/IRBIS, September 24, 09/ - JSC BTA Bank"s subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for September 24, 2009.

According to the report, the company analysts expect today:

• on Thursday, a negative dynamics of the main indexes in Europe and the U.S. may continue in response to the further strengthening of the U.S. dollar, amid expectations of a quick withdrawal of anti-crisis measures regulators. Commodity markets continue to fall today, even in the event of positive data on unemployment, which in recent years rarely presented with pleasant surprises. The pressure on oil markets will continue to provide a negative situation with the demand for petroleum products in the United States. Data on sales of homes on the secondary market can support the U.S. stock market quotes. Dynamics of futures for the major indices so far said about the positive dynamics of the majority of them today. Technical analysis gives a down signal on all the major indexes.
• Analysts of BTA Securities don't exclude a slight increase in quotations of KASE index, in response to rising of bank shares prices. Pressure on the market will have a primary action on the expected negative external newsletter background.
• Analysts of BTA Securities don't preclude further growth of stock price and the GDR Kazakhstan's leading banks - Kazkommertsbank and Halyk Savings Bank on expectations of a successful repayment of their debts in October. However, it should be noted that these expectations are already in their fundamental assessments of equity instruments, so this increase appears to be unfounded. BTA Securities still recommend to pay attention to common shares of Bank CenterCredit, the current market valuation does not correspond to their true fundamental value.
• Today is expected to continue to reduce oil prices in response to a report published yesterday, U.S. Department of Energy. A significant increase in crude oil and petroleum products in the country will continue to reinforce concerns about declining energy demand. Technical analysis now suggests decline in oil prices and quotations BMB Munai, as well as increase the value of the GDR JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas.
• the expected strengthening of the U.S. dollar today could put pressure on the price of metals, which would adversely affect the dynamics of the global steel sector against a background of mixed macro. As a result, analysts BTA Securities expect the continuation of multi-directional change in stock price of domestic steel companies. Technical analysis now suggests an increase in gold prices and quotations ENRC, as well as reducing the cost of copper and shares in Kazakhmys.
• Sept. 24 is expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar against the euro on positive U.S. labor market.

Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan:

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                           Stock    Final Target price Recom     Potential
Emitter                    Exch     price     for 2009 mendation % percent
                           ange
-------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- ---------

Banks

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Kazkommertsbank-GDR        LSE        6.8          4.9 To sell         -28
Kazkommertsbank -PREF      KASE     154.0        138.7 To hold         -10
Halyk Bank-GDR             LSE        7.6          5.0 To sell         -34
Halyk Bank -PREF (HSBKp)   KASE     123.2         93.0 To sell         -25
Halyk Bank -PREF1 (HSBKp1) KASE      n.a.        123.0 n.a.           n.a.
Bank Center Credit         KASE     520.0        582.0 To hold         +12
-------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- ---------

Oil and Gaz:

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RD KazMunaiGaz-GDR         LSE       21.0         23.2 To hold         +10
BMB MUNAI                  AMEX       1.0          2.0 To buy          +99
-------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- ---------

Metallurgy:

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KAZAKHMYS PLC              LSE    1,102.0      1,046.0 To hold          -5
ENRC                       LSE      885.0        824.0 To hold          -7
ORSU METALS CORP.          TSX       0.06         0.13 To buy         +117
KAZAKHGOLD-GDR             LSE        6.6          7.0 To hold          +7
URANIUM ONE                LSE        2.4          2.0 To hold         -14
-------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- ---------

Companies with small capital:

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Kazakhtelecom              KASE  15,700.0     25,093.0 To buy          +60
Kazakhstan Kagazi          LSE        0.2          0.0 To sell         -74
STEPPE CEMENT              LSE       60.5        120.9 To buy         +100
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The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.

[2009-09-24]