Current account deficit of balance of payments in Kazakhstan in 2009 will amount to no more than 3.0% of GDP - National Bank of Kazakhstan

/IRBIS, December 14, 09/ - According to preliminary estimates, the current account balance of payments in Kazakhstan in 2009, projected a deficit not exceeding 3% of GDP in 2010, with a surplus of 1% of GDP, - stated in a published report by the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan on financial stability of Kazakhstan in 2009 today. "The trade balance in 2009-2010 will be about 13-15% of the GDP. This fundamental change in exports and imports in 2010 will take place largely at the expense of quantity, but due to price factor," - stated in the report. National Bank notes that the most likely scenario for the dynamics of balance of payments for 2009 is designed to reflect the continuation of current year oil prices at $ 60 a barrel and forecast for 2010 - taking into account the average world oil price of $ 70 per barrel and real GDP growth on 4%. According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the financial account was formed in 2009 with a surplus of over $ 5 billion, which "will finance the current deficit and meet the needs of banks in foreign currency" in 2010 - a deficit of $ 0.4 billion Main factors of the financial account deficit in 2010 could be: - a significant reduction in foreign direct investment, mainly due to cuts in funding for the North-Caspian project, which comes at the peak in 2009; - increase the net outflow in 2010 on portfolio investments in connection with the growth in receipts for the National Fund of Kazakhstan and the lack of seizures with the exception of upcoming guaranteed transfers; - a possible way out of individual banks in the Eurobond market and the involvement of other long-term investment that will ensure the inflow of capital into the banking sector and will override the repayment of previously issued securities. As a result, is projected that the overall balance of payments in 2009 emerged with a surplus of about 2.1% of GDP in 2010 - with a surplus of 0.7-1% of GDP. It is expected that in 2010 a growth of international reserves of National Bank of Kazakhstan will be more moderate and at the end of next year, their volume will be "sufficient to cover at least 6.2 months of imports of goods and services". Forecasts of global demand against the backdrop of reviving the global economy, is enough, for making of realistic assessment on the conservation of the current level of oil prices in 2010. Accordingly, the risk of worsening balance of payments due to the influence of world prices is assessed as low, but it can not be completely excluded and overlooked", - stated in report. National Bank pointed out that under the realization of scenario oil prices of $ 50 per barrel in 2010 the current account will be about 3% of GDP by reducing the trade surplus up 10% of the GDP. [2009-12-14]