Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 20, 2009

/IRBIS, October 20, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for October 20, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Prevailing optimism in external markets is once again will lead up the major indices in Europe and the USA. This is confirmed by a significant increase in futures, especially at European indexes and index NASDAQ. Last day, most likely, will increase significantly after Apple and Texas Instruments posted strong financial results for the third quarter after the close of trading in the U.S.. Share prices of both companies at the regular auctions soared by 6.1% and 2.3% respectively. Technical analysis also confirms the "bullish" sentiment in the market, which today will lead to the next raise of the euro / dollar and higher commodity prices, at least in the first half day of trading in Europe. Before and during the first hours trading in the U.S. come out the financial results of companies Coca-Cola, Pfizer Inc, United Technologies Corp, M & T Bank Corp, and Caterpillar. Investors also will be waiting for positive data on the real estate market (Housing Starts and Building Permits). Analysts BTA Securities believes that trends in the corporate sector remain. Since October 7, many as 34 companies from 41 th-reporting (or 83%) posted better-than-expected results on the net profit. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities are looking at the Kazakhstan market with a positive point of view. This is a good external news background and increase investor confidence. In particular, the expected growth of quotations of commodity companies after grown up prices for oil and metals. - In conditions of market share growing, analysts of BTA Securities recommended investors to pay attention to underestimated tools sector, namely, shares of Bank Center Credit. Market valuation of bank shares shows a significant lag from the markets that do not fit into the overall picture of the fundamental condition of the issuer. Analysts of BTA Securities are optimistic about the prospects of the bank's development in coming years, due to a significant increase in the Bank's positions in the deposit market and the emergence of shareholder strategic investor on behalf of IFC. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities forward to continuing the positive trend in oil prices towards the end of trading, a correction down to the data API, which analysts expect growth of 1.5 million barrels. From the perspective of technical analysis, quotes have the potential for further growth, as oil has broken an important resistance level at $ 76. The next resistance level at $ 83.6, and if the quotes and strikes it, you can move up to $ 89.8. Fundamentally, the U.S. oil reserves declined by 10% since March this year, but are above average, gasoline consumption shows the unstable dynamics and relatively weak. - Today, metals continue the positive dynamic in anticipation of positive data on the U.S. construction sector and China's GDP for the third quarter. Positive corporate background, as well as the weakness of the dollar will contribute to the growth of quotations. - October 20, is expected weakening of the dollar against to the euro on positive U.S. housing market and the growth of quotations of U.S. stock markets. Analysts of BTA Securities predicted the weakening pound against the backdrop of increasing the money supply UK. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------ --------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 7.1 4.9 To sell -31 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 211.0 183.8 To hold -13 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.5 n.a. On reviewing n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE n.a. 93.0 n.a. n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a. BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 568.0 582.0 To hold +2 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------ --------- Oil and Gaz: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.4 23.2 To hold -9 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.3 2.0 To buy +57 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------ --------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,301.0 1,324.0 To hold +2 ENRC LSE 951.0 824.0 To hold -13 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.06 0.13 To buy +136 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 9.0 7.0 To sell -21 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.1 2.0 To sell -34 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------ --------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,400.0 25,093.0 To buy +39 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.4 0.0 To sell -90 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 75.5 120.9 To buy +60 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-10-20]