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19.12.2008 16:44 #KASE news

ANALYSIS: In November 2008 KASE repo market saw the keen demand on tenge

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, December 19, 08/ - In November 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 9,545 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,874.6 bn. or USD23,934.3 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 63.7 % of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in October 2008 - 64.2 %).

Compared to October 2008 the volume of transactions decreased by KZT36.1 bn. ($352.9 m.) or by 1.2%. Relative to November 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT622.8 bn. ($5, 277.6 m.) or by 27.7 % (by 28.3 % in dollar terms).

Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in November on comparable operations totaled 100 %, in October 2008 - 99.9%.

Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows:

  • the stake of automatic repo transactions was 88.5 % of the sector's turnover (KZT2,544.6 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 78.0% (KZT2,243.1 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 10.5 % (KZT301.5 bn.);
  • the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method was 11.5 % of the sector's turnover (KZT330.0 bn.), including deals in GS - 2.6 % (KZT74.2 bn.), deals in CS - 8.9 % (KZT255.7 bn.).

For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in October, 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 92.4 % (GS - 81.2 %; CS - 11.2 %); repo by nego method - 7.6 % (GS - 1.4 %; CS - 6.2 %).

November was distinguished by the keen demand on tenge and growth of repo deals rates. November 21, TONIA indicator reached 11.23 % APR - the maximum since year beginning. Notwithstanding that repo market didn't reach the regular record on concluded deals in November, this indicator remained at rather high level.

While examining the reasons of such demand, apart from traditional tax payments, high activity on USD market attracts attention. Sustainable growth of the USD rate against tenge provoked keen interest to American currency on domestic market; especially if we take Kazakhstan banks December's debt maturities into account.

Moreover, positive fall of Kazakhstan main export commodities value led to decreasing of cash proceeds into the country. The mentioned factors in total became the reasons of keen demand on tenge and growth of short money value in the analyzed month.

Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in November 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (8.9 % of the market) are not published by IRBIS due to a very big volume of the table).

Automatic repo with GS - 78.0 % of the market

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR              Num- 
 Instrument -------------------------------------     Volume,   ber Market
(currency,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted         KZT    of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average          m. deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ----------- ----- ------
KZT_001         5.00  0.50 20.00    1.50     5.73   894,187.5  2204  78.66
KZT_002         5.40  4.75 10.00    6.00     7.38    43,260.0    44   3.81
KZT_003         5.00  2.00 10.50    5.00     5.27    28,836.0    52   2.54
KZT_007         4.70  4.00 10.50    5.50     7.26   162,797.1   249  14.32
KZT_014         4.25  4.25  5.30    5.30     4.78     2,038.0     3   0.18
KZT_028         4.50  4.50  7.00    7.00     5.81     5,724.0    10   0.50
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ----------- ----- ------
TOTAL                                             1,136,842.7 2,562    100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Automatic repo with CS - 10.5 % of the market

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Repo rate, % APR
 Instrument -------------------------------------   Volume,   Num- Market
(security,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted        m. ber of share,
term, days)     deal   mum   mum    deal  average       KZT  deals      %
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
ASBN_007                                     8.00      10.0      1   0.01
ASBNb10007     10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00     820.0      4   0.54
ASBNb10028     10.00 10.00 11.00   11.00    10.92   5,315.0      3   3.48
ASBNb3_014      8.70  8.70 10.00   10.00     9.38     252.0      2   0.16
ASBNb9_028                                  11.00   5,116.0      1   3.35
ASFI_001        5.50  4.50 10.00    6.50     7.37   1,939.2     18   1.27
ASFI_007        8.50  8.50 11.50    9.00     9.08   1,920.0      5   1.26
ASFI_030       14.00  9.00 14.00   14.00    11.58  19,768.3     29  12.93
ASFIb15007      8.00  8.00  9.00    9.00     8.25     908.0     12   0.59
ASFIb15014                                  10.50     140.0      1   0.09
ASFIb5_001      4.60  3.50 10.00    9.00     6.51   5,819.0     23   3.81
ASFIb5_003      6.00  6.00  6.00    6.00     6.00     573.0      2   0.37
ASFIb5_007     12.00  6.00 12.00   12.00    10.95     151.0      6   0.10
ASFIb5_014      8.50  8.50 10.00   10.00     9.25     198.0      2   0.13
ASFIp_028      11.84 11.84 12.50   11.84    11.94  12,973.1     17   8.49
ATFBb3_007                                  10.00     179.0      1   0.12
ATFBb3_014                                  10.00      23.0      1   0.02
ATFBb4_014      8.50  8.50 10.00   10.00     9.25   1,020.0      2   0.67
ATFBb4_028     11.50 10.00 12.00   12.00    10.11     187.0      3   0.12
ATFBb5_028     11.00 11.00 11.50   11.50    11.26      21.0      2   0.01
ATFBb6_028     10.60 10.60 12.00   10.60    10.61     692.0     13   0.45
BTAIb4_007      6.00  5.00  6.00    5.00     5.02      47.0      2   0.03
BTAIb5_001      5.80  5.00 13.00    5.00     7.83  11,070.0     20   7.24
BTAIb5_003                                   7.00     603.0      1   0.39
BTAIb5_007                                   8.50     100.0      1   0.07
BTAIb6_001      9.00  9.00  9.00    9.00     9.00     762.0      2   0.50
BTAIb9_090     12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00     240.0      2   0.16
BTAS_001        3.00  3.00 12.50    3.00     8.50   4,940.2     15   3.23
BTAS_003        5.00  3.00  5.00    3.00     3.47     593.0      2   0.39
BTAS_007        7.00  7.00 16.00   16.00    15.61   2,419.1     11   1.58
BTAS_030       12.50 12.50 15.00   12.50    14.68   1,744.1      8   1.14
BTAS_090       12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00   4,570.2     12   2.99
BTASb7_001      3.00  1.00  7.00    1.00     4.79   1,605.0     12   1.05
BTASb7_007      7.00  3.00 16.00    6.00    13.08   5,358.1     23   3.50
BTASb7_030     11.00 11.00 15.00   11.00    11.92   1,590.0      7   1.04
BTASb9_001                                   2.00   1,550.0      1   1.01
BTASb9_003                                   2.50   2,000.0      1   1.31
BTASb9_007     12.00  3.00 12.00   12.00    10.65   9,553.0     13   6.25
BTASb9_014      9.00  5.75 12.00    9.00     9.52   5,324.0     11   3.48
BTASb9_030     10.20 10.20 10.50   10.50    10.46   1,102.0      4   0.72
CCBN_001        4.60  4.60  6.50    6.50     5.34      59.0      3   0.04
CCBN_007                                     6.00      30.0      1   0.02
CCBN_014                                     9.00       7.0      1   0.00
CCBN_030       11.50 11.50 12.00   11.65    11.58     280.0      3   0.18
CCBN_090       12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00   2,000.0      2   1.31
CCBNb10030                                  10.50     407.0      1   0.27
CCBNb12007      9.00  9.00  9.50    9.50     9.25   1,185.0      4   0.78
CCBNb13014      8.50  8.50 10.00   10.00     9.25     290.0      2   0.19
CCBNb14028                                  12.00      87.0      1   0.06
CCBNb19028                                  11.00   4,040.0      1   2.64
CCBNb3_028     10.00 10.00 10.10   10.10    10.05     198.0      2   0.13
CSBNb4_014      8.50  8.50 10.00   10.00     9.23     471.0      2   0.31
CSBNb5_014      8.50  8.50 10.00   10.00     9.25     342.0      2   0.22
CSBNb6_014      8.50  8.50 10.00   10.00     9.25     364.0      2   0.24
EUBNb3_014                                   7.00      46.0      1   0.03
EUBNb3_028                                  12.00      65.0      1   0.04
EXBNb2_001      6.00  4.00  6.00    4.00     5.14     148.0      3   0.10
EXBNb2_014                                   9.00      17.0      1   0.01
HSBKb7_028     10.20 10.00 12.00   10.00    10.44     285.0      4   0.19
HSBKp1_001      4.60  3.50 10.00    9.00     6.87   2,522.0     10   1.65
HSBKp1_003                                   6.00     256.0      1   0.17
HSBKp1_014      8.00  8.00 10.00   10.00     9.67     602.0      2   0.39
KASTb1_028     11.50 11.50 11.50   11.50    11.50     852.0      2   0.56
KKGB_028                                    12.00      15.0      1   0.01
KKGBb2_014      8.50  8.50 10.00   10.00     9.24     482.0      2   0.32
KKGBb2_028     10.00 10.00 10.20   10.20    10.11      49.1      2   0.03
KZIKb2_028                                  10.20      76.0      1   0.05
KZIKb3_028     10.00 10.00 10.20   10.20    10.06     116.0      2   0.08
KZTCb1_028                                  11.20      62.0      1   0.04
KZTK_007                                    11.00      39.0      1   0.03
NFBN_001       12.00 12.00 12.00   12.00    12.00   1,773.0     23   1.16
ORDB_014       18.50 18.50 18.50   18.50    18.50     424.0      4   0.28
ORDB_028       14.50 14.50 18.00   14.50    15.70     843.0     11   0.55
ORDBb2_028                                  18.00      25.0      1   0.02
ORDBp_028      14.50 14.50 18.50   18.50    17.00     267.0      4   0.17
PRKRb2_028     11.00 11.00 12.00   11.00    11.03   5,942.0      4   3.89
RDGZ_001        5.00  3.50 10.00    5.00     6.03   4,146.1     23   2.71
RDGZ_014                                    10.50      20.0      1   0.01
RDGZ_028       12.50 12.00 13.00   13.00    12.58     689.0      3   0.45
RGBRb4_001     11.00  7.00 11.00    7.00     8.06      87.0      2   0.06
RGBRb4_007      8.00  8.00  8.00    8.00     8.00      70.0      2   0.05
RGBRb5_001      0.00  0.00 11.00    7.00     5.92     242.0      7   0.16
RGBRb6_001      5.00  5.00  6.00    6.00     5.84   3,217.0     40   2.10
RGBRb6_028                                  12.00      48.0      1   0.03
SATCb1_003     14.50 10.00 14.50   10.00    14.25   2,859.0      2   1.87
SATCb1_007     11.50 11.50 11.50   11.50    11.50   2,300.0      2   1.50
TEBN_030       12.50 12.50 12.50   12.50    12.50      83.0      2   0.05
TEBNp_030                                   12.50      21.0      1   0.01
TSBN_001       11.50  8.00 11.50    8.00     9.80     208.0      2   0.14
TSBN_014        8.50  8.50 10.00   10.00     9.78     118.0      2   0.08
TSBN_030       11.00 10.50 11.00   11.00    11.00     830.0      7   0.54
UTMK_007                                     3.00      80.0      1   0.05
----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------
TOTAL                                             152,879.8    503    100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Repo on direct deals with GS - 2.6 % of the market

--------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Repo rate, % APR
Term of -------------------------------------  Volume,   Num- Market
 repo,  on first mini- maxi- on last weighted       m. ber of share,
 days       deal   mum   mum    deal  average      KZT  deals      %
------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------
0          91.25 11.00 91.25   11.00    64.50    300.0      2   0.76
1           3.00  0.01 13.00   10.00     7.15  8,911.2     71  22.63
2           7.51  5.25  7.51    5.25     7.36  1,477.0      2   3.75
3           5.00  0.01 16.84    4.00    10.70  3,166.0     22   8.04
4           8.25  3.25  8.25    4.00     6.46    386.0      5   0.98
5           5.50  3.74 10.00    8.03     8.20  2,319.6     18   5.89
6          10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00    738.1      8   1.87
7           6.50  6.00 15.00    8.00     7.86 14,636.3    155  37.16
8           8.06  8.06 15.63   15.63    10.69  2,842.6     29   7.22
10          6.75  6.75 10.16   10.16     8.29    127.9      2   0.32
11                                       0.00    112.8      1   0.29
13          0.50  0.50 10.00    0.50     7.14    398.0      9   1.01
14          6.50  0.54  6.50    5.00     4.73    268.0      3   0.68
15         10.00 10.00 10.00   10.00    10.00    736.7      8   1.87
18          0.00  0.00 10.00   10.00     9.09    418.0      2   1.06
20         13.00 13.00 14.50   14.50    13.96     43.1      2   0.11
21          6.51  6.51  6.51    6.51     6.51    150.0      2   0.38
25                                       8.21     19.0      1   0.05
27          8.83  8.83 10.00   10.00     9.68    133.6      3   0.34
28          3.40  3.40  7.25    7.25     7.13  1,238.0     13   3.14
30                                      10.00     80.0      1   0.20
31          7.31  7.31  8.00    8.00     7.93    884.2      9   2.24
------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------
TOTAL                                         39,386.1    368    100
--------------------------------------------------------------------

[2008-12-19]