ANALYSIS: In November 2008 KASE repo market saw the keen demand on tenge

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, December 19, 08/ - In November 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 9,545 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,874.6 bn. or USD23,934.3 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 63.7 % of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in October 2008 - 64.2 %). Compared to October 2008 the volume of transactions decreased by KZT36.1 bn. ($352.9 m.) or by 1.2%. Relative to November 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT622.8 bn. ($5, 277.6 m.) or by 27.7 % (by 28.3 % in dollar terms). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in November on comparable operations totaled 100 %, in October 2008 - 99.9%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 88.5 % of the sector's turnover (KZT2,544.6 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 78.0% (KZT2,243.1 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 10.5 % (KZT301.5 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method was 11.5 % of the sector's turnover (KZT330.0 bn.), including deals in GS - 2.6 % (KZT74.2 bn.), deals in CS - 8.9 % (KZT255.7 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in October, 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 92.4 % (GS - 81.2 %; CS - 11.2 %); repo by nego method - 7.6 % (GS - 1.4 %; CS - 6.2 %). November was distinguished by the keen demand on tenge and growth of repo deals rates. November 21, TONIA indicator reached 11.23 % APR - the maximum since year beginning. Notwithstanding that repo market didn't reach the regular record on concluded deals in November, this indicator remained at rather high level. While examining the reasons of such demand, apart from traditional tax payments, high activity on USD market attracts attention. Sustainable growth of the USD rate against tenge provoked keen interest to American currency on domestic market; especially if we take Kazakhstan banks December's debt maturities into account. Moreover, positive fall of Kazakhstan main export commodities value led to decreasing of cash proceeds into the country. The mentioned factors in total became the reasons of keen demand on tenge and growth of short money value in the analyzed month. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in November 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (8.9 % of the market) are not published by IRBIS due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 78.0 % of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Num- Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, ber Market (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ----------- ----- ------ KZT_001 5.00 0.50 20.00 1.50 5.73 894,187.5 2204 78.66 KZT_002 5.40 4.75 10.00 6.00 7.38 43,260.0 44 3.81 KZT_003 5.00 2.00 10.50 5.00 5.27 28,836.0 52 2.54 KZT_007 4.70 4.00 10.50 5.50 7.26 162,797.1 249 14.32 KZT_014 4.25 4.25 5.30 5.30 4.78 2,038.0 3 0.18 KZT_028 4.50 4.50 7.00 7.00 5.81 5,724.0 10 0.50 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ----------- ----- ------ TOTAL 1,136,842.7 2,562 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo with CS - 10.5 % of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBN_007 8.00 10.0 1 0.01 ASBNb10007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 820.0 4 0.54 ASBNb10028 10.00 10.00 11.00 11.00 10.92 5,315.0 3 3.48 ASBNb3_014 8.70 8.70 10.00 10.00 9.38 252.0 2 0.16 ASBNb9_028 11.00 5,116.0 1 3.35 ASFI_001 5.50 4.50 10.00 6.50 7.37 1,939.2 18 1.27 ASFI_007 8.50 8.50 11.50 9.00 9.08 1,920.0 5 1.26 ASFI_030 14.00 9.00 14.00 14.00 11.58 19,768.3 29 12.93 ASFIb15007 8.00 8.00 9.00 9.00 8.25 908.0 12 0.59 ASFIb15014 10.50 140.0 1 0.09 ASFIb5_001 4.60 3.50 10.00 9.00 6.51 5,819.0 23 3.81 ASFIb5_003 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 573.0 2 0.37 ASFIb5_007 12.00 6.00 12.00 12.00 10.95 151.0 6 0.10 ASFIb5_014 8.50 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.25 198.0 2 0.13 ASFIp_028 11.84 11.84 12.50 11.84 11.94 12,973.1 17 8.49 ATFBb3_007 10.00 179.0 1 0.12 ATFBb3_014 10.00 23.0 1 0.02 ATFBb4_014 8.50 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.25 1,020.0 2 0.67 ATFBb4_028 11.50 10.00 12.00 12.00 10.11 187.0 3 0.12 ATFBb5_028 11.00 11.00 11.50 11.50 11.26 21.0 2 0.01 ATFBb6_028 10.60 10.60 12.00 10.60 10.61 692.0 13 0.45 BTAIb4_007 6.00 5.00 6.00 5.00 5.02 47.0 2 0.03 BTAIb5_001 5.80 5.00 13.00 5.00 7.83 11,070.0 20 7.24 BTAIb5_003 7.00 603.0 1 0.39 BTAIb5_007 8.50 100.0 1 0.07 BTAIb6_001 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 762.0 2 0.50 BTAIb9_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 240.0 2 0.16 BTAS_001 3.00 3.00 12.50 3.00 8.50 4,940.2 15 3.23 BTAS_003 5.00 3.00 5.00 3.00 3.47 593.0 2 0.39 BTAS_007 7.00 7.00 16.00 16.00 15.61 2,419.1 11 1.58 BTAS_030 12.50 12.50 15.00 12.50 14.68 1,744.1 8 1.14 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 4,570.2 12 2.99 BTASb7_001 3.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 4.79 1,605.0 12 1.05 BTASb7_007 7.00 3.00 16.00 6.00 13.08 5,358.1 23 3.50 BTASb7_030 11.00 11.00 15.00 11.00 11.92 1,590.0 7 1.04 BTASb9_001 2.00 1,550.0 1 1.01 BTASb9_003 2.50 2,000.0 1 1.31 BTASb9_007 12.00 3.00 12.00 12.00 10.65 9,553.0 13 6.25 BTASb9_014 9.00 5.75 12.00 9.00 9.52 5,324.0 11 3.48 BTASb9_030 10.20 10.20 10.50 10.50 10.46 1,102.0 4 0.72 CCBN_001 4.60 4.60 6.50 6.50 5.34 59.0 3 0.04 CCBN_007 6.00 30.0 1 0.02 CCBN_014 9.00 7.0 1 0.00 CCBN_030 11.50 11.50 12.00 11.65 11.58 280.0 3 0.18 CCBN_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 2,000.0 2 1.31 CCBNb10030 10.50 407.0 1 0.27 CCBNb12007 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.25 1,185.0 4 0.78 CCBNb13014 8.50 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.25 290.0 2 0.19 CCBNb14028 12.00 87.0 1 0.06 CCBNb19028 11.00 4,040.0 1 2.64 CCBNb3_028 10.00 10.00 10.10 10.10 10.05 198.0 2 0.13 CSBNb4_014 8.50 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.23 471.0 2 0.31 CSBNb5_014 8.50 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.25 342.0 2 0.22 CSBNb6_014 8.50 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.25 364.0 2 0.24 EUBNb3_014 7.00 46.0 1 0.03 EUBNb3_028 12.00 65.0 1 0.04 EXBNb2_001 6.00 4.00 6.00 4.00 5.14 148.0 3 0.10 EXBNb2_014 9.00 17.0 1 0.01 HSBKb7_028 10.20 10.00 12.00 10.00 10.44 285.0 4 0.19 HSBKp1_001 4.60 3.50 10.00 9.00 6.87 2,522.0 10 1.65 HSBKp1_003 6.00 256.0 1 0.17 HSBKp1_014 8.00 8.00 10.00 10.00 9.67 602.0 2 0.39 KASTb1_028 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 852.0 2 0.56 KKGB_028 12.00 15.0 1 0.01 KKGBb2_014 8.50 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.24 482.0 2 0.32 KKGBb2_028 10.00 10.00 10.20 10.20 10.11 49.1 2 0.03 KZIKb2_028 10.20 76.0 1 0.05 KZIKb3_028 10.00 10.00 10.20 10.20 10.06 116.0 2 0.08 KZTCb1_028 11.20 62.0 1 0.04 KZTK_007 11.00 39.0 1 0.03 NFBN_001 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 1,773.0 23 1.16 ORDB_014 18.50 18.50 18.50 18.50 18.50 424.0 4 0.28 ORDB_028 14.50 14.50 18.00 14.50 15.70 843.0 11 0.55 ORDBb2_028 18.00 25.0 1 0.02 ORDBp_028 14.50 14.50 18.50 18.50 17.00 267.0 4 0.17 PRKRb2_028 11.00 11.00 12.00 11.00 11.03 5,942.0 4 3.89 RDGZ_001 5.00 3.50 10.00 5.00 6.03 4,146.1 23 2.71 RDGZ_014 10.50 20.0 1 0.01 RDGZ_028 12.50 12.00 13.00 13.00 12.58 689.0 3 0.45 RGBRb4_001 11.00 7.00 11.00 7.00 8.06 87.0 2 0.06 RGBRb4_007 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 70.0 2 0.05 RGBRb5_001 0.00 0.00 11.00 7.00 5.92 242.0 7 0.16 RGBRb6_001 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 5.84 3,217.0 40 2.10 RGBRb6_028 12.00 48.0 1 0.03 SATCb1_003 14.50 10.00 14.50 10.00 14.25 2,859.0 2 1.87 SATCb1_007 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 2,300.0 2 1.50 TEBN_030 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 83.0 2 0.05 TEBNp_030 12.50 21.0 1 0.01 TSBN_001 11.50 8.00 11.50 8.00 9.80 208.0 2 0.14 TSBN_014 8.50 8.50 10.00 10.00 9.78 118.0 2 0.08 TSBN_030 11.00 10.50 11.00 11.00 11.00 830.0 7 0.54 UTMK_007 3.00 80.0 1 0.05 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 152,879.8 503 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 2.6 % of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------ 0 91.25 11.00 91.25 11.00 64.50 300.0 2 0.76 1 3.00 0.01 13.00 10.00 7.15 8,911.2 71 22.63 2 7.51 5.25 7.51 5.25 7.36 1,477.0 2 3.75 3 5.00 0.01 16.84 4.00 10.70 3,166.0 22 8.04 4 8.25 3.25 8.25 4.00 6.46 386.0 5 0.98 5 5.50 3.74 10.00 8.03 8.20 2,319.6 18 5.89 6 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 738.1 8 1.87 7 6.50 6.00 15.00 8.00 7.86 14,636.3 155 37.16 8 8.06 8.06 15.63 15.63 10.69 2,842.6 29 7.22 10 6.75 6.75 10.16 10.16 8.29 127.9 2 0.32 11 0.00 112.8 1 0.29 13 0.50 0.50 10.00 0.50 7.14 398.0 9 1.01 14 6.50 0.54 6.50 5.00 4.73 268.0 3 0.68 15 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 736.7 8 1.87 18 0.00 0.00 10.00 10.00 9.09 418.0 2 1.06 20 13.00 13.00 14.50 14.50 13.96 43.1 2 0.11 21 6.51 6.51 6.51 6.51 6.51 150.0 2 0.38 25 8.21 19.0 1 0.05 27 8.83 8.83 10.00 10.00 9.68 133.6 3 0.34 28 3.40 3.40 7.25 7.25 7.13 1,238.0 13 3.14 30 10.00 80.0 1 0.20 31 7.31 7.31 8.00 8.00 7.93 884.2 9 2.24 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------ TOTAL 39,386.1 368 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------- [2008-12-19]