Market reveiws and recommendations of Financial Company REAL INVEST.KZ (Kazakhstan) analysts on October 11, 2010
11.10.10 17:54
/IRBIS, October 11, 2010/ - JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz
(Almaty, REAL Invest.kz) provided to IRBIS overview of major developments
in Kazakhstan and the world markets on October 11, 2010.
JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz notes the following significant
developments on the world stock, commodity and currency market:
- trading on major U.S. and European markets on Friday ended
differently. Published statistics from the U.S. labor market has sent a
correction of most of the indexes in Europe, while the quotes of major
U.S. indexes rose on expectations of an early adoption of a new
package of measures to stimulate the economy against the background
is not very unique situation in the U.S. labor market. According to the
report of the American Labor, the number of new jobs last month fell by
94 thousand, while analysts do not expect a change for this indicator. At
the same time, the unemployment rate in the world's largest economy in
September remained unchanged at 9.6%, which was better than
forecasts of experts, expected growth rate to 9.7% in the marks. Thus,
market participants, since the end of the session and does not decide
how to characterize the published data, after moderate profit-taking
early in the session, the afternoon paper to buy, which allowed the S &
P 500 finished the week at around 1 160 points. On the whole past
week proved to be quite positive for the developed areas of the West.
Dow Jones and S & P 500 closed down the growth to 1.63% and 1.67%
respectively. The French CAC 40 up to a week increased by 1.92,
Germany's DAX added 1.3%, Britain's FTSE 100 rose by 1.16%. Next
week in the U.S. will leave sensitive data on import and export prices,
and will be published weekly statistics from the labor market and
changes in crude oil and petroleum products. In the euro area is
expected to yield data on inflation, but this will be published in the UK
final figures on changes in GDP.
- past week for sites emerging markets proved to be quite successful,
quotes, regional exchanges mostly grown up. "Podkachala" Indian BSE,
closed at the week lower by -0.95%, while Brazil's Bovespa added
0.85%, the Chinese SSEC after protracted output grew just 3%, finally
the Russian market by PTC as the first five trading sessions are bad
older, an increase in the capitalization of 2.28%. As one of the main
drivers for purchases throughout the past week can certainly highlight
the positive nature of trading on the commodity areas.
- barrel of WTI on the results of four of the five sessions last week,
managed to close above the level a year range, which is located at
around $ 70-80 per barrel. As one of the main reasons for such
dynamics of quotations of "black gold" for the ongoing for the past few
weeks, the weakening U.S. dollar, amid expectations of new injections
of liquidity the Fed, as measures to support the economy. At the same
time, market participants say that the real fundamental reason for the
long-term breakout above a resistance level, which is located at around
$ 80 at the moment, and very soon we should expect the correction in
oil prices. "REAL Invest.kz" took a similar view, with the only difference
being that can assume it is not too prolonged growth of quotations of
"black gold" for example, a similar penetration in the spring, when oil
prices began to be adjusted only reached the level of $ 85 per barrel.
- The cost of ounce of gold for much of last week, consistently set new
highs, some have adjusted in the second half Thursday. Maximum
historical marker was $ 1,360, at the same time, rising up to Friday will
close quotes only at the level of $ 1,347 per ounce, thus, continued
growth in the next week, it will be possible only in case of penetration of
the mark once again. At the same time, most analysts expect the
continuation of the dynamics of the past few months, while
simultaneously weakening U.S. dollar, and the ambiguity in the
forecasts of the global economy.
- on the results of last week, the euros value against the U.S. dollar
increased by more than 1%. Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" noted that an
important step should be to overcome a pair of EUR / USD mark of
1.40, but after not too successful attempt on Thursday, the chart has
developed one of the models of candlesticks, implying a further
reduction of quotations from the current level. Euro virtually non-stop
has been growing for over a month, and not taken psychologically
important level at around 1.40, could become an additional factor that
can make a pair of EUR/USD corrected. The British pound on the week
also strengthened against the dollar by 1%, ending the trading week
near the mark of 1.60. The last time quotes pair GBP/USD reaching the
top of this, in early August, followed by the pound, almost a month left
adjusted.
Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" noted that the most attractive stories
among the shares of Kazakh companies are RD Kazmunaigas,
Kazakhtelecom and Halyk Bank. Especially attractive look and EP
Kazakhtelecom, as both companies are very strong balance sheet with
low debt burden, the EP's net debt at all negative, i.e. cash flows of the
company exceed liabilities. Besides their business generates more free
cash flow, which allows them to pay a very solid dividends. Dividend
income on preferred shares of KMG and Kazakhtelecom is 6-8% and 3-
4% of ordinary shares. Shares of these companies are traded much
cheaper than the shares of similar companies in other emerging markets.
This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation
to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the
opinions expressed in this material.
[2010-10-11]