Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for January 13, 2010

/IRBIS, January 13, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for January 13, 2010. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: Today, investors will continue to record profits for shares in the failed early in the season of corporate accountability, as well as the Central Bank of China raising reserve requirements for banks to curb lending rate of the economy. The main pressure on the market will have shares of commodity companies, under pressure from falling prices for metals and oil. In morning trading "black gold" cheaper by almost 1%, bargaining at levels slightly below $ 80 a barrel. It's in response to news from China and the discouraging data of API, for oil and petroleum products. The Agency expected crude oil inventories in the U.S. last week rose. The Final price of oil will determine the U.S. government data. If confirmed, predictions on stocks of fuel, oil prices can go in the positive zone. Support for market shares may have a purchase of shares on local minima before the release of financial results of Intel on Thursday. Technical analysis indicates a decrease in quotations of the main indexes in Europe and the United States today. Analysts of BTA Securities believes that the markets went negative sentiment. Today, they expect lower stock price of Kazakh issuers. Increasing the proportion of reserve requirements in China indirectly exert pressure on shares of Kazakh issuers. It is expected that the vast majority of players will capture the profit on the shares of metallurgical companies. Shares Kazakhmys today may show a significant decline. In the morning, analysts BTA Securities expect the negative dynamics of oil prices in response to the API data is not comforting for oil and petroleum products in the United States, showing their growth in the previous week. Aggregate price dynamics will be determined by the statistics is U.S. Department of Energy. According to the forecasts of economists crude oil inventories rose last week by 1.5 million barrels. And stocks of diesel fuel may have decreased on 1.3 million barrels. Negative background of China, most likely, will now determine the dynamics in the metals market. This, coupled with the expected further strengthening of the dollar today, will lead to the continuation of negative dynamics in the sector, which correspondingly impact on share prices Kazakhmys and ENRC. Jan. 13 is expected to strengthen the dollar against the backdrop of positive on Fed's Beige Book USA. Analysts BTA Securities forecast strengthening British pound against the backdrop of positive industrial production in the UK. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.7 5.5 Sell -43 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 690.0 410.0 Sell -41 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 270.0 205.0 Sell -24 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.7 7.9 Sell -18 HALYK BANK KASE 350.9 295.0 Sell -16 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 746.0 618.0 Sell -17 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 27.0 30.1 Hold +12 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 23,800.0 27,108.0 Hold +14 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.30 2.54 Buy +95 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,435.0 1,324.0 Hold -8 ENRC LSE 991.0 1,059.0 Hold +7 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.48 n.a. review n.a. KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.0 7.0 Hold -12 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.3 2.0 Sell -38 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,100.0 22,490.0 Buy +18 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.270 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 69.0 120.9 Buy +75 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-01-13]