Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for January 21, 2010

/IRBIS, January 21, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for January 21, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - before the start of trading in Europe, the situation on the stock market looks mixed. At first glance, the positive statistics of China's GDP and retail sales should support the economic optimism of investors. China's economy in the 4 th quarter grew by 10.7%, slightly exceeding analysts' forecasts (10.5%). However, Asian markets will react negatively to the statistics on the background of speculation that the rapid economic growth of China will lead to further cuts in anti-crisis measures. Simultaneously, the World Bank said on maintaining the high risk of overheating the economy in the Asian region, as the rate of growth exceeds the rate of recovery the rest of the world. Against this background, it is not clear how the European market respond to the statistics. On the eve of the price of oil, metals and mining company shares fell on news that China is trying to restrain credit growth in the country. Accordingly sharply fallen in price by 3-6% shares may be attractive for purchase. American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported a decline of oil reserves in the United States. Petroleum slightly rises in price in morning trading, which may say that the bad news in China has already played. Some cause for optimism strong results eBay and Sturbacks, which today must unequivocally support the American market. Good reporting today should give the copper giant Freeport Mc.Moran, Goldman Sachs and Xerox. Statistics on the U.S. leading indicator (Leading Indicators) should also support share prices. As a result, analysts of BTA Securities now expect a moderate decline of markets in Europe and the rise of U.S. indices. - Analysts of BTA Securities expects that the Kazakhstan stock market investors will keep a cautious investment policy, focusing in more on the European market. Possible to fix the position on syrevikam. Individual shares of the banking sector may also show negative dynamics. As a security tool today can grow up shares KazakhTelecom. - Quotations of oil struck the level of $ 78 per background prevailed "bear" the news from the banking sector in China. Data API oil reserves provide some hope for recovery, but the final word today say the data DOE, which is expected to increase stockpiles last week. Support for commodity markets can have a positive GDP data in China, published today, and the expected weakening of the dollar. - Released yesterday after trading in New York and London, data on key macro-indicators of China, the growth of which was the highest since 2007, led to the opening of trading in Asia in the negative zone on speculation about the tightening of monetary policy by Chinese regulators. Trading Dynamics on the western sites may be more moderate due to the fact that speculation had already been marked mostly played by market participants during yesterday's session. As a result, analysts BTA Securities also suggest that in the steel sector now can moderate the positive dynamics, including those on shares of Kazakh issuers that have fallen in price on the eve of more than 5%. - Jan. 21 is expected weakening of the dollar after two days building. Against the U.S. currency could play the expected negative data on unemployment. Analysts BTA Securities predicted the weakening pound against the backdrop of increasing the money supply UK. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.6 5.5 Sell -42 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 690.0 410.0 Sell -41 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 308.0 205.0 Sell -33 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 10.0 7.9 Sell -21 HALYK BANK KASE 372.0 295.0 Sell -21 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 790.5 618.0 Sell -22 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 27.0 30.1 Hold +12 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 23,221.0 27,108.0 Buy +17 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.29 2.54 Buy +97 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,362.0 1,324.0 Hold -3 ENRC LSE 962.5 1,059.0 Hold +10 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.6 7.0 Hold -8 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.5 2.0 Sell -42 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,799.0 22,490.0 Hold +14 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.250 0.039 Sell -84 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 79.0 120.9 Buy +53 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-01-21]