Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 15, 2009

/IRBIS, October 15, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for October 15, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today, analysts of BTA Securities tend to expect a decrease in quotations of the main indexes in Europe and the USA. In favor of Correction says a significant increase in the stock market yesterday, which could be the reason for this fixation of profits, particularly on shares of commodity companies. Reports of Goldman Sachs and Citigroup today, even if positive results are unlikely to support the market, given the substantial increase in value of the shares of banks in recent days, suggesting that expectations are already in the current quote. Besides facing today macro- data on unemployment, as well as indexes of business activity in the states of Philadelphia and New York are projected to be negative, which would put pressure on markets. Data on oil reserves in the United States, whose publication was postponed to Thursday, is also unlikely to be pleasantly surprised. Analysts BTA Securities believes that in the first half day of trading in Europe in mind euro growth rate / dollar and oil price dynamics of the European markets will be positive. In the afternoon, after the release of macro-data and data on oil reserves will begin fixing the profits. - Analysts of BTA Securities expected to increase the quotations KASE index by a significant increase in quotations of Kazakhmys and ENRC on the London Stock Exchange. For the same reasons to support the market can rally KKB and Halyk Bank. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect a small increase of stock price of Halyk Bank and Kazkommertsbank on the local market in response to the growth of both banks of the GDR on the London Stock Exchange. - Technical analysis shows the growth of quotations on oil today. But analysts of BTA Securities does not preclude correction after the publication of data on oil reserves in the U.S., which is likely to grow as a result of the closure of several refineries in the U.S. autumn repairs. On other hand, the data API, released yesterday, showed a significant reduction in gasoline stocks, which may be perceived by investors as the latest sign of economic recovery. Technical analysis shows reduction of the GDR of Kazmunaigaz and shares BMB Munai today. - Today's day of analysts BTA Securities expect a small correction in prices for industrial metals. Positive data on China's copper imports in September gave a good impulse quotations metals yesterday, but today will have a greater influence the movement of the stock market, which is expected to survive this correction after an impressive rally in recent days. - Oct. 15 is expected to decrease the U.S. dollar against the euro on positive U.S. inflation. Analysts BTA Securities predict technical strengthening British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------- --------- Banks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 7.0 4.9 To sell -30 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 225.5 183.8 To sell -18 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.3 n.a. On discussion n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE n.a. 93.0 n.a. n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a. BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 542.0 582.0 To hold +7 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------- --------- Oil and Gaz: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.6 23.2 To hold -9 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.2 2.0 To buy +66 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------- --------- Metallurgy: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,289.0 1,324.0 To hold +3 ENRC LSE 964.0 824.0 To hold -15 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.06 0.13 To buy +136 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.8 7.0 To sell -20 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.1 2.0 To sell -35 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------- --------- Companies with small capital: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ KAZAKTELECOM KASE 17,000.0 25,093.0 To buy +48 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.4 0.0 To sell -89 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 75.8 120.9 To buy +60 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-10-15]