Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of IFH "RESMI" (Kazakhstan) for December 8, 2009

/IRBIS, December 8, 09/ - Finance and Investment House "RESMI" has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for December 8, 2009. Analysts now paying attention to the following investors' significant events: - Review of international reserves and National Fund assets at the beginning of December 2009. At the beginning of December the assets of the National Fund of Kazakhstan amounted to $ 24 244 million, which is 2.19% higher than the previous month. Fall to the beginning of the year amounted to 11,8%. According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, a record decrease in assets occurred in the month of February this year and amounted to more than 20%, which was associated with the devaluation of the currency. In the following months there was gradual recovery of assets by the monthly growth rate of 1-2%. Net international reserves at the beginning of the month grew by 14% and amounted to KTZ 3,460 billion. From the beginning, the reserves increased by 44.3%. - Kazakhstan's companies will reduce the attraction of capital on the London stock exchanges in favor of the Asian sites. Head of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Mr. Grigory Marchenko said in an interview published on December 7 by The Financial Times, that the Kazakhstan's companies will no longer give preference to London when selecting sites for placement of securities and will be transferred to Asia in order to diversify. Head of the Central Bank also noted that if local companies had attracted 90% of funds in London, but now this figure should be reduced to 50%. Talking about the Asian markets is likely to head the Central Bank talked about China, with which Kazakhstan had significantly increased cooperation with the beginning of the year. Analysts of IFH "RESMI" suggest that this statement will be declared and formalized during the visit of Chinese President in Kazakhstan at the end of the week. - JSC Bank CenterCredit announced additional conditions issue of shares. As reported earlier Bank CenterCredit in increasing the share of Kookmin Bank to 40.1% and 12.5% to the IFC will hold additional issue of shares. Issue of ordinary shares will amount to 17,976,269 pieces and preferred convertible into common shares - 39,249,255 pieces. Price of ordinary and preference shares on KTZ 300. Thus, involvement in the capital, with full deployment will be KTZ 17.17 billion or USD 115 million. In accordance with the announced terms of the issue, we adjust the predicted value of 1 down to a simple action in 1,230 at the end of 2010. - New bonds in the domestic market of corporate borrowing: Vostokmashzavod JSC. According to the KASE from Dec. 8, 2009 in Gaza KASE secondary market trades in bonds KZ2C0Y05D638 (VMZVb1; KTZ 10,000; KTZ 2.0 billion; term treatment of 26.11.09 to 26.11.14, the annual coupon is 14.00% pa 30/360). Activities of the issuer are in the following areas: mining and railway engineering. Currently, the Issuer commenced negotiations with the Chinese company Kingdream (which is the world's leading manufacturer of drilling tools, and covers about 35% of the world market of these products) to establish a joint venture to manufacture oil drilling bits. A recommendation IFH of "RESMI" make in case of investment attractiveness of the Issuer, after the analysis. Analysts of IFH "RESMI" give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Last price Predicted price* Up/down from Target RSI, Issuer Current price price** %*** ------------------ ---------- ---------------- ------------- ------- ----- Kazkommertsbak 678 912 +32.6,% 1,096 59.45 Halyk bank 335 On review 1,118 65.01 Bank Center Credit 840 1,230 +46.4,% 878 64.62 ENRC 2,216 On review 2,564 49.56 Kazakhmys 3,200 On review 3,409 56.21 RD KMG 21,900 On review 5,011 52.25 Kazkhtelekom 18,501 33,842 +82.9,% 22,095 43.70 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fundamental evaluation IFH "RESMI" for 12 months (weekly review) ** Target according to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg *** Relative strength index - an indicator of technical analysis. determines strength of trend and likelihood of change. Overbought / oversold - when RSI indicator value is closer to 100% / 0% - Cost of ordinary shares of Kazkommertsbank by assessment of IFH "RESMI" will cost no less than KTZ 912 per share. Current levels are the same (P / E and P / BV) show the "overheated" market and in the short term correction; - Shares of Bank CenterCredit remain the most overbought from domestic blue chips. Correction is likely to continue, but in the long term, analysts of IFH "RESMI" about the outlook for growth of securities to the level of KTZ 1,230 m; - Shares of Kazakhtelecom look the most attractive for investment in the long term. Analysts of IFH "RESMI" believe that the potential for growth compared with the current price of 77.6% and recommend buying these shares. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-12-08]