Forecast and recommendations of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) analysts on September 18, 2009

/IRBIS September 18, 2009/ - BTA Securities Subsidiary of BTA Bank (Almaty, BTA Securities) provided its main survey of events and investment ideas and forecast to IRBIS on September 18, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect: - a correction of global stock market, which began yesterday in the U.S., most likely today will spread to the European fields. Today, one of the main drivers of the market rate of euro / dollar will go down to zero by the news background over the U.S. and eurozone. Negative dynamics of gold prices will also exert pressure on the course. Commodity markets and the shares of commodity companies, respectively, also show negative dynamics. The technical analysis of prices for oil and copper indicate their decline today. Dynamics of futures for the major indexes so far suggests multidirectional dynamic markets in Europe and the USA. Technical analysis gives a signal down almost all the major indexes. - analysts of BTA Securities expect the decline of KASE index in response to the expected correction in foreign markets after a nearly four-rally. Fall in the price of shares may be almost all representatives of the index. - analysts of BTA Securities expect fixation of profits on shares of Kazakh banks against the backdrop of the expected correction in foreign markets. A significant decline can show stock quotes and GDR Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan and Kazkommertsbank how much over-priced after the recent rally. Yesterday, analysts of BTA Securities set a new target price on shares of Kazkommertsbank by raising it to 32%, because of lower risk-free rate in Kazakhstan and improve operating efficiency in the first half. Despite this, the BTA Securities still recommend to sell equity instruments Bank because current market price is still significantly higher than fair price. Quality of the loan portfolio of the largest bank in the country is still deteriorating, which puts pressure on the fundamental value. - In nearest time, quotes of GDR JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas could fall under the pressure of the anticipated negative dynamics of equity markets in response to concerns about overly large upswing. Oil prices may decline in response to a strengthening of U.S. dollar and the closing of positions by investors wishing to consolidate profit after significant growth in recent days. A major driving force in sector will continue to be concerns about declining energy demand, as well as stocks of petroleum products in the U.S., the largest consumer of oil remains high. - Today you can expect a decrease in stock price of domestic steel companies under pressure from fears of too significant growth in the current economic conditions. Strengthening U.S. dollar is likely to exert pressure on price of metals, which will also negatively affect the dynamics of metallurgical sector. - On September, 18 is expected a technical straightening of the U.S.D to euro. - Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazkommertsbank-GDR LSE 6.0 3.7 To,sell -18 Kazkommertsbank -PREF KASE 158.0 138.7 To,hold -12 Halyk Bank-GDR LSE 7.4 5.0 To,sell -32 Halyk Bank -PREF (HSBKp) KASE 123.2 93.0 To,sell -25 Halyk Bank -PREF1 (HSBKp1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a. Bank Center Credit KASE 512.0 582.0 To,hold +14 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- RD KazMunaiGaz-GDR LSE 21.2 23.2 To,hold +9 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.9 2.0 To,buy, +128 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,141.0 1,046.0 To,hold -8 ENRC LSE 895.0 824.0 To,hold -8 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.05 0.13 To,buy, +160 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 6.0 7.0 To,buy, +18 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.6 2.0 To,sell -20 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 15,200.0 25,093.0 To,buy +65 Kazakhstan Kagazi LSE 0.2 0.0 To,sell -74 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 46.5 120.9 To,buy +160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-09-18]