Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for Dcember 23, 2009

/IRBIS, December 23, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for December 23, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today's global stock market has a definite chance to further enhance the growth of economic optimism of investors. Today the market will wait for favorable U.S. data on personal spending and income Americans, sales of new homes and consumer confidence index, calculated by the University of Michigan. By all accounts, economists expect the positive trend that is likely to contribute to the indices in morning trading in Europe. Are encouraging yesterday looked API data on stocks of oil and gasoline in the United States. According to the agency industry stocks of crude oil last week fell to 3.71 million barrels. And gasoline at 1.1 million barrels. Positive dynamics of oil futures in the first half of the day will also support the stock market in Europe. The resulting dynamics of the market, both Europe and the United States, in the case of positive macro-statistics and government data on U.S. oil reserves will be moderately positive. Positive macro-data will likely lead to further depreciation of the euro / dollar to a mark in 1.4197-1.4200. Technical analysis indicates an increase in major indices today. - Analysts of BTA Securities expect that the Kazakh stock market today closed in the positive territory. By the beginning of the day formed a favorable external news background. The positive dynamics of stock price of commodity companies. - In the banking sector in Kazakhstan, there are signs of fixation of profits, analysts said BTA Securities. In the absence of positive news for the sector does not exclude the continuation of the negative dynamics of stock price and the GDR domestic banks in the near future. Depositary receipts showing a decrease for the second consecutive day. - Unexpectedly turned out to be positive data API oil reserves the United States that, together with a statement of fact the demand for gasoline according to MasterCard in the past two weeks demonstrates the positive trends in the sector, partly due to seasonal factors and partly to improvements in the economy. From current data on oil reserves under the version of U.S. Department of Energy analysts BTA Securities expect less than the version of the API, but, nevertheless, the reduction of oil and gasoline, resulting in the dynamics of quotations of oil today would be positive. - Tendency to strengthen the dollar against the euro from entering the positive data is likely to remain in the coming days. This, combined with the large inventory of copper in warehouses, apparently, will become a factor of pressure on the quotes of base metals. As analysts expect BTA Securities, quotes Kazakhmys are now under pressure cheapening of copper in the first half of the day. Data on sales of new homes in the U.S., if positive, can deploy quotations copper top. - Dec. 23 is expected to strengthen against the dollar on positive U.S. personal income. Analysts BTA Securities predict technical weakening British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.0 5.5 Sell -39 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 630.0 410.0 Sell -35 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 260.0 205.0 Sell -21 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.7 7.9 Hold -9 HALYK BANK KASE 321.5 295.0 Hold -8 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 176.0 147.0 Sell -16 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 770.0 618.0 Sell -20 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.8 30.1 Buy +21 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,500.0 27,108.0 Buy +26 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.30 2.54 Buy +95 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,246.0 1,324.0 Hold +6 ENRC LSE 868.0 1,059.0 Buy +22 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.46 1.30 Buy +183 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.7 7.0 Hold -9 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.9 2.0 Sell -30 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,600.0 22,490.0 Buy +21 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.280 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 63.5 120.9 Buy +90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-23]