Market reveiws and recommendations of Financial Company REAL INVEST.KZ (Kazakhstan) analysts on October 7, 2010

07.10.10, 17:21
/IRBIS, October 7, 2010/ - JSC Finance Company REAL (Almaty, REAL provided to IRBIS overview of major developments in Kazakhstan and the world markets on October 7, 2010. JSC Finance Company REAL notes the following significant developments on the world stock, commodity and currency market: - trading on major U.S. and European markets have ended differently. Market participants, for most of the last trading session on the background out of a package of controversial nature of news, trying to determine the direction, and if the European markets up to the day celebrating the victory of the bulls, the U.S. indices closed in different directions. Of the positive news should celebrate the release of euro zone GDP data, which in the second quarter grew by 1.9%, with analysts' expectations of growth of only 1%. In addition, the volume of industrial orders in Germany rose in August on 3,4% monthly terms, while the specialists predicted that figure will grow by 0,9%. Pressure on the markets have provided a message ADP, under which the number of jobs in the private sector of the U.S. in September dropped by 39 thousand, while the expected increase of 20 thousand and a decrease in long-term ratings of Ireland's local and foreign currencies from "A +" to "AA-" International rating agency Fitch. According to the director in the sovereign group Fitch, Chris Price, "Reducing the rating reflects Ireland's unprecedented, and exceeded the expectations of the financial costs of the country relating to the recapitalization of the authorities of the Irish banks, particularly Anglo Irish Bank. Negative outlook due to uncertainty regarding the timing and scope of economic recovery and fiscal consolidation measures medium term. "Up to the day the European sites have added significantly to the capitalization, closing within 0.9%. The Dow Jones rose 22.93 points, or 0.21%, to 10,968 points. The index of wide market S & P 500 closed was down 0.78 points, or 0.07%, at around 1160 points, but the important point is to close the day above the mark of 1,150 points. - Indices of sites emerging markets finished the past day trading mostly in positive territory, playing a positive closure of the West on the eve of sites. An additional powerful factor supporting acts dynamics of commodity areas, in particular, oil quotes in the last ten sessions demonstrate a very impressive growth. Premarket platforms for emerging markets at a given moment are positive, as particularly evidenced by the dynamics of the start of trading on the majority of Asian sites that have reached new two-year highs. - The cost of the contract for the supply of a barrel of WTI crude oil up to the last session increased by 1.2%, setting the annual maximum at around $ 83.5 per barrel. During the bidding took place and attempt to take the turn at around $ 84, which resulted in a small correction of quotations. Over the past ten sessions, the price of oil rose by more than 12.5%. Analysts of "REAL" believe that the short-term price of a barrel of oil should be adjusted after such significant growth. "REAL" sees no reason for a thorough overcome more than a year the price range of $ 70-80 per barrel. - The cost of ounce of gold in the first half of last session, carried out several failed attempts to overcome an important psychological level of $ 1,350, and when most players have already agreed to postpone the resolution of this issue at least until the next trading session, quotes, "precious metal" unexpectedly, an hour before the close of trading reached a psychological level, finished the day at around $ 1 353.4 per ounce. "REAL" repeatedly noted the apparent overbought current price levels for gold, after prolonged growth; however, the cost of ounce continues to grow well, as though paying no attention to the factors of technical analysis. At the same time, analysts of "REAL" believe that the correction, which sooner or later catch up "precious metal" will be swift, which significantly increases the risk of entry is a short-term position at current levels. - two majors of the Forex market on the basis of the last trading session even stronger closer to the most important psychological mark, located at the level of 1.40 for the EUR/USD and at around 1.60 for the pair GBP/USD. Moreover, if the British pound, "marking time" in one place more than a week, the euro steadily continued its impressive campaign. Determining the future prospects for both pairs, according to the "REAL", should make the ECB and the Bank of England, scheduled for the second half of the week. JSC Finance Company REAL notes the following significant developments on the Kazakhstan market: - Fitch Ratings has assigned a final rating of "BBB-" senior unsecured bonds of the issuer Kazakhstan Temir Zholy Finance BV for $ 700 million maturing in 2020. KTZ Finance BV - registered in the Netherlands FCCU, which is jointly owned national railway company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy "(" KTZ ") and her" daughter "- JSC" Kaztemirtrans. Issue guaranteed KTZ and its major operating the "daughters" - "Kaztemirtrans JSC and" Locomotive. "KTZ has placed a 10-year Eurobonds for $ 700 million with a yield of 6.375% per annum on September 29. Analysts of "REAL" believe that this news will drop as soon as the yield on Eurobonds, as KTZ received the highest possible rating, on the level of the sovereign rating of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - OJSC "Polyus Gold" did not offer Asaubaevym buy back its production assets in Kazakhstan and confirms its intention to implement the reverse takeover (RTO), told reporters the general director of Polyus Mr. Eugene Ivanov at the forum "VTB Capital," "Russia is calling!" In early August, former chairman of the board of directors and one former owner KazakhGold Mr. Kanat Asaubaev issued a statement that the "Polyus" was trying to sell back productive assets KazakhGold of family Asaubaev. Commenting on the situation in Kazakhstan, E. Ivanov noted that the company does not intend to relinquish RTO. "Plan of RTO, one way or another, will be implemented. We hope to complete that complicated the negotiation process with the Kazakh authorities and we hope that next year we will have a full listing in London and maybe we will have a premium listing," - said General Director of Polyus. "Mr. E. Ivanov added that the situation in Kazakhstan "highly unusual". "I am very careful in assessing the extent to which Kazakhstan is a country in which to invest," - said Mr. E. Smith. Analysts of "REAL" noted that the most attractive stories among the shares of Kazakh companies are RD Kazmunaigas, Kazakhtelecom and Halyk Bank. Especially attractive look and EP Kazakhtelecom, as both companies are very strong balance sheet with low debt burden, the EP's net debt at all negative, i.e. cash flows of the company exceed liabilities. Besides their business generates more free cash flow, which allows them to pay a very solid dividends. Dividend income on preferred shares of KMG and Kazakhtelecom is 6-8% and 3- 4% of ordinary shares. Shares of these companies are traded much cheaper than the shares of similar companies in other emerging markets. This material is for informational purposes and is not an offer or recommendation to perform any transaction in securities. Agency IRBIS is not responsible for the opinions expressed in this material. [2010-10-07]