Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for February 4, 2010

/IRBIS, February 4, 2010/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for February 4, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Yesterday's trading showed that the market is not ready for an extended rally. Uncertainty investors press on the market, which translates into increased daily, as well as weekly volatility. Today, we expect the weakening of the dynamics of the global sites. Speculation about a possible revision of the credit rating of the U.S. will press for auction. But increasingly the market will monitor the data on unemployment. Projections and primary data indicate a slowdown in unemployment. Another development on the other side of the ocean should be a meeting of the ECB, which is likely to be retained key rate (1%). In his speech, the head of the ECB, Trichet will touch the issue of weakness of the European economy and the problems of the Greek economy. The market can support corporate reporting MasterCard and Moody's. - On Feb. 4 majority of Kazakhstan's shares can end your day decline against the backdrop of a small correction of global indices. The market needs a confident news support for continued growth. The worst stock market may look raw companies. For them there is a significant arbitrage with respect to the GDR. - Quotations of oil are likely to continue the lateral movement on the eve of release of official data of the Ministry of Labor as the labor market in January. News background from South-East Asia and Europe today will add to the negative investor sentiment. In Australia and the EU recorded a decline of retail sales. Strengthening the dollar will be an additional factor of pressure on oil prices. - Expected continued strengthening of the dollar against the problems with budget deficits of the euro area small and slow recovery of growth in Southeast Asia will exert pressure on raw materials, including metals. However, the negative impact of this factor is mitigated by the release of positive data on the expected initial applications for unemployment benefits and industrial orders in the U.S., analysts say BTA Securities. - on February 4 analysts of BTA Securities expect the dollar strengthened against the backdrop of positive U.S. labor market and the decisions of the ECB rate. The British pound will weaken against the decision of the Bank of England monetary policy. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 8.9 5.5 Sell -38 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 660.0 410.0 Sell -38 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 280.5 205.0 Sell -27 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 10.2 7.9 Sell -22 HALYK BANK KASE 374.0 295.0 Sell -21 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 815.0 618.0 Sell -24 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.5 30.1 Buy +18 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 22,050.0 27,108.0 Buy +23 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.28 2.54 Buy +98 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,325.0 1,324.0 Hold 0 ENRC LSE 953.0 1,059.0 Hold +11 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.2 7.0 Hold -2 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.4 2.0 Sell -41 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,400.0 22,490.0 Buy +22 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.290 0.039 Sell -87 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 75.0 120.9 Buy +61 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-02-04]