Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH RESMI (Kazakhstan) for March 11, 2010

/IRBIS, March 11, 2010/ - Finance & Investment House RESMI JSC (Almaty, IFH RESMI) provided IRBIS overview of major events and their investment ideas and projections for March 11, 2010. Analysts now paying attention to the following investors' significant events - Rate of economic recovery has exceeded expectations. Yesterday at the plenary session of the Majilis Parliament, Prime Minister Karim Massimov reported that, according to preliminary data, GDP growth in Kazakhstan in January-February 2010 amounted to 6-7%. Government of Kazakhstan predicted GDP growth for 2010 at 2%. According to analysts IFD "RESMI", the restoration of the national economy will be more confident than expected the Kazakh government. Given the gradual economic recovery, increased oil prices, the inflow of foreign capital and strengthen the national currency, analysts IFD "RESMI" believe that the GDP this year will grow more confident pace, if the external factors do not undergo correction. Also worth noting an insignificant rate - inflation. Since the beginning of the year, this figure has exceeded 7%, ie observed increase in purchasing power. In January inflation rate - 7.3% in February - 7.4%. Moreover, according to the common by the Statistics Agency of Kazakhstan, in February 2010 compared to the previous month, the selling price of new and resale landscaped and type of housing increased by 0.4%, and rental of comfortable decreased by 0.2%. Yesterday, deputy chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan D. Akishev noted several factors increase the rate of inflation. First, the establishment of the customs union could lead to an increase in customs duties on imported goods with a certain time lag, which may affect the growth of import prices. Secondly, the increase in 2010 wages of public sector employees, social benefits and pensions from the budget. Thirdly, to increase the level of inflation may also affect the revival of economic activity as a result of anti-crisis measures taken by the State, which will lead growth in demand. Finally, the "monetary overhang" created by the injections into the economy of the state, which is present in the accounts of National Bank, could pose a threat if the money in full will be made to credit. Thus, it becomes clear the reason for placing a record amount of short-term notes of National Bank for the past two months. In order to prevent the receipt of these funds in the economy, the National Bank through the issuance of short-term notes shall remove this "monetary overhang" and the funding costs for the purchase of currency. It remains an open question how long the National Bank plans to issue notes and remove "monetary overhang", and that is when it comes time to repay these notes. - Increased lending by Chinese banks. In February, the volume of lending by Chinese banks, the economy rose to 700.1 billion yuan (U.S. $ 102.5 billion), while the money supply M2 rose by 25.5%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Analysts expect lending volumes reach a level of 600 billion yuan, an increase in M2 money supply by 25%. Thus, credit growth associated with an increase in money supply. Also, industrial production over the past 2 months increased by 20.7% compared to the same period last year. He grew up and the consumer price index by 2.7% compared with February a year earlier. The index rose substantially to rising food prices, which increased by 6,2%, while the index of producer prices increased by 5,4%. Analysts IFD "RESMI" noted that the restoration of China's economy is at a higher rate than expected. Text is undoubtedly a positive factor for the stock markets. - Banks are growing on speculation in mergers and acquisitions. U.S. bank shares soared on Wednesday, amid statements by Barclays PLC, which he intends to carry out purchase a retail bank in the United States, which will enable the bank to increase the depository base and strengthen its presence at Barclays Capital in the United States. Barclays has made no public offer to any bank and did not negotiate and is not in the transaction. A similar statement was followed by Royal Bank of Canada, who is interested in an American bank with assets of $ 10 billion or more, to expand its business. Top gainers among the U.S. banks were Zions Bancorp (+7.5%), Regions Financials Corp (+7.5%) and SunTrust Banks Inc. (+4%) - With Cherkizovo buys two svinokopleksaza $ 100mln of its shareholder. In Open With Cherkizovo, one of the largest in the meat industry in Russia agribusiness companies, announced its intention to acquire two modern pig farm in Penza and the Lipetsk region, belonging to its main shareholder, Igor Babayev. It is assumed that the total transaction value will be at the level of $ 100 million, of which $ 20 million will be paid in cash, the remaining $ 80 million will go to pay off the debt of the two complexes. In the future, systems will not require additional capital investments, in addition to the cost of maintaining the current activities, because their construction finally completed. The deal is scheduled to close in the second half of 2010. Both pig were built from scratch: Penza was launched in 2008, Lipetsk - in early 2010. Their total production capacity is 12,500 tons / year of live weight. It is expected that total production of the two complexes is about 12,000 tonnes in live weight in 2010, by 2011 their total production will rise to 20,000 tonnes / year, and in 2012 systems will come to full capacity, with a combined production of 25,000 tonnes live weight. This will increase the productive capacity of the Group's segment of pigs by about 30%. Taken together, these pig farms, total production Cherkizovo exceed 100 thousand tons. Analysts of IFH RESMI give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Issuer Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 621.5 796 28.1% 1,261 48.82 Halyk bank 388 409 5.4% 1,006 64.21 Bank Center Credit 719 1,218 69.4% 989 42.04 ENRC 2,420 On review 2,632 56.70 Kazakhmys 3,300 On review 3,526 57.64 RD KMG 21,005 24,895 18.5% 26,512 43.59 Kazkhtelekom 17,016 33,842 98.9% n/a 32.58 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH RESMI for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0%. Cost of ordinary shares of Kazkommertsbank assessment IFD "RESMI" will cost no less than KZT796 per share by the end of 2010; Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan is estimated IFD "RESMI" as the most promising in terms of business development financial institution in Kazakhstan. Analysts see the growth of bank shares to KZT409 per share; Shares of Bank CenterCredit in the long term, analysts IFD "RESMI" about the outlook for growth in bank securities to a level 1,230 m.; Shares of Kazakhtelecom look the most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts IFD "RESMI" recommend buying ordinary shareholders of the issuer. JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas actively consolidating oil and gas sector in Kazakhstan through the purchase of oil assets. Exporting around 80% of its oil. Provision is 5% of the total volume of proven oil reserves in Kazakhstan. The updated target price is KZT24,895 per share. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-03-11]