Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for July 26, 2010

/IRBIS, July 26, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for July 26, 2010. Analysts of IFH RESMI are paying attention to investors on the following important events in the markets now: - According to the Ministry of Finance of Russia, the state plans to privatize assets of more than $ 29 billion, to cover the budget deficit for the next 3 years. The government plans to sell minority stakes in 10 major companies over the 2011-2013 periods. These shares include the share of 27.1% of Transneft (the state pipeline system), share of 24.16% in the Russian oil majors - Rosneft stock in 24.5% of VTB Bank (Bank of Russia ¦ 2) 9,3% in Sberbank and the proportion of 25% minus one share in the Railways, the state railway monopoly. Russian Finance Ministry plans to reduce its budget deficit to 4% in 2011 and 2.9% in 2012, with the current 5%. The sale will include a decrease in the proportion of State ownership in the company to a controlling stock of 50% +1 share. It will also sell shares of ownership in the power FSK (28.11%), RusHydro (9.38%), 49% of the mortgage agency AHML, 49% of the agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank, and 25% minus 1 share in a company engaged in marine Movement Sovkomflot. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" believe that this step will allow Russia to raise more than $ 30 billion, especially with the participation of such giants as Railways and Sovkomflot. - Published on Friday the results of bank stress tests in Europe have identified seven potentially weak players of the banking sector. Among banks that have not undergone stress tests were: Greek Atebank, German Hypo Real Estate, and five Spanish financial institutions Espiga, Cajasur, Diada, Banca Civica and Unnim. European regulators found that these banks need to replenish capital in the amount of 3.5 billion euros. The main indicator was chosen as capital of the first level, which is the main indicator of the stability of banks to market shocks. Stress tests have shown that in the event of an adverse scenario, the capital of the first level seven European banks to fall below 6%. The reason for the testing of the banking sector in Europe has become a crisis of sovereign debt of the Euro zone, as well as concern about the probability of nucleation of the second wave of financial crisis. Also, the results of stress tests should have been allowed to evaluate the dependence of the banking system of Europe from the state support measures. Stress tests, which include an assessment of financial risks and effects of shocks to the banking system, were conducted for 91 of the largest bank in Europe, which accounted for 65% of banking assets in the region. Total testing were 16 banks of the euro area, as well as financial institutions, Britain, Denmark, Hungary, Poland and Sweden. In general, the results of stress tests were positive. According to the results of stress tests, European banks are able to withstand another crisis similar to the Greek. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI. Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 356 796 123.6% 490 30.70 Halyk bank 302 409 35.4% 394 47.03 Bank Center Credit 520 1,218 134.2% 896 37.39 ENRC 2,100 On review 2,761 49.57 Kazakhmys 2,600 On review 3,134 55.18 RD KMG 16,900 24,895 47.3% 24,561 39.79 Kazkhtelekom 15,000 33,842 125.6% 20,436 62.38 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0%. - Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1.230 m.; - Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. - The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24.895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-07-26]