Forecast and recommendations of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) analysts on September 17, 2009

/IRBIS September 17, 2009/ - BTA Securities Subsidiary of BTA Bank (Almaty, BTA Securities) provided its main survey of events and investment ideas and forecast to IRBIS on September 17, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect: - despite of a three-day quotes index SnP500 increases, now investors have reason to preserve the bull attitude. Strong optimism in the market, caused more than encouraging data on retail sales, industrial production and oil reserves in the United States can contribute to further sharp rise in the stock market. Today, investors are optimistic to expect weekly data on unemployment (Initial and Continuous Claims) and the real estate market (Housing Starts and Building Permits) for August, which economists promise to improve results. Commodity markets now have every chance to improve, because U.S. dollar will likely continue to weaken against the euro on continued buying of risky instruments by investors and rising prices for gold. Yesterday, the euro / dollar overcame the resistance level at 1.47 points, opening the way to a mark of 1.49. Data for the eurozone trade balance should support the European currency. The negative results of Oracle for the last quarter are unlikely to have strong influence on the market. Dynamics of futures for the major indexes still talks about the positive dynamics of the market in Europe and the United States today. Technical analysis gives a signal up on all the major indexes. - analysts of BTA Securities now expects to further enhance the KASE index by maintaining optimism in the domestic market and the strong dynamics of the commodity sector before following the closure of internal trades. Shares of banks may also support growth. - Today, a favorable external news background will contribute to investor demand for shares of domestic banks. Analysts of BTA Securities expected to increase the quotations, without exception, all equity instruments sector. Shares of Bank CenterCredit, lagging in growth, may show the strongest dynamics - In the nearest time, quotes of GDR JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas may again increase due to the expected positive dynamics of equity markets in response to the macro-evidence of a gradual withdrawal of the world economy from the crisis. Oil prices may continue to grow with the support of the U.S. dollar weakens supported prices could have a resumption of terrorist attacks, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta in Nigeria's oil-producing infrastructure. Representatives of the movement have already declared the end of the 60- day truce. Nevertheless, the major driving force in the sector are still concerns about falling demand for energy, as the reduction of oil reserves in the U.S. last week, possibly due to a reduction in imports. - Today, continued weakening of the U.S. dollar may once again support the prices of metals, with beneficial effects on share prices of domestic steel companies. Also a positive effect on the dynamics of the steel sector will provide hope for the restoration of the world economy after the worst period of recession, reinforced by the emerging macro, which is likely to again be positive. - On September 17, is expected to decrease the U.S. dollar against the euro on positive U.S. housing market and improve the American stock market quotations. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazkommertsbank-GDR LSE 6.0 3.7 To sell -38 Kazkommertsbank -PREF KASE 158.0 138.7 To hold -12 Halyk Bank-GDR LSE 7.1 5.0 To sell -29 Halyk Bank -PREF (HSBKp) KASE 123.2 93.0 To sell -25 Halyk Bank -PREF1 (HSBKp1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a. Bank Center Credit KASE 510.0 582.0 To hold +14 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- RD KazMunaiGaz-GDR LSE 20.9 23.2 To hold +11 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.9 2.0 To buy +117 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,097.0 1,046.0 To hold -8 ENRC LSE 861.0 824.0 To hold -10 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.04 0.13 To buy +160 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 5.6 7.0 To buy +20 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.4 2.0 To sell -22 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 15,200.0 25,093.0 To buy +65 Kazakhstan Kagazi LSE 0.2 0.0 To sell -74 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 44.5 120.9 To buy +172 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-09-17]