Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for April 9, 2010

/IRBIS, April 9, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for April 9, 2010. Analysts of IFH "RESMI" are paying attention to investors on the following important events in the markets now: - Mr. Yanukovych invited to Kazakhstan to build a grain terminal in the Ukrainian port. During his first official visit to Kazakhstan, President of Ukraine Viktor Mr. Yanukovych invited to Kazakhstan to build partnerships in the grain market. He also said that Ukraine is ready to build together with the Kazakh side (50/50) grain terminal in the Black Sea port. In turn, Mr. Nazarbayev supported the suggestion of his colleague. This proposal came as an opportune moment, because Kazakhstan has repeatedly stated its desire to buy (or build) a grain terminal in a port on the Black Sea for the transshipment of grain exports to North Africa and particularly in Egypt. Today, Egypt is a leading importer of wheat in the world, Kazakhstan is one of the main suppliers of grain in this country. Thus, in 2010, Kazakhstan plans to export up to 1.5 million tons of grain to Egypt. To build (or buy) a grain terminal in the seaport of Kazakhstan considers the two countries to Georgia and Ukraine. However, preference was always given to Ukraine, because capacity of Ukrainian ports can be shipped much more grain than the capacity of the Georgian ports. - What do the liquidity, inflation and the rate of refinancing. According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the amount of excess liquidity in the banking sector of Kazakhstan since the beginning of the year increased by KZT2 billion and was about $ 12mlrd. Most of these funds placed in short- term notes of NBK, which in circulation to date total KZT1.015 billion. This record level of accommodation notes. Also, decreases in inflationary pressures over the past two months. Analysts IFD "RESMI" believe that this trend stems from the fact that while money do not fall in the economy and ends up in the SS. However, this is a temporary phenomenon. Once the banks start to lend to the economy, it will be difficult to contain growth of both the economy and inflation. Additionally, merit the level of official refinancing rate, which remained stable at 7%, despite the fact that the inflation rate exceeds the third month in a row refinancing. Given the accumulated liquidity situation today, the banks do not need a credit NBK and the refinancing rate is not used, i.e. sense to increase it is not. On the other hand, increasing the refinancing rate of inflation targeting, will serve as a signal for a rate hike in general. Analysts IFD "RESMI" believe that it would be premature. In this regard, IFD "RESMI" believes that in the short term, the level of lending by banks of the second level will be a great guide for refinancing rate than inflation. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ------ Kazkommertsbak 365.01 796 25.4% 1,072 45.22 Halyk bank 363 409 12.7% 838 40.67 Bank Center Credit 735 1,218 65.7% 942 46.05 ENRC 2,800 On review 2,828 67.63 Kazakhmys 3,400 On review 3,569 53.94 RD KMG 22,201 24,895 12.1% 24,938 Kazkhtelekom 16,850 33,842 100.8% 17,800 40.76 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0%. - Cost of common shares Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; - Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of the bank's shares up to KZT409 per share; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in securities of the bank to the level of 1,230 m.; - Stocks Kazakhtelecom are looking most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying simple shareholders of the issuer. - The updated target price of shares of JSC Exploration Production KMG is KZT24,895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-04-09]