Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for September 24, 2009
24.09.09 20:35
/IRBIS, September 24, 09/ - JSC BTA Bank"s subsidiary BTA Securities
(BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events,
Forecasts and Investment ideas for September 24, 2009.
According to the report, the company analysts expect today:
- on Thursday, a negative dynamics of the main indexes in Europe and the
U.S. may continue in response to the further strengthening of the U.S.
dollar, amid expectations of a quick withdrawal of anti-crisis measures
regulators. Commodity markets continue to fall today, even in the event
of positive data on unemployment, which in recent years rarely
presented with pleasant surprises. The pressure on oil markets will
continue to provide a negative situation with the demand for petroleum
products in the United States. Data on sales of homes on the secondary
market can support the U.S. stock market quotes. Dynamics of futures
for the major indices so far said about the positive dynamics of the
majority of them today. Technical analysis gives a down signal on all the
major indexes.
- Analysts of BTA Securities don't exclude a slight increase in quotations
of KASE index, in response to rising of bank shares prices. Pressure on
the market will have a primary action on the expected negative external
newsletter background.
- Analysts of BTA Securities don't preclude further growth of stock price
and the GDR Kazakhstan's leading banks - Kazkommertsbank and Halyk
Savings Bank on expectations of a successful repayment of their debts
in October. However, it should be noted that these expectations are
already in their fundamental assessments of equity instruments, so this
increase appears to be unfounded. BTA Securities still recommend to
pay attention to common shares of Bank CenterCredit, the current
market valuation does not correspond to their true fundamental value.
- Today is expected to continue to reduce oil prices in response to a report
published yesterday, U.S. Department of Energy. A significant increase
in crude oil and petroleum products in the country will continue to
reinforce concerns about declining energy demand. Technical analysis
now suggests decline in oil prices and quotations BMB Munai, as well as
increase the value of the GDR JSC Exploration Production
KazMunaiGas.
- the expected strengthening of the U.S. dollar today could put pressure
on the price of metals, which would adversely affect the dynamics of the
global steel sector against a background of mixed macro. As a result,
analysts BTA Securities expect the continuation of multi-directional
change in stock price of domestic steel companies. Technical analysis
now suggests an increase in gold prices and quotations ENRC, as well
as reducing the cost of copper and shares in Kazakhmys.
- Sept. 24 is expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar against the euro on
positive U.S. labor market.
Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in
securities of issuers in Kazakhstan:
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Stock Final Target price Recom Potential
Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent
ange
-------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- ---------
Banks
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Kazkommertsbank-GDR LSE 6.8 4.9 To sell -28
Kazkommertsbank -PREF KASE 154.0 138.7 To hold -10
Halyk Bank-GDR LSE 7.6 5.0 To sell -34
Halyk Bank -PREF (HSBKp) KASE 123.2 93.0 To sell -25
Halyk Bank -PREF1 (HSBKp1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a.
Bank Center Credit KASE 520.0 582.0 To hold +12
-------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- ---------
Oil and Gaz:
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RD KazMunaiGaz-GDR LSE 21.0 23.2 To hold +10
BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.0 2.0 To buy +99
-------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- ---------
Metallurgy:
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KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,102.0 1,046.0 To hold -5
ENRC LSE 885.0 824.0 To hold -7
ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.06 0.13 To buy +117
KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 6.6 7.0 To hold +7
URANIUM ONE LSE 2.4 2.0 To hold -14
-------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- ---------
Companies with small capital:
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Kazakhtelecom KASE 15,700.0 25,093.0 To buy +60
Kazakhstan Kagazi LSE 0.2 0.0 To sell -74
STEPPE CEMENT LSE 60.5 120.9 To buy +100
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The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or
the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis"
doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2009-09-24]