Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for June 7, 2010

/IRBIS, June 7, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty. IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for June 7, 2010. Analysts of IFH RESMI are paying attention to investors on the following important events in the markets now: - Honda Motors last week increased salaries of its employees on strike at 24% at its manufacturing plant located in southern China. Foxconn offered to their employees 30% increase in wages, after a series of suicides, accidents in the workplace and strike at its factory, which holds high-tech products, including the Apple iPhone. These steps and events directly are those stones that changing the "pattern" of the Chinese economic model. Proportion of the working population in the division of national income fell from 53.4% in 1996 to 40.9% in 2009, whereas, corporate profits have increased from 21% of national income, up 31.3%. The increase in wages of the population of China, will certainly lead to an increase in domestic consumption, bringing China, with its capacity market leading positions in terms of consumption. That is, China's economy, which depends on exports and investment, will go partly for internal consumption. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" indicate that a natural way, all this negative impact on China's trade surplus with its excessive trade surplus, and GDP growth, which will be decreased from 11% to a more modest 9.7%, but the remainder are still quite high. Also, the increase in wages, will lead to greater purchasing power, which in turn will raise prices on goods. Chinese goods may lose their attractive low price, but it will allow other countries to begin to compete with China. It is possible that India will become a "second China" in the relay exports of cheap goods and cheap labor. - Kellogg Co. (K US), the largest American manufacturer of breakfast cereals and food products, has announced its intention to acquire the company in its sector. Representatives of the Company believe that now is a good time to buy. However, note that in the segment producer of breakfast cereals are not as many opportunities as a segment producer snacks. Most experts predict that in the second half of 2010 will be held active consolidation of the food industry. According to Bloomberg, just this year it was announced 203 deals to buy companies in the food sector, with the average transaction price of $253 million, including net debt. - In Kazakhstan, the volume of bank loans to the economy, declined in May 2010 to 6% compared to the same period last year. If in May 2009 were issued loans totaling 8.1 trillion. m., in May this year the figure was KZT7.6 trillion. Loans to the construction industry in May of this year amounted to KZT1.4 trillion, which is 12% lower than in May 2009. Loans to the needs of trade decreased by 5%. Thus, crediting the construction industry decreased by 12%, this was the most noticeable decline, after the decline in lending to the communications industry (- 22%). The slowdown in construction has led to a reduction in borrowing by the BWI. Analysts of IFD "RESMI" believe that the most likely, this figure will continue to decline against the slowdown in construction in the country. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI. Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 490 796 62.4% 892 43.43 Halyk bank 330 409 23.9% 743 56.34 Bank Center Credit 567 1,218 114.8% 1,054 40.08 ENRC 2,275 On review 2,867 47.73 Kazakhmys 2,540 On review 3,322 42.65 RD KMG 19,250 24,895 29.3% 25,907 48.10 Kazkhtelekom 13,750 33,842 146.1% 18,887 50.21 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0%. - Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1.230 m.; - Stocks of Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. - The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24.895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-06-07]