Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for January 5, 2010

/IRBIS, January 5, 2010/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for January 5, 2010. - on Tuesday on the wave of economic optimism of market participants the major indices in Europe and the U.S. can continue the positive dynamics. Key indicators of stock market and commodity markets show clear signs of growing "bullish" sentiment and has traded above the psychological marks. So S & P500 index traded at 1% above the resistance level at around 1,121.44 points, which could not be overcome with the month of November. Oil prices broke otmutku $ 80 per barrel. That could signal a further improvement. The demand for risky assets with increased economic growth once again revived, that puts pressure on the U.S. dollar. For the first time in the past few weeks, the dollar weakened yesterday on the positive macroeconomic data for the United States. Today, it is likely further weakening of expectations of positive U.S. data on industrial orders for the month of December and the statements of the IMF's plans to improve predictions of global economic growth in 2010, as IMF's view the measures of governments to stimulate national economies have been successful. This can positively affect the dynamics of prices of metals and oil, as well as the stock market. However, the increase will be more moderate than the previous day. On the dynamics of the market will also affect the U.S. data on the number of contracts awarded for housing purchase in the secondary market, where the expected negative dynamics and forecasts API on the dynamics of oil last week. The last three weeks there was a reduction of oil and gasoline in the U.S., which contributed to the restoration of the price of "black gold". - Today, analysts of BTA Securities do not expect activity on the Kazakhstan market shares. There may be buyers for shares of commodity companies and the national telecom operator, after rising oil prices on Monday and reach the shares of Kazakhtelecom attractive for purchase level. - Today, quotes of oil may continue to rally against the background of data on vehicle sales in December, and oil reserves under the version of API. Corporate reporting season is approaching, and already next week on January 11 will publish its reporting Alcoa. The rapid growth of China's GDP and strong signs of recovery in the U.S. economy should find a positive reflection of corporate accountability for the 4 quarter, resulting in the stock market, likely to see a rally in the coming weeks. This week's quotes will show the vibrational dynamics in the region of $ 80, with the possible achievement of the mark in the $ 85 - $ 87 at the corporate season. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect continued growth in the metallurgical sector, but more moderate pace, the positive sentiment, steady on the stock and commodity markets. Height of base metals will be partially neutralized by the news of an agreement between unions and the administration of the two copper mines in Chile. Expected today positive data on industrial orders in the U.S. will likely further weaken dollar. As a result, today we can expect a moderate positive trend in the papers Kazakhmys and ENRC. - January 5, expected weakening of the dollar against the backdrop of positive relative to the U.S. Factory Orders. Analysts of BTA Securities forecast strengthening British pound against the background of the relative positive for PMI Construction UK. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.1 5.5 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 665.0 410.0 Sell -38 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 263.0 205.0 Sell -22 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.5 7.9 Sell -17 HALYK BANK KASE 328.0 295.0 Hold -10 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 170.0 147.0 Hold -14 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 756.0 618.0 Sell -18 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 26.3 30.1 Hold +14 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 22,400.0 27,108.0 Buy +21 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.16 2.54 Buy +119 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,379.0 1,324.0 Hold -4 ENRC LSE 960.0 1,059.0 Hold +10 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.52 1.30 Buy +150 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.5 7.0 Hold -6 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 Sell -32 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 17,300.0 22,490.0 Buy +30 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.270 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 63.8 120.9 Buy +90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2010-01-05]