Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 26, 2009

26.10.09 17:08
/IRBIS, October 26, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for October 26, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - trades in Europe and the U.S. by tradition of the past few weeks may terminate the growth of the major indexes. Correction on markets last week may become a stimulus for further purchases of shares cheapened. Next week will again be rich in corporate events. Today in the United States accountable to the company's technology sector Verizon Communications and Corning, in Europe pharmacist Merck. From the macro-statistical data will be available on an index of business activity Dallas Fed Manf. Activity and Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, where the expected positive results. The euro / dollar in morning trading shows a significant increase (+0.1%), which may have a positive impact on the prices of oil and metals. Dynamics of futures for the major indices shows the growth of U.S. and selected European indices today. Technical analysis gives the signal down. Asian indices traded in positive territory thanks to positive news from Japanese automakers, and most significantly in the last 7 years, GDP growth in South Korea in the third quarter. - dynamics of the Kazakh market shares will depend on the dynamics of foreign markets, which so far promises to be positive. Moreover, analysts BTA Securities sees reason to further increase the shares of domestic banks, due to improvements in the dynamics of problem loans. - stabilization of problem loans of the leading banks in the country - good news for stocks, because gives hope for a significant increase in profits next year. Analysts will take into account this factor in the revaluation of shares Halyk Bank and Bank of BCC. Moreover, also decided to review the recommendation on shares of Kazkommertsbank. - Today oil quotations show a moderately positive dynamics after a two- day correction. The fundamental background of oil is still quite good, the last two weeks, U.S. gasoline inventories show decline this week, possibly continuing the trend in the closure of several refineries for repair. Support for shares of the oil sector will have the expected positive reports Chevron, Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhilips this week. From the perspective of technical analysis, quotes have the potential for further growth, as oil has broken an important resistance level at $ 76. The next resistance level at $ 83.6, and if the quotes and strikes it, you can move up to $ 89.8. Fundamentally, the U.S. oil reserves declined by 10% since March this year, but are above average, gasoline consumption shows the unstable dynamics. - Today, the dynamics of metals is likely to be weak. Quotes for gold will continue to rise against the background of the expected weakening of the dollar today. Last week the results of most retail companies in the U.S. surpassed analysts' expectations of profits due to higher sales than expected. This gives investors reason to believe that consumer demand in the U.S. in the third quarter was stronger than previously estimated. Data on construction of new homes and second home sales were also above expectations. This week went quarterly data on U.S. GDP, which is expected to grow by 3.2% for the first time since the second quarter of 2008. These data, coupled with signs of recovery in consumer demand and the U.S. construction sector - the most cyclical sectors of the economy may strengthen in the minds of investors' feelings about the end of the recession and early recovery of the economy, which will have good support for metals in the third quarter. Data on China's GDP growth for the third quarter to 8.9% indicate that annual growth could exceed 8% projected earlier, also in the medium term will support the sector. - on Oct. 26, is expected weakening of the dollar against to the euro on the background of positive to Dallas Fed Manf. Activity United States. Analysts of BTA Securities predict technical weakening of British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE n.a. 4.9 On review n.a. KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 231.0 183.8 To sell -20 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.5 n.a. On review n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE n.a. 93.0 n.a. n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a. BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 587.5 n.a. On review n.a. -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.6 23.2 To hold -9 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.15 2.01 To sell +75 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,294.0 1,324.0 To hold +2 ENRC LSE 944.5 824.0 To hold -13 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.06 0.13 To buy +136 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.4 7.0 To sell -16 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 To sell -32 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 22,500.0 25,093.0 To hold +12 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.290 0.039 To sell -87 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 71.5 120.9 To buy +69 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- - the recommendation on the shares and GDRs of Halyk Bank, Bank of BCC and Kazkommertsbank to revision due to change our view of the dynamics of the main factors of their value in the future. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-10-26]