ANALYSIS: In October 2008 accumulated tenge liquidity led to the regular record on KASE repo market

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, November 26, 08/ - In October 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 9,209 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,910.7 bn. or USD24,287.3 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 64.2 % of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in September 2008 - 55.0 %). The mentioned value is the biggest monthly turnover of repo transactions on KASE for the whole Exchange history. The previous record was reached in September 2008, when volume of repo transactions reached KZT2,818.2 bn. or $23,426.5 m. Compared to September 2008 the volume of transactions increased by KZT92.5 bn. ($860.8 m.) or by 3.3%. Relative to October 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT375.7 bn. ($3 307.8 m.) or by 14.8 % (by 15.8 % in dollar terms). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in October on comparable operations totaled 99.9 %, in September 2008 - 98.7%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows: 0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 92.4 % of the sector's turnover (KZT2,689.0 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 81.2% (KZT2,363.4 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 11.2 % (KZT325.6 bn.); 1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method was 7.6 % of the sector's turnover (KZT221.7 bn.), including deals in GS - 1.4 % (KZT41.5 bn.), deals in CS - 6.2 % (KZT180.2 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in September, 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 94.7 % (GS - 84.6 %; CS - 10.1 %); repo by nego method - 5.3 % (GS - 0.6 %; CS - 4.7 %). Under the outmost caution and high distrust conditions the main participants of KASE repo market - Kazakhstan banks continue holding accumulated tenge liquidity, investing in more qualitative instruments - government securities. Note that the major volume of placed GS in October came to these banks and their clients, but the volume of demand on these instruments insignificantly increased supply. Budget payments by results of the quarter were conducted in the analyzed month, which activated the market. The result of described situation became the new record turnover on repo market 3 month in row. TONIA indicator increased insignificantly from 3.06 % APR in September to 3.23 % APR in October. Beginning November 18 minimum reserve requirements for commercial banks have been reduced. According to the National Bank estimation, this reduce will release KZT350 bn. ($2.9 bn), what may insignificantly decreased rates on repo deals in future. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in October 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (6.2 % of the market) are not published by IRBIS due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 81.2 % of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument Volume, Num- Market ------------------------------------- ber (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ----------- ----- ------ KZT_000 1.00 1,000.0 1 0.09 KZT_001 2.50 0.00 10.00 0.70 3.23 987,506.5 2051 84.35 KZT_002 2.25 1.00 6.50 4.45 3.63 51,786.0 82 4.42 KZT_003 3.00 3.00 5.00 4.44 3.80 9,168.0 32 0.78 KZT_007 4.20 4.00 10.50 4.00 5.96 91,259.0 146 7.79 KZT_014 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 1,950.0 2 0.17 KZT_028 6.00 3.95 6.00 6.00 4.43 28,079.0 21 2.40 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ----------- ----- ------ TOTAL 1,170,748.6 2,335 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo with CS - 11.2 % of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBN_090 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 2,070.0 4 1.50 ASBNb10_007 10.00 205.0 1 0.15 ASBNb10_028 11.00 1,293.0 1 0.94 ASBNb3_001 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 276.0 2 0.20 ASBNb3_003 5.20 138.0 1 0.10 ASBNb3_007 9.50 139.0 1 0.10 ASBNb3_014 8.70 120.0 1 0.09 ASBNp1_090 8.00 20.0 1 0.01 ASFI_001 3.00 3.00 8.00 4.50 5.88 1,045.1 13 0.76 ASFI_007 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 2,196.1 5 1.59 ASFI_030 12.00 11.00 14.00 14.00 11.55 19,586.3 32 14.21 ASFIb15_001 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 114.0 3 0.08 ASFIb15_003 5.50 180.0 1 0.13 ASFIb15_007 7.50 7.00 8.00 8.00 7.48 1,264.0 14 0.92 ASFIb15_014 10.50 50.0 1 0.04 ASFIb5_001 4.50 4.00 6.20 5.80 4.99 1,899.0 12 1.38 ASFIb5_003 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 560.0 2 0.41 ASFIb5_007 7.50 7.50 12.00 12.00 8.10 346.0 4 0.25 ASFIb5_014 8.50 99.0 1 0.07 ASFIb9_001 4.50 150.0 1 0.11 ASFIp_028 11.84 11.84 11.84 11.84 11.84 13,822.2 21 10.03 ATFBb3_007 7.80 7.80 8.00 8.00 7.90 789.0 4 0.57 ATFBb3_014 9.00 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.22 831.0 3 0.60 ATFBb3_028 10.50 10.10 10.50 10.10 10.49 848.0 2 0.62 ATFBb4_001 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 400.0 2 0.29 ATFBb4_003 5.00 200.0 1 0.15 ATFBb4_007 7.25 7.25 8.70 8.70 7.80 1,404.0 3 1.02 ATFBb4_014 8.25 8.25 8.50 8.50 8.44 718.0 2 0.52 ATFBb4_028 10.60 10.60 11.00 11.00 10.63 198.0 3 0.14 ATFBb5_028 10.00 10.00 11.00 10.50 10.27 249.0 4 0.18 ATFBb6_001 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 252.0 4 0.18 ATFBb6_028 10.50 10.50 10.60 10.60 10.55 898.0 11 0.65 BTAIb5_001 5.00 5.00 7.80 7.00 6.54 4,559.0 16 3.31 BTAS_001 6.00 1.00 10.00 6.00 7.23 8,320.1 94 6.04 BTAS_003 6.00 6.00 8.00 7.00 6.96 240.0 3 0.17 BTAS_007 10.00 5.00 13.50 7.00 11.69 1,594.3 27 1.16 BTAS_030 12.50 12.50 15.00 12.50 14.37 2,134.1 13 1.55 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 1,000.0 2 0.73 BTASb1_007 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 740.0 2 0.54 BTASb4_001 6.80 6.80 7.80 7.00 7.03 700.0 7 0.51 BTASb4_014 7.50 7.50 8.00 8.00 7.75 760.0 2 0.55 BTASb7_001 3.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 1.23 345.0 2 0.25 BTASb7_007 7.00 7.00 12.00 12.00 9.37 152.0 4 0.11 BTASb7_030 14.00 12.00 15.00 12.50 13.41 2,548.0 10 1.85 BTASb9_001 4.50 3.50 12.00 7.00 7.73 29,696.0 34 21.54 BTASb9_003 5.00 5.00 7.00 7.00 6.67 3,388.0 8 2.46 BTASb9_007 7.00 6.00 8.00 6.00 6.78 1,539.0 8 1.12 BTASb9_014 8.25 6.00 9.00 6.50 8.03 2,281.0 6 1.65 BTASb9_030 10.00 10.00 12.00 10.60 11.11 2,882.0 6 2.09 CCBN_001 4.00 45.0 1 0.03 CCBN_007 7.00 40.0 1 0.03 CCBN_014 9.00 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.28 18.0 2 0.01 CCBN_030 11.50 11.50 12.50 12.50 11.55 425.0 6 0.31 CCBN_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 5,027.0 3 3.65 CCBNb10_030 10.00 10.00 10.50 10.50 10.21 777.0 3 0.56 CCBNb12_007 8.00 8.00 10.00 8.70 8.98 1,551.0 9 1.13 CCBNb13_001 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 188.0 2 0.14 CCBNb13_007 7.25 7.25 8.70 8.70 7.98 377.0 2 0.27 CCBNb13_014 8.50 184.0 1 0.13 CCBNb13_028 10.50 272.0 1 0.20 CCBNb3_014 8.25 132.0 1 0.10 CCBNb3_028 10.60 10.20 10.60 10.20 10.44 248.0 3 0.18 CCBNb9_007 7.80 7.80 8.00 8.00 7.88 213.0 2 0.15 CCBNb9_014 9.50 40.0 1 0.03 CSBNb4_007 7.25 7.25 8.70 8.70 7.73 726.0 3 0.53 CSBNb4_014 8.50 241.0 1 0.17 CSBNb5_001 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 348.0 4 0.25 CSBNb5_003 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 348.0 2 0.25 CSBNb5_007 8.70 174.0 1 0.13 CSBNb5_014 8.50 175.0 1 0.13 CSBNb6_001 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 536.0 3 0.39 CSBNb6_003 5.00 194.0 1 0.14 CSBNb6_007 8.00 8.00 8.70 8.70 8.32 418.0 2 0.30 CSBNb6_014 9.50 8.50 9.50 8.50 9.04 395.0 3 0.29 CSBNb6_028 12.00 73.0 1 0.05 EUBNb3_001 5.00 5.00 6.00 5.00 5.24 396.0 3 0.29 EUBNb3_007 7.50 200.0 1 0.15 EUBNb3_028 12.00 126.0 1 0.09 EXBNb1_007 7.50 8.0 1 0.01 EXBNb2_001 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 222.0 6 0.16 HSBKb7_007 5.00 290.0 1 0.21 HSBKb7_028 10.10 10.00 10.50 10.50 10.38 167.0 3 0.12 HSBKp1_001 4.50 4.50 6.00 6.00 4.74 4,022.0 7 2.92 HSBKp1_003 5.00 844.0 1 0.61 HSBKp1_014 10.00 403.0 1 0.29 KASTb1_028 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 865.0 2 0.63 KKGB_028 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 72.0 2 0.05 KKGBb2_007 7.25 7.25 8.70 8.70 7.74 752.1 3 0.55 KKGBb2_014 7.80 7.80 8.50 8.50 7.98 995.1 2 0.72 KKGBb2_028 10.10 27.0 1 0.02 KZIKb2_028 10.00 68.0 1 0.05 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 137,860.8 501 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 1.4 % of the market ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------ 0 15.00 0.00 15.00 8.00 7.65 502.0 10 2.23 1 5.00 0.01 12.00 5.00 4.44 8,296.4 56 36.85 2 3.50 3.50 6.00 4.00 4.95 529.1 11 2.35 3 9.00 9.00 12.00 12.00 9.34 59.3 3 0.26 4 4.75 3.60 45.63 3.60 5.35 542.5 6 2.41 5 12.50 3.00 12.50 3.50 4.46 2,041.9 16 9.07 6 12.50 4.01 12.50 4.01 7.95 42.0 3 0.19 7 6.00 3.00 6.50 3.00 5.92 5,670.7 66 25.19 9 12.00 17.7 1 0.08 10 2.85 2.85 6.90 6.90 5.87 157.3 2 0.70 11 2.77 2.77 6.00 6.00 3.13 224.4 3 1.00 12 12.50 2.9 1 0.01 13 3.98 182.0 1 0.81 14 8.00 4.50 12.00 4.50 6.90 2,697.9 21 11.98 17 4.16 4.16 4.25 4.25 4.20 337.3 2 1.50 19 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.37 4.37 197.0 2 0.88 21 6.01 6.01 6.17 6.17 6.07 82.7 2 0.37 22 6.90 33.9 1 0.15 27 12.00 4.8 1 0.02 85 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 700.0 4 3.11 162 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 126.2 3 0.56 364 12.50 63.4 1 0.28 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------ TOTAL 22,511.6 216 100 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- [2008-11-26]