Market reveiws and recommendations of Financial Company REAL INVEST.KZ (Kazakhstan) analysts on October 7, 2010
/IRBIS, October 7, 2010/ - JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz (Almaty,
REAL Invest.kz) provided to IRBIS overview of major developments in
Kazakhstan and the world markets on October 7, 2010.
JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz notes the following significant
developments on the world stock, commodity and currency market:
- trading on major U.S. and European markets have ended differently.
Market participants, for most of the last trading session on the
background out of a package of controversial nature of news, trying to
determine the direction, and if the European markets up to the day
celebrating the victory of the bulls, the U.S. indices closed in different
directions. Of the positive news should celebrate the release of euro zone
GDP data, which in the second quarter grew by 1.9%, with analysts'
expectations of growth of only 1%. In addition, the volume of industrial
orders in Germany rose in August on 3,4% monthly terms, while the
specialists predicted that figure will grow by 0,9%. Pressure on the
markets have provided a message ADP, under which the number of jobs
in the private sector of the U.S. in September dropped by 39 thousand,
while the expected increase of 20 thousand and a decrease in long-term
ratings of Ireland's local and foreign currencies from "A +" to "AA-"
International rating agency Fitch. According to the director in the
sovereign group Fitch, Chris Price, "Reducing the rating reflects Ireland's
unprecedented, and exceeded the expectations of the financial costs of
the country relating to the recapitalization of the authorities of the Irish
banks, particularly Anglo Irish Bank. Negative outlook due to uncertainty
regarding the timing and scope of economic recovery and fiscal
consolidation measures medium term. "Up to the day the European sites
have added significantly to the capitalization, closing within 0.9%. The
Dow Jones rose 22.93 points, or 0.21%, to 10,968 points. The index of
wide market S & P 500 closed was down 0.78 points, or 0.07%, at around
1160 points, but the important point is to close the day above the mark of
- Indices of sites emerging markets finished the past day trading mostly in
positive territory, playing a positive closure of the West on the eve of
sites. An additional powerful factor supporting acts dynamics of
commodity areas, in particular, oil quotes in the last ten sessions
demonstrate a very impressive growth. Premarket platforms for emerging
markets at a given moment are positive, as particularly evidenced by the
dynamics of the start of trading on the majority of Asian sites that have
reached new two-year highs.
- The cost of the contract for the supply of a barrel of WTI crude oil up to
the last session increased by 1.2%, setting the annual maximum at
around $ 83.5 per barrel. During the bidding took place and attempt to
take the turn at around $ 84, which resulted in a small correction of
quotations. Over the past ten sessions, the price of oil rose by more than
12.5%. Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" believe that the short-term price of a
barrel of oil should be adjusted after such significant growth. "REAL
Invest.kz" sees no reason for a thorough overcome more than a year the
price range of $ 70-80 per barrel.
- The cost of ounce of gold in the first half of last session, carried out
several failed attempts to overcome an important psychological level of $
1,350, and when most players have already agreed to postpone the
resolution of this issue at least until the next trading session, quotes,
"precious metal" unexpectedly, an hour before the close of trading
reached a psychological level, finished the day at around $ 1 353.4 per
ounce. "REAL Invest.kz" repeatedly noted the apparent overbought
current price levels for gold, after prolonged growth; however, the cost of
ounce continues to grow well, as though paying no attention to the factors
of technical analysis. At the same time, analysts of "REAL Invest.kz"
believe that the correction, which sooner or later catch up "precious
metal" will be swift, which significantly increases the risk of entry is a
short-term position at current levels.
- two majors of the Forex market on the basis of the last trading session
even stronger closer to the most important psychological mark, located at
the level of 1.40 for the EUR/USD and at around 1.60 for the pair
GBP/USD. Moreover, if the British pound, "marking time" in one place
more than a week, the euro steadily continued its impressive campaign.
Determining the future prospects for both pairs, according to the "REAL
Invest.kz", should make the ECB and the Bank of England, scheduled for
the second half of the week.
JSC Finance Company REAL Invest.kz notes the following significant
developments on the Kazakhstan market:
- Fitch Ratings has assigned a final rating of "BBB-" senior unsecured
bonds of the issuer Kazakhstan Temir Zholy Finance BV for $ 700
million maturing in 2020. KTZ Finance BV - registered in the
Netherlands FCCU, which is jointly owned national railway company
Kazakhstan Temir Zholy "(" KTZ ") and her" daughter "- JSC"
Kaztemirtrans. Issue guaranteed KTZ and its major operating the
"daughters" - "Kaztemirtrans JSC and" Locomotive. "KTZ has placed
a 10-year Eurobonds for $ 700 million with a yield of 6.375% per
annum on September 29. Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" believe that
this news will drop as soon as the yield on Eurobonds, as KTZ
received the highest possible rating, on the level of the sovereign
rating of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
- OJSC "Polyus Gold" did not offer Asaubaevym buy back its
production assets in Kazakhstan and confirms its intention to
implement the reverse takeover (RTO), told reporters the general
director of Polyus Mr. Eugene Ivanov at the forum "VTB Capital,"
"Russia is calling!" In early August, former chairman of the board of
directors and one former owner KazakhGold Mr. Kanat Asaubaev
issued a statement that the "Polyus" was trying to sell back productive
assets KazakhGold of family Asaubaev. Commenting on the situation
in Kazakhstan, E. Ivanov noted that the company does not intend to
relinquish RTO. "Plan of RTO, one way or another, will be
implemented. We hope to complete that complicated the negotiation
process with the Kazakh authorities and we hope that next year we
will have a full listing in London and maybe we will have a premium
listing," - said General Director of Polyus. "Mr. E. Ivanov added that
the situation in Kazakhstan "highly unusual". "I am very careful in
assessing the extent to which Kazakhstan is a country in which to
invest," - said Mr. E. Smith.
Analysts of "REAL Invest.kz" noted that the most attractive stories
among the shares of Kazakh companies are RD Kazmunaigas,
Kazakhtelecom and Halyk Bank. Especially attractive look and EP
Kazakhtelecom, as both companies are very strong balance sheet with
low debt burden, the EP's net debt at all negative, i.e. cash flows of the
company exceed liabilities. Besides their business generates more free
cash flow, which allows them to pay a very solid dividends. Dividend
income on preferred shares of KMG and Kazakhtelecom is 6-8% and 3-
4% of ordinary shares. Shares of these companies are traded much
cheaper than the shares of similar companies in other emerging markets.
This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation
to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the
opinions expressed in this material.