, machine building - 56
%. From the beginning, created 200,000 new jobs, "- stated in the
press service of the President, released after the meeting.
Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" noted that the most attractive stories
among the shares of Kazakh companies are RD Kazmunaigas,
Kazakhtelecom and Halyk Bank. Especially attractive look and EP
Kazakhtelecom, as both companies are very strong balance sheet with
low debt burden, the EP's net debt at all negative, i.e. cash flows of the
company exceed liabilities. Besides their business generates more free
cash flow, which allows them to pay a very solid dividends. Dividend
income on preferred shares of KMG and Kazakhtelecom is 6-8% and 3-
4% of ordinary shares. Shares of these companies are traded much
cheaper than the shares of similar companies in other emerging markets.
This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation
to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the
opinions expressed in this material.
[2010-10-20]