Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 20, 2009

/IRBIS, November 20, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for November 20, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today, stock market may continue the negative dynamics against a background of negative news on the corporate sector in Europe and the United States and concerns about the justification for the recent rise in the market. In the U.S., yesterday reported weak computer manufacturer Dell. In Europe, Deutshce Bank threatens to downgrade. Semiconductor manufacturer Infineon Technologies AG plans to acquire in the next year by issuing new shares and bonds, as long as investors do not like. Significant macroeconomic developments in both regions today are not expected. Oil prices will likely continue to decline on weak dynamic stock market and evidence of weak demand for fuel. Technical analysis indicates a reduction in the stock market on Friday. Quotations of futures on the major indices in Europe and the U.S. are also not encouraging. - Analysts of BTA Securities believe that today in the Kazakh market will dominate sales. Investors will seek to fix the position of bank securities. In addition, formed a noticeable arbitration with LSE on Kazkommertsbank, National Bank and Kazakhmys. It is possible that investors now will build positions in the securities of Kazakhtelecom. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect another decline of stock price and the GDR of Kazakhstan banks due to fixation of the profits on them after an excessive increase in the past two weeks, and uncertainty in global markets. Equity instruments are all covered by the BTA Securities banks on current levels adequately evaluated or traded significantly above fair levels, so it is recommended to record profits and refrain from further purchases in the sector in the near future. - Analysts of BTA Securities believe that this fixation of profits for oil contracts will continue against the background of the expected strengthening of the dollar. Quotations of WTI oil on Thursday closed lower Brent oil price, which may indicate the desire of American traders to play for a fall. With regard to sort and long positions, it is now the opinion of players equally divided with a small margin in the direction of the bears. - Today, expected to continue correction in the sector due to the further strengthening of the dollar. However, the risk of reducing the supply of copper from South America will support the quotations of copper and other base metals. As a result, can expect a limited decline. On Kazakhmys and ENRC' shares today, also expected to moderate the negative picture with the possibility of a slight decline. - November 20, is expected to strengthen the dollar against the euro against the negative dynamics of the market shares. Analysts of BTA Securities predict technical weakening of British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 9.1 5.5 Sell -39 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 695.0 410.0 Sell -41 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 341.0 205.0 Sell -40 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.2 7.9 Hold -4 HALYK BANK KASE 318.0 295.0 Hold -7 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 188.1 191.0 Hold +2 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 740.0 735.0 Hold -1 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.2 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 22,380.0 n.a. On review n.a. BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.08 2.54 Buy +135 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,273.0 1,324.0 Hold +4 ENRC LSE 868.5 824.0 Hold -5 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.08 0.13 Buy +63 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.1 7.0 Hold -13 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.3 2.0 Sell -39 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,400.0 22,490.0 Buy +22 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.320 0.039 Sell -88 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 65.0 120.9 Buy +86 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-11-20]