Forecast and recommendations of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) analysts on September 21, 2009

/IRBIS September 21, 2009/ - BTA Securities Subsidiary of BTA Bank (Almaty, BTA Securities) provided its main survey of events and investment ideas and forecast to IRBIS on September 21, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect: - expected weak dynamics of foreign markets, gravitating to fall amid fears that the growth of the stock market may have exceeded the prospects of economic recovery. In the first half day of trading in Europe, analysts BTA Securities forecast lower stock price against the backdrop of lower oil prices and metals. In the afternoon and at the opening of trading in the U.S. major indices of both regions may go up in response to positive data on the August leading indicator (Leading Indicators). Dynamics of futures for the major indexes still talking about the negative dynamics of the markets in Europe and the United States today. Technical analysis gives a signal down almost all the major indexes. - a possible reduction of KASE index in response to the expected correction in foreign markets and lower prices for oil and metals. - Today analysts BTA Securities expect fixation profits on shares of Kazakh banks in the background correction in foreign markets. A significant decline can show stock quotes and GDR Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan and Kazkommertsbank how much over-priced after the recent rally. - Soon quotes GDR JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas could fall under the pressure of the anticipated negative for oil prices in response to the continued strengthening of the dollar. A major driving force in the sector will continue to be concerns about declining energy demand, as well as an increase in stocks petroleum products in the U.S., the largest consumer of oil, continues. - Today we can expect to continue to reduce stock price of domestic steel companies under pressure from fears of too significant growth in the current economic conditions. Strengthening U.S. dollar is likely to once again exert pressure on the price of metals, which will also negatively affect the dynamics of the metallurgical sector. - Sept. 21 is expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar against the euro on positive U.S. Leading Indicators. - Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazkommertsbank-GDR LSE 6.1 4.9 To sell -19 Kazkommertsbank -PREF KASE 145.0 138.7 To hold -4 Halyk Bank-GDR LSE 7.4 5.0 To sell -32 Halyk Bank -PREF (HSBKp) KASE 123.2 93.0 To sell -25 Halyk Bank -PREF1 (HSBKp1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a. Bank Center Credit KASE 517.0 582.0 To hold +13 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- RD KazMunaiGaz-GDR LSE 21.2 23.2 To hold +9 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.0 2.0 To buy +101 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1.141.0 1.046.0 To hold -8 ENRC LSE 895.0 824.0 To hold -8 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.05 0.13 To buy +160 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 6.0 7.0 To buy +18 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.6 2.0 To sell -20 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 15.200.0 25.093.0 To buy +65 Kazakhstan Kagazi LSE 0.2 0.0 To sell -74 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 46.5 120.9 To buy +160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-09-21]