Forecast and recommendations of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) analysts on august 17, 2009

/IRBIS, August 17, 2009/ - JSC "BTA Bank"s subsidiary "BTA Securities" (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events and investment ideas and forecasts for August 5, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect: - further decrease in main indices of Europe and the USA in response to negative macro-data in Japan and China. In the second quarter, the GDP of Japan showed a positive dynamic in the last 5 quarters for the first time, increased by 3.7 %. However, actual data were worse than forecast. Foreign direct investment in China continued failing. In July, it fell by 35.7 % annually. Commodities shares will be under pressure today. Strengthening of the U.S. dollar and negative macro-data will have a dampening effect on oil prices. Positive data on the Empire Manufacturing can support the markets today. Futures dynamics on major indices shows its decline today. Technical analysis demonstrate downturn signal. - KASE? index will be decreased as reply to negative dynamic on international stock markets and decrease of oil prices on Friday. - most of the shares in Kazakhstan banking sector on current levels are overvalued. Favorable news background in the sector in recent weeks could support the equity markets, however, there is a low potential profitability . Analysts of BTA Securities consider that Bank CenterCredit is underestimated. Ordinary shares of the Bank retain potential growth by 36 %. Risks associated with the activities of the bank are minimal. - negative dynamic of oil prices on the strengthening dollar and the expected growth in the U.S. stocks this week. GDR of Exploration Production KazMunaiGaz and shares of BMB Munai will fall because of the dynamics of oil prices. - analysts of BTA Securities predict a pressure on metals price from the growing American dollar, which with the GDP growth of Japan will have a negative impact on the shares of domestic steel companies in the first half of the day. Subsequently, the positive macroeconomic data for the United States can support a metallurgical sector. - August 17, it is expected strengthening of US dollar over euro on positive data from Empire Manugacturing. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-08-17]