Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for Dcember 11, 2009

/IRBIS, December 11, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for December 11, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today analysts BTA Securities expect to see increasing market shares in Europe in the first half of the day in response to the strong macro-economic statistics for China. First it should be noted strong growth of imports in this country (26.7%) exceeded the forecasts of economists. Strong momentum in the past month showed industrial production and the Celestial Empire, rising to 19.2% in annual comparison. The volume of credit to the economy of this country rose to 294.8 billion yuan, exceeding forecasts for 44.8 billion given statistics is positive for price of oil and metals and commodity companies, respectively. Oil prices are now able to move away from dangerous levels in morning trading to a significant increase is observed. In the afternoon, will be published no less important data on U.S. retail sales for November and the consumer confidence index, calculated by the University of Michigan. Both figures reflect the situation in the consumer sector of U.S., so their influence on the dynamics of prices of "black gold" and the stock market will be determinative. By both measures, is expected to improve the dynamics. Increased stock market should have a positive impact on the dynamics of the euro / dollar. Dynamics of futures for the major indices and technical analysis indicates an increase in the stock market today. - Analysts of BTA Securities expected to increase the Kazakh market shares for the encouraging data on the Chinese economy. Good momentum today may show the first rally of commodity companies. At current levels it is recommended to fix the position on the shares of banks, because growth potential has been exhausted, and no drivers for growth. Favorable macroeconomic situation in China can expect a better momentum stock commodity companies. Analysts BTA Securities recommends buying shares of ENRC and RD Kazmunaigaz with potential growth of more than 20%. - Today, stock quotes, Kazakh banks are likely to be under pressure from negative views of rating agency S&P about the prospects for the sector. Supporting quotes will improve the situation on foreign markets and the growth of depositary receipts of banks before. - published data on the import of China, has once again surpassed expectations, this will serve as a powerful impetus to the trend reversal in the oil upward. Data on retail sales and consumer confidence in the U.S. in November promises to be positive, which will also support quotations of oil today. - publication of strong data on industrial production and retail sales in China should be a factor in support for the sector of industry. Additional positive in the sector need to bring data on the growth of Chinese imports on November 26.7% in annual terms, and publication of the preliminary Michigan sentiment index values in the United States, which is expected to increase. All this allows expecting a weakening of U.S. currency, which will allow industry, including Kazakhstan, to complete a week of positive dynamics. - Dec. 11 is expected weakening of the dollar against the euro on positive U.S. Advance Retail Sales and the growth of industrial production in China. Analysts BTA Securities predict technical strengthening British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.1 5.5 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 680.0 410.0 Sell -40 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 285.0 205.0 Sell -28 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.2 7.9 Hold -4 HALYK BANK KASE 315.0 295.0 Hold -6 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 176.0 147.0 Sell -16 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 176.3 191.0 Hold +8 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 750.0 618.0 Sell -18 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.2 30.1 Buy +24 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,600.0 27,108.0 Buy +26 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.02 2.54 Buy +149 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,226.0 1,324.0 Hold +8 ENRC LSE 875.0 1,059.0 Buy +21 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.56 0.30 Buy +132 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.9 7.0 Hold -10 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.1 2.0 Sell -34 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,199.0 22,490.0 Buy +17 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.290 0.039 Sell -87 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 67.0 120.9 Buy +80 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-11]