Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 26, 2009
26.10.09 17:08
/IRBIS, October 26, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA
Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events,
Forecasts and Investment ideas for October 26, 2009.
According to the report, the company analysts expect today:
- trades in Europe and the U.S. by tradition of the past few weeks may
terminate the growth of the major indexes. Correction on markets last
week may become a stimulus for further purchases of shares cheapened.
Next week will again be rich in corporate events. Today in the United
States accountable to the company's technology sector Verizon
Communications and Corning, in Europe pharmacist Merck. From the
macro-statistical data will be available on an index of business activity
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity and Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, where the
expected positive results. The euro / dollar in morning trading shows a
significant increase (+0.1%), which may have a positive impact on the
prices of oil and metals. Dynamics of futures for the major indices shows
the growth of U.S. and selected European indices today. Technical
analysis gives the signal down. Asian indices traded in positive territory
thanks to positive news from Japanese automakers, and most significantly
in the last 7 years, GDP growth in South Korea in the third quarter.
- dynamics of the Kazakh market shares will depend on the dynamics
of foreign markets, which so far promises to be positive. Moreover,
analysts BTA Securities sees reason to further increase the shares of
domestic banks, due to improvements in the dynamics of problem loans.
- stabilization of problem loans of the leading banks in the country -
good news for stocks, because gives hope for a significant increase in
profits next year. Analysts will take into account this factor in the
revaluation of shares Halyk Bank and Bank of BCC. Moreover, also
decided to review the recommendation on shares of Kazkommertsbank.
- Today oil quotations show a moderately positive dynamics after a two-
day correction. The fundamental background of oil is still quite good, the
last two weeks, U.S. gasoline inventories show decline this week, possibly
continuing the trend in the closure of several refineries for repair. Support
for shares of the oil sector will have the expected positive reports Chevron,
Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhilips this week. From the perspective of
technical analysis, quotes have the potential for further growth, as oil has
broken an important resistance level at $ 76. The next resistance level at $
83.6, and if the quotes and strikes it, you can move up to $ 89.8.
Fundamentally, the U.S. oil reserves declined by 10% since March this
year, but are above average, gasoline consumption shows the unstable
dynamics.
- Today, the dynamics of metals is likely to be weak. Quotes for gold will
continue to rise against the background of the expected weakening of the
dollar today. Last week the results of most retail companies in the U.S.
surpassed analysts' expectations of profits due to higher sales than
expected. This gives investors reason to believe that consumer demand in
the U.S. in the third quarter was stronger than previously estimated. Data
on construction of new homes and second home sales were also above
expectations. This week went quarterly data on U.S. GDP, which is
expected to grow by 3.2% for the first time since the second quarter of
2008. These data, coupled with signs of recovery in consumer demand and
the U.S. construction sector - the most cyclical sectors of the economy may
strengthen in the minds of investors' feelings about the end of the
recession and early recovery of the economy, which will have good support
for metals in the third quarter. Data on China's GDP growth for the third
quarter to 8.9% indicate that annual growth could exceed 8% projected
earlier, also in the medium term will support the sector.
- on Oct. 26, is expected weakening of the dollar against to the euro on
the background of positive to Dallas Fed Manf. Activity United States.
Analysts of BTA Securities predict technical weakening of British pound.
Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in
securities of issuers in Kazakhstan:
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Stock Final Target price Recom Potential
Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent
ange
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Banks
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KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE n.a. 4.9 On review n.a.
KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 231.0 183.8 To sell -20
HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.5 n.a. On review n.a.
HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE n.a. 93.0 n.a. n.a.
HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a.
BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 587.5 n.a. On review n.a.
-------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- ---------
Oil and Gaz:
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KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.6 23.2 To hold -9
BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.15 2.01 To sell +75
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Metallurgy:
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KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,294.0 1,324.0 To hold +2
ENRC LSE 944.5 824.0 To hold -13
ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.06 0.13 To buy +136
KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.4 7.0 To sell -16
URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 To sell -32
-------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- ---------
Companies with small capital:
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KAZAKTELECOM KASE 22,500.0 25,093.0 To hold +12
KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.290 0.039 To sell -87
STEPPE CEMENT LSE 71.5 120.9 To buy +69
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- the recommendation on the shares and GDRs of Halyk Bank, Bank of
BCC and Kazkommertsbank to revision due to change our view of the
dynamics of the main factors of their value in the future.
The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer
or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis
doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2009-10-26]