ANALYSIS: In September 2008 KASE repo market reached the regular historical maximum

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, October 22, 08/ - In September 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 8,274 deals were registered for a total of KZT2,818.2 bn. or USD23,426.5 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 55.0 % of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in August 2008 - 60.9 %). The mentioned value is the biggest monthly turnover of repo transactions on KASE for the whole Exchange history. The previous record was reached in August 2008, when volume of repo transactions reached KZT2,593.1 bn. or $21,615.6 m. Compared to August 2008 the volume of transactions increased by KZT225.1 bn. ($1,810.9 m.) or by 8.7%. Relative to September 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT494.1 bn. ($4 430.6 m.) or by 21.3 % (by 23.3 % in dollar terms). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in September on comparable operations totaled 98.7 %, in August 2008 - 99.9%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows: 0. the stake of automatic repo transactions was 94.7 % of the sector's turnover (KZT2,667.5 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 84.6% (KZT2,385.3 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 10.1 % (KZT282.2 bn.); 1. the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method was 5.3 % of the sector's turnover (KZT150.7 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.6 % (KZT17.4 bn.), deals in CS - 4.7 % (KZT133.3 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in August, 2008 was as follows: autorepo - 94.8 % (GS - 81.9 %; CS - 12.9 %); repo by nego method - 5.2 % (GS - 0.5 %; CS - 4.7 %). Under the last events, the analyzed period is separated by high turbulence of price parameters on corporate security market, by sharp fall of world stock indexes and investors` unwillingness to invest, expecting for price bottom, Thus, free cash was concentrated on KASE repo floor in September as well as in August. Note the changed turnover structure of KASE repo market. Relative to the beginning of the year the tendency on increasing the stake of autorepo with GS with simultaneous decreasing the stake of autorepo with CS is observed. If the stake of autorepo with GS was equaled to 76.7 % in January 2008 and the stake of autorepo with CS - 16.2 %, then in the analyzed month they made 84.6 % and 10.1 % correspondently. The same is with reduced terms of transactions, especially during strong price parameters fluctuations. IRBIS specialists explained this situation by difficulty in forecasting under pledge instruments future price as well as intentions of participants to protect themselves from contractors` default on obligations risk, considering the bad experience of Russian market, where the volume of default obligations on repo deals made RUB2 bn. TONIA indicator increased from 2.94 % APR in August to 3.06 % APR in September. However, considering abovementioned situation, growth of borrowings` value looks valid. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in September 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (4.7 % of the market) are not published by IRBIS due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 84.6 % of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Num- Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, ber Market (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ----------- ----- ------ KZT_000 3.99 3.99 4.00 4.00 4.00 1,000.0 2 0.08 KZT_001 4.00 0.50 7.00 1.00 3.06 1,077,667.4 2124 90.25 KZT_002 5.30 2.00 5.50 5.50 4.40 33,193.0 25 2.78 KZT_003 4.00 3.50 5.00 4.00 4.01 6,517.0 11 0.55 KZT_007 4.50 1.50 6.00 3.00 4.78 73,517.0 130 6.16 KZT_014 5.00 770.0 1 0.06 KZT_028 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 1,365.0 2 0.11 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ----------- ----- ------ TOTAL 1,194,029.5 2,295 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Automatic repo with CS - 10.1 % of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBNb10_028 11.00 1,250.0 1 0.92 ASBNb7_001 4.50 237.0 1 0.17 ASFI_001 2.50 2.00 6.00 3.00 3.07 3,473.1 16 2.54 ASFI_007 11.00 6.50 11.00 8.00 9.74 5,532.1 19 4.05 ASFI_014 10.00 164.0 1 0.12 ASFI_030 12.00 11.00 12.50 12.00 11.43 17,846.3 27 13.07 ASFIb15001 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 5.65 1,377.0 9 1.01 ASFIb15007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 149.0 3 0.11 ASFIp_001 3.50 1,787.0 1 1.31 ASFIp_007 7.50 1,785.0 1 1.31 ASFIp_028 11.84 11.00 11.84 11.84 11.81 14,854.2 20 10.88 ATFBb3_007 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 389.0 2 0.28 ATFBb3_014 8.25 8.25 8.50 8.25 8.46 232.0 3 0.17 ATFBb3_028 10.00 819.0 1 0.60 ATFBb4_001 4.00 185.0 1 0.14 ATFBb4_007 5.60 140.0 1 0.10 ATFBb4_014 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 358.0 2 0.26 ATFBb5_028 10.00 121.0 1 0.09 BTAS_001 5.00 3.00 6.00 6.00 5.44 7,404.9 48 5.42 BTAS_003 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 558.0 4 0.41 BTAS_007 7.50 5.00 15.00 8.50 7.69 2,729.6 32 2.00 BTAS_030 12.50 9.00 15.00 15.00 14.38 1,760.1 8 1.29 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 14.00 12.00 12.03 7,006.3 16 5.13 BTASb1_007 7.50 6.70 7.50 6.70 7.23 720.0 2 0.53 BTASb3_007 7.00 6.70 7.00 6.70 6.85 205.0 2 0.15 BTASb4_007 7.00 6.70 7.00 6.70 6.85 160.0 2 0.12 BTASb4_014 7.50 300.0 1 0.22 BTASb7_030 13.50 12.50 15.00 12.50 13.21 488.0 4 0.36 BTASb7_090 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,676.0 5 1.23 BTASb9_001 4.00 1.00 4.50 4.50 4.23 2,303.0 14 1.69 BTASb9_003 5.00 5.00 8.20 8.20 6.44 6,600.0 11 4.83 BTASb9_007 8.50 7.00 8.50 7.00 7.99 6,630.0 10 4.86 BTASb9_014 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 3,495.0 9 2.56 BTASb9_030 10.00 10.00 10.20 10.00 10.11 6,814.0 9 4.99 CCBN_007 7.50 5.50 8.00 8.00 6.72 132.0 6 0.10 CCBN_014 9.00 6.00 9.00 9.00 8.29 128.0 5 0.09 CCBN_030 12.00 11.00 12.50 12.50 11.94 4,379.0 6 3.21 CCBN_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 4,589.0 2 3.36 CCBNb10030 10.00 10.00 10.50 10.50 10.11 797.0 3 0.58 CCBNb12007 8.00 8.00 10.00 8.00 8.57 508.0 5 0.37 CCBNb13001 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 170.0 2 0.12 CCBNb13014 10.50 282.0 1 0.21 CCBNb13028 10.50 271.0 1 0.20 CCBNb3_014 8.00 8.00 10.50 8.00 8.23 288.0 3 0.21 CCBNb3_028 10.50 10.00 10.50 10.00 10.11 114.0 2 0.08 CCBNb9_014 8.50 127.0 1 0.09 CSBNb6_003 5.00 224.0 1 0.16 CSBNb6_007 7.50 7.50 8.00 8.00 7.83 661.0 3 0.48 EUBNb3_007 7.00 6.70 7.00 7.00 6.86 965.0 5 0.71 EXBNb1_007 5.00 350.0 1 0.26 EXBNb1_014 9.00 9.0 1 0.01 HSBKb10007 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 240.0 3 0.18 HSBKb7_014 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 26.0 2 0.02 HSBKb7_028 10.00 10.00 10.25 10.25 10.20 156.0 2 0.11 HSBKp1_001 4.00 8.0 1 0.01 HSBKp1_007 7.50 5.00 7.50 7.50 6.38 619.0 11 0.45 KASTb1_028 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 865.0 2 0.63 KKGBb2_014 7.50 7.50 8.25 8.25 7.53 1,532.1 4 1.12 KZIKb2_007 6.50 10.0 1 0.01 KZIKb2_014 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 128.0 2 0.09 KZIKb3_028 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 83.0 2 0.06 KZTCb1_007 6.50 90.0 1 0.07 KZTK_001 4.00 4.00 6.00 6.00 5.25 376.1 10 0.28 KZTKp_001 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00 5.13 236.0 8 0.17 NFBN_001 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 1,548.0 21 1.13 ORDB_028 18.00 14.50 18.00 14.50 16.21 962.0 11 0.70 ORDB_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 120.0 2 0.09 ORDBb2_028 13.50 25.0 1 0.02 ORDBp_028 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 168.0 2 0.12 PRKRb2_001 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 2,000.0 2 1.47 PRKRb2_003 6.00 500.0 1 0.37 PRKRb2_007 4.75 740.0 1 0.54 PRKRb2_014 6.50 84.0 1 0.06 PRKRb2_028 11.00 3,749.0 1 2.75 RDGZ_001 7.50 5.50 7.50 5.50 7.00 668.0 5 0.49 RDGZ_007 7.50 5.00 12.00 9.30 7.19 4,857.1 18 3.56 RDGZ_028 11.00 78.0 1 0.06 RGBRb4_028 12.00 22.0 1 0.02 RGBRb5_003 10.00 100.0 1 0.07 RGBRb5_007 12.00 7.00 12.00 7.00 11.93 365.0 4 0.27 RGBRb5_028 12.00 134.0 1 0.10 RGBRb6_001 4.00 4.00 6.00 6.00 4.65 620.0 4 0.45 RGBRb6_003 12.00 117.0 1 0.09 RGBRb6_028 11.50 40.0 1 0.03 TEBN_001 6.50 5.0 1 0.00 TEBN_007 7.50 7.50 10.00 10.00 9.35 441.0 8 0.32 TEBN_030 12.50 51.0 1 0.04 TEBNb16014 10.00 7.0 1 0.01 TEBNp_007 7.50 7.50 10.00 10.00 9.45 154.0 4 0.11 TEBNp_030 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 130.0 3 0.10 TSBN_030 11.00 10.00 11.00 11.00 10.97 916.0 9 0.67 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 136,513.0 491 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.6 % of the market ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------ 1 3.00 3.00 8.00 3.50 5.08 2,795.7 30 26.85 4 8.00 6.50 8.00 8.00 7.45 787.7 7 7.57 5 6.10 2.50 6.10 2.50 5.70 498.9 5 4.79 7 4.00 4.00 6.50 6.00 5.83 1,944.4 16 18.67 8 5.56 34.0 1 0.33 10 29.20 29.20 29.20 29.20 29.20 7.1 2 0.07 11 11.00 28.0 1 0.27 13 6.27 122.0 1 1.17 15 0.03 18.7 1 0.18 16 6.69 80.0 1 0.77 18 6.89 70.0 1 0.67 22 4.00 45.0 1 0.43 27 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 244.0 2 2.34 28 6.26 6.26 10.00 10.00 6.55 433.9 5 4.17 29 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 431.0 6 4.14 30 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 288.2 3 2.77 31 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 192.5 2 1.85 33 3.00 140.0 1 1.34 35 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 801.3 9 7.70 42 6.52 6.18 6.52 6.18 6.47 118.1 2 1.13 62 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 198.7 2 1.91 181 4.86 0.00 4.86 0.00 3.43 1,133.3 12 10.88 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------ ------ TOTAL 10,412.4 111 100 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- [2008-10-22]