Investment ideas by ASYL INVEST JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts' on January 27, 2010
27.01.10 12:00
/IRBIS, January 27, 2010/ - ASYL INVEST JSC (Almaty) provided an overview
of major events and their investment ideas and forecast to IRBIS on January 27,
2010.
According to the massage the analysts of ASYL INVEST expected at
international stock markets:
- Tendency before the today's auctions remains moderately negative. Gamble
that crediting in China will decrease continue to render pressure upon the
markets. The Chinese banks have already started to reduce delivery of new
loans in reply to possible increase of reserve requirements by the
government. The European share indexes have slightly grown yesterday. In
the USA share indexes showed growth in a current of day, however by the
end of session investors actively closed positions on the threshold of session
FRS today.
- Today the reporting for fourth quarter 2009 Canon, Caterpillar, Vedanta
Resources, Blackrock, Abbot Laboratories, SAP AG, Symantec, Boeing,
ConocoPhillips will be published.
- Among the published macroeconomic data it is necessary to allocate the
data about a habitation sales volume in the primary market of the USA for
December. Indicator growth is expected. The department of power of the
USA will publish the data on commercial stocks of oil, growth of stocks is
expected. Session FRS and the decision under the key interest rate will be
the central event of day at the auctions in the USA. Today also begins work
an economic forum in Davos.
- The Asian indexes show now minor alteration from 0.5 % to +0.5 %. The
nearest futures for oil of mark Brent bargain hardly above 73$/barr., marks
WTI nearby 74.6$/barr. Gold bargains a little above level in 1100$/tr.unts.,
silver - 16.9$/tr.unts., copper - 3.34$ / pound. Futures for the American
indexes show now growth within 0.2 %. Course EUR/USD - 1.4080,
GBP/USD - 1.6135.
- Today analysts of JSC ASYL INVEST expect that uncertainty in the markets
to remain. The outcome of the auctions in the USA will depend on decisions
and statements at session FRS the USA. The auctions in Europe, most
likely, will be different directions.
- Tendency before opening of the auctions at the Kazakhstan stock exchange
also remains moderately negative.
Analysts of JSC ASYL INVEST make following recommendations to
investors on share papers of JSC RazvedkaDobuchaKazMunaiGaz
(LSE:KMG, KASE:RDGZ): yesterday the company declared industrial results for
2009. The company (taking into account shares in Kazgermunaj and CCEL) in
2009 extracted 11.497 million tons of oil that on 3.8 % it is less, than in 2008
and on 1.15 % there is less than planned target. On the basic actives it has
been extracted 8.962 million tons that on 5.4 % more low, than in 2008 and on
2.0 % below a planned target. The emitter explains extraction decrease on the
basic actives heavy weather conditions in 1st quarter 2009 and faults in power
supply in 1st and 3 quarters. According to preliminary data the companies, in
2009 of RD КМГ without companies KazGerMunai and CCEL realized 8.966 million
tons of oil, including for export, 6,946 million tons. In the light of weaker
industrial indicators in 2009 and lowers the target price to $30.9/GDR (about 27
500 tenges for the action), the recommendation it is necessary to Buy increases
in capital expenses of JSC ASYL INVEST without changes. During the yesterday's
auctions, depositary company receipts decreased in the price to level of $25.8
and were closed on a mark of $26.10, having decreased for a day hardly more
than on 1 %. Current trading recommendations of JSC ASYL INVEST about
company papers remain without changes: to buy (to average positions) at level of
$25 (22 200 tenges) to sell (partially to fix profit) at level of $28 (25 000
tenges). Opening positions one prize (without possibility of averaging and
position escalating), it is recommended to establish relatives stopp-losy.
In the debt market of analytics of JSC ASYL INVEST recommend to
investors less tolerant to risk, to pay attention to coupon bonds
KZ2C0Y02D601 JSC АТFBank (ATFBb7, Profitableness - 9.24 %%, the dirty
price - 998.2222, the pure price - 98.0000 % from face value, the current
coupon rate - 8 %, on inflation, repayment date - 04.11.11). Analysts of JSC
ASYL INVEST consider attractive parameters of bonds, proceeding from a good
position of bank and concerning low risks of insolvency of the emitter. Also the
rise in prices of the given bonds in immediate prospects as they bargain at
attractive levels of profitableness, taking into account a good rating of the
given release (BBB) and the attractive coupon rate (minute value of 8 %,
maximum is not excluded, value of 13 %). According to the financial reporting
of bank for October, 01st, 2009, accounts and contributions of clients increased
more than twice from the beginning of year. So high growth of deposits is
connected with financial stability of Bank. In the financial reporting of the
emitter also it is possible to notice improvement of indicators of profitability
of bank and optimization of expenses. Trading recommendations of JSC ASYL
INVEST: to buy at profitableness of 9.5 % and to sell at profitableness of
7.5 %, or to hold before repayment.
The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or
the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis"
doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2010-01-27]