Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 24, 2009

/IRBIS, November 24, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for November 24, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - on Tuesday dynamics of the market shares will be restrained before the release of macroeconomic data on the U.S. On Monday, the market once again went to the psychological mark on the main indicators. SnP500 stabilized at just above 1 100 points, the euro / dollar - at level close to 1.5, and the price of oil - at $ 78 a barrel, not even close to the critical $ 80. To overcome these markers market needed more powerful drivers than the data on the real estate market. Today the market goes statistics on GDP and private consumption in annual terms. Although the statistics is significant, it is unlikely to greatly affect market, because investors are now more concerned about the situation in the consumer sector, the improvement which can be made only operational data on oil reserves, and unemployment. The key for the market today, most likely figures for the consumer confidence index, calculated by the agency The Conferece Board. As it expected a slight decline from 47.7 to 47.5 points. Analysts BTA Securities does not exclude the negative data due to the slow labor market recovery in the United States. Technical analysis suggests a possible reduction of most major indexes in Europe and the United States today. - Today the domestic stock market may show a more moderate growth. Securities of KMG EP and Kazakhmys may show growth by reducing the arbitration LSE. Restrained growth dynamics will be observed on the shares of banks and Kazakhtelecom. - Recently, trends in stock price and the GDR of Kazakh banks largely determined by the movement of foreign markets, confirmed yesterday that their growth. Today the global market could fall back on the progress markers, which could lead to lower stock price and the GDR domestic banks. - In the first half of the day dynamics of quotations of oil will be positive on the background of positive data on an index of business confidence in Germany and France in November. This will support the growth of quotations of domestic oil companies, depository receipts are traded on European exchanges. However, the breaking of the trend of oil may occur with the opening of U.S. stock exchanges and the release of data on consumer confidence for November, which according to preliminary estimates of experts, continued to decline this month. An hour before the close of trading data on U.S. oil reserves will exited under the version of API, which will probably show the growth of oil and gasoline, which would further pressure on the quotation. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect the correction in the quotation of metals as their active growth observed in recent times was due to increased interest in it by the financial sector in the absence of fundamental factors of growth. Correction in the sector will also contribute to the dollar, which will now be strengthened. Quotes of Kazakhmys and ENRC are expected to go down after the whole sector today. - November 24 is expected to strengthen the dollar against the euro on the background of the negative on the U.S. Consumer Confidence. Analysts of BTA Securities predicting technical weakening of British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.3 5.5 Sell -41 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 691.0 410.0 Sell -41 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 310.0 205.0 Sell -34 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.5 7.9 Hold -7 HALYK BANK KASE 319.0 295.0 Hold -8 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 188.0 191.0 Hold +2 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 809.0 735.0 Hold -9 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.7 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,500.0 n.a. On review n.a. BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.06 2.54 Buy +140 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,320.0 1,324.0 Hold 0 ENRC LSE 883.0 824.0 Hold -7 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.09 0.13 Buy +53 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.0 7.0 Hold -12 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.2 2.0 Sell -36 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,000.0 22,490.0 Buy +18 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.300 0.039 Sell -87 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 62.5 120.9 Buy +93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-11-24]