Forecast and recommendations of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) analysts on September 16, 2009

/IRBIS September 16, 2009/ - BTA Securities Subsidiary of BTA Bank (Almaty, BTA Securities) provided its main survey of events and investment ideas and forecast to IRBIS on September 16, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect: - analysts of BTA Securities do not preclude further increase of global market share in response to the return of optimism after the eve of strong data on U.S. retail sales for August. Technical analysis suggests conservation bullish sentiment on the market today of oil and metals, and the likelihood of further weakening of U.S. dollar against the euro. The euro /dollar today will test the 1.470 points mark. A number of fundamental data today can support the increasing market shares. On this day out statistics for August industrial production in the U.S., capacity utilization and the current account. It is expected to improve performance. Data on inflation (CPI) may be somewhat optimistic grease, because expected to increase prices on the basis of last month. Among corporate events that may affect the dynamics of the market, it should be noted Oracle Report for the second quarter of 2009. Dynamics of futures for the major indexes still talks about the positive dynamics of the market in Europe and the United States today. Technical analysis gives a signal up on all the major indexes. - KASE index may continue to increase in response to the return of optimism to external markets, contributing to further enhance the main indexes in Europe and the price of oil and metals. Analysts BTA Securities expected to increase the stock price of all the representatives of the national index. - expects an another increase in stock price and the GDR all Kazakh banks against the expected growth in the major indexes in Europe and the USA. Fundamental support quotes equity instruments Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan and Kazkommertsbank can have a restriction on his five-year CDS spreads. - shortly quotes of GDR JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas may increase due to the expected positive dynamics of European stock markets. Oil prices will depend on the data report by the U.S. Department of Energy Stocks. It is expected that the report will show the reduction in stocks of black gold of the Week at 2.5 million barrels. Nevertheless, the main driving force will continue to be concerns about declining of energy demand, as analysts continue to expect an increase in U.S. petroleum stockpiles, the biggest consumer of oil. Supported prices could have a resumption of terrorist attacks, the Movement for the Emancipation Niger Delta oil-producing infrastructure in Nigeria. Representatives of the movement have already declared the end of the 60-day truce. - analysts of BTA Securities expected further increase in stock price of domestic steel companies, supported by rising prices for metals in response to the expected positive macro-data and the weakening U.S. dollar. - On September 16, is expected to decrease the U.S. dollar against the euro on positive U.S. industrial production and raising the American stock market quotations. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazkommertsbank-GDR LSE 5,9 3,7 To sell -37 Kazkommertsbank -PREF KASE 154,0 138,7 To hold -10 Halyk Bank-GDR LSE 6,9 5,0 To sell -28 Halyk Bank -PREF (HSBKp) KASE 123,2 93,0 To sell -25 Halyk Bank -PREF1 (HSBKp1) KASE n.a. 123,0 n.a. n.a. Bank Center Credit KASE 502,0 582,0 To buy +16 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- RD KazMunaiGaz-GDR LSE 20,8 23,2 To hold +12 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0,9 2,0 To buy +123 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1 097,0 1 046,0 To hold -5 ENRC LSE 861,0 824,0 To hold -4 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0,04 0,13 To buy +225 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 5,6 7,0 To buy +25 URANIUM ONE LSE 2,4 2,0 To sell -15 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 15 450,0 25 093,0 To buy +62 Kazakhstan Kagazi LSE 0,2 0,0 To sell -81 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 43,5 120,9 To buy +178 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-09-16]